Hurricane trackers have increased the threat of Storm Patty, revealing that it has a 90 percent chance of forming in the coming days.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a disturbance in the Caribbean that could strengthen as it moves toward the center or west, where conditions are optimal for development.
Leading hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said: “Next week, most of the wind shear will shift north, so it will basically create a pocket of high ocean temperatures, high humidity and very high wind shear. low that will be favorable for the tropical areas”. development.’
There are two potential paths this storm could take: one to the west and the other to the north, according to AccuWeather.
The western route is unlikely to affect the United States. If the storm moves north, it could reach southern Florida.
‘Storms in the Caribbean usually move north or northeast in November. “This means Florida residents and visitors (including the Gulf Coast) to the Carolinas will have to closely monitor development,” DaSilva said.
This has led the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to slightly increase the chances of a tropical disturbance forming in the next seven days.
AccuWeather meteorologists say there is a 90 percent chance a hurricane will form in the Caribbean this weekend or early next weekend, which could affect the US.
“Even if a tropical storm forms and moves toward Mexico or Central America, changing wind directions can turn that storm toward the northeast and toward Florida later,” DaSilva added.
But regardless of whether a hurricane forms, Caribbean islands can expect rough seas and heavy rain next week as this system arrives.
This storm has been slow to organize due to the strong wind shear in the area.
‘It has created a very hostile environment for rain and thunderstorms to organize into a tropical threat. “There’s not a lot of dry air out there, so it’s really just the wind shear that’s been slowing things down,” DaSilva explained.
But that wind shear is expected to change next week, creating a “pocket” of favorable conditions for hurricane development.
If this storm begins to organize, it will do so slowly, AccuWeather experts said.
This is typical of storms that develop in the Central American Gyre; a large, swollen area of low pressure can be a source of tropical development early and late in the season, according to The Weather Channel.
But if it becomes a hurricane, it could strengthen quickly.
There are two potential paths this storm could take: one to the west and the other to the north. If the storm moves north, it could affect southern Florida
Hurricane Oscar was an example of this. This system rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a hurricane in a matter of hours.
As for when exactly Hurricane Patty could reach South Florida, experts say it’s too early to tell.
AccuWeather will be able to provide an updated forecast on the direction and possible landfall of this storm as it develops.
If it moves into the Sunshine State, residents will have to prepare for their fourth named storm since August.
Hurricane Patty would arrive on the heels of Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton, which made landfall in Florida in August, September and October, respectively.
The state is still recovering from the devastation caused by Milton, which occurred just two weeks after Helene.
This Category 3 storm hit Florida with winds over 100 mph, up to 18 inches of rain, and devastating flooding.
It also triggered 150 tornado warnings across the state and left more than three million homes and businesses without power.
Authorities estimate the storm caused $50 billion in damage and claimed the lives of at least 14 people.
Milton was the fifth hurricane to make landfall on the Gulf Coast this season and the 13th named storm overall.
As the Atlantic hurricane season draws to a close, AccuWeather meteorologists have warned that up to three more named storms could form before it officially ends on November 30.
There is little risk of direct impacts along the Gulf Coast to Alabama, with a possible path toward Florida and the East Coast.
‘We may even see a tropical storm in December this year. “It doesn’t happen very often, but very warm sea surface temperatures could make it possible this year,” DaSilva said previously.
