On Tuesday, Americans will decide whether Vice President Kamala Harris will be the first woman president or whether former President Donald Trump will win a second term.
The economy, abortion, January 6, and the southern border will influence how Americans vote. But experts say another factor will play a big role in their decision: the weather.
AccuWeather meteorologists have issued a severe thunderstorm and flooding warning on Election Day for much of the central United States, including the crucial state of Michigan.
“Torrential rain, localized flash flooding and the risk of lightning can cause problems for workers and voters waiting in long lines at the polls, as well as travel delays,” the alert reads.
Oklahoma is currently under a tornado warning after intense storms crossed the state Saturday night and Sunday. It is unclear whether the threat will extend into Tuesday, but it is possible that bad weather could affect voting in this state.
And it’s not just logistical barriers that bad weather poses.
A political strategist told DailyMail.com that a stormy day can also affect the mood of voters and tilt undecided voters towards a particular candidate.
When an undecided voter goes to the polls feeling pessimistic, they may be more inclined to vote for a candidate whose campaign is based on pessimism, Bradley Tusk explained.
It’s a general rule that rain benefits the Republican ticket, Tusk said. Storms across central US could give Trump a boost on Tuesday
He stated that Trump’s campaign strategy falls into that pessimistic category, while Harris’ messages revolve around optimism and hope for the future.
Therefore, “if you were to vote on a miserable day and you were really undecided, from a purely subconscious point of view, you could say that would benefit Trump,” Tusk said.
In fact, it’s a general rule that rain benefits the Republican ticket, Tusk said.
But that’s not because all Republicans run pessimistic presidential campaigns.
“Lower voter turnout works better for Republicans,” Tusk said.
This is because more people tend to vote for Democrats, which is why this party sometimes wins the popular vote, but not the electoral vote, he explained.
Research has shown that rainfall negatively affects voter turnout.
One study estimates that for every centimeter of rain that falls on voting day, turnout drops 0.95 percentage points.
Rain can cause a bad mood. When undecided voters go to the polls feeling pessimistic, they may be more inclined to vote for a candidate whose campaign is based on pessimism.
While this may seem like an incremental impact, heavy rain or extreme weather in a swing state could, in theory, alter the results of an election.
While the central US will be mired in storms, AccuWeather has forecast warm, dry conditions on Election Day across much of the East Coast and Southeast.
According to Tusk, this could increase voter turnout and morale, thus increasing support for Harris.
Parts of the Rocky Mountains could see rain and snow, and temperatures will be cold across the West and Southwest on Tuesday, possibly resulting in a slight lead for Trump.
But Election Day weather in the seven swing states (Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada) is really “the only weather that matters,” Tusk said.
As for the reason: “Ultimately, it’s because of the Electoral College,” he said.
‘The United States does not determine the president by who wins the most votes. “It determines who wins by 270 Electoral College votes, which are allocated by state,” Tusk said.
Therefore, a poor weather forecast in Michigan could have a significant impact on the election results, helping Trump win this critical battleground state.
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, visited North Carolina after Hurricane Helene. This storm could have a strong influence on the 2024 elections
As North Carolinians pick up the pieces of their homes and communities, it is safe to assume this will have a negative impact on voter turnout, although this remains to be seen.
And Hurricane Helene’s devastating impact on the swing state of North Carolina could also prove influential, Tusk said.
‘North Carolina is one of the seven states that will determine who will be the next president of the United States,’ he said. “There really isn’t much more going on than this.”
The storm made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on September 26.
Of the six southeastern states it affected, North Carolina was the hardest hit by the devastation and also happens to be the only swing state affected.
About half of the total deaths occurred in North Carolina, which was hit by torrential rains, widespread flooding and high winds.
State officials have reported 96 storm-related deaths and estimate Helene caused at least $53 billion in damage and recovery needs.
As North Carolinians pick up the pieces of their homes, it’s safe to assume this will have a negative impact on voter turnout, although this remains to be seen, Tusk said.
Western North Carolina can expect between 0.01 and 0.50 inches of rain on Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.
This could dampen morale among voters who do go to the polls and further increase support for Trump.
Some experts believe that voting day conditions have influenced previous elections, although this is not so much a fact as a political tradition, Tusk cautioned.
During the 1960 election, when John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon, voting day was clear and sunny across the United States. Some experts speculate that this gave the Democratic ticket an advantage.
And in 2000, when George W. Bush ran against Al Gore, it was rainy on Election Day in Florida, the swing state for this election.
Bad weather reduced voter turnout in some Gore strongholds, such as Pensacola. This may have helped secure Bush’s presidency.
