How Patriots can move up in 2025 first-round draft order in Week 16

What should Patriots fans be watching in Week 16 regarding the team’s position and draft order scenarios?

Let’s analyze it.

The Patriots have a good chance of moving up to the No. 2 spot.

The easiest way for the Patriots to move up from No. 3 to No. 2 in the first-round draft order is to lose to the Buffalo Bills on the road on Sunday and for the Las Vegas Raiders to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

The Patriots are the Bills’ biggest underdogs, and given how incredible Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has been playing, it would be pretty shocking if New England pulled off the upset. The Raiders aren’t very good, but they have a favorable matchup against Mac Jones and the Jaguars. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) model gives the Raiders a 55.9 percent chance of beating the Jaguars.

The Patriots could also move up to the No. 2 spot if the Raiders lost but the Giants won their game against the Falcons. Although the Falcons are giving rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. his first career start, ESPN’s FPI still gives Atlanta a chance 63.4 percent chance of defeating New York.

It’s possible the Patriots could move up to the No. 1 pick, but that would require them losing to the Bills, combined with the Raiders and Giants winning.

• Giants in falcons: Sunday at 1 pm ET on FOX

• Patriots at Bills: Sunday at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

• Jaguars in Raiders: Sunday at 4:25 pm ET on CBS

Why it is important to choose between the first two

There could be a pretty big difference in value between the No. 2 and No. 3 picks this year, and that’s because the class of 2025 only has two quarterback prospects, Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shadeur Sanders , which is worth taking with a top. -five selections. That could change in the coming months, but right now it’s a pretty weak QB class.

The Patriots don’t need a quarterback because it looks like they already hit a home run with the selection of Maye. But in terms of trade value, it’s much better to have one of those two picks and be able to offer another team a chance at a franchise QB. The No. 3 pick will still have value, especially if teams covet Colorado WR/CB and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, but it won’t have the same value as the top two picks because of the quarterbacks.

Teams are more likely to trade for a potential star quarterback than a highly rated wide receiver or cornerback. Case in point: In the last 10 drafts, none of the wide receivers and only two cornerbacks were chosen with a top-three pick.

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That’s why it would be great for the Patriots if the Raiders and/or Giants won at least one more game. If these three teams lose, the highest the Patriots can pick is No. 3. One more win by the Giants or Raiders is required for the Patriots to move up.

What are the chances of the Patriots moving up to the No. 2 spot or higher? Pretty good, according to ESPN’s FPI, which projects the Patriots will end up getting the No. 2 pick, along with a 23.6 percent chance of moving up to the No. 1 spot.

The last time the Patriots had a top-three pick in consecutive drafts was in 1993 (Drew Bledsoe, No. 1) and 1994 (Willie McGinest, No. 4).

Summary

The best-case scenario for the Patriots on Sunday is a close loss to the Bills.

It is important that Maye plays well and that the team as a whole shows improvement in key areas. New England has to force more turnovers, reduce penalties, protect Maye better, generate more consistent pressure, etc.

But the score is what really matters. One more win in the final three games has the potential to move the Patriots down a couple spots in the draft order, and that could have a really negative impact on the team’s offseason.

If you’re a Patriots fan and want to see the team’s draft position improve this weekend, here’s what you’re rooting for: