Britain is on the brink of recession. The revised figures show there was zero growth in the three months between July (when Labor was elected) and September.
If the economy contracted this last quarter, that means we are close to two consecutive quarters of negative growth and in recession territory.
UK growth figures also suggest that living standards fell in that period, with GDP per capita falling rather than remaining stable as originally believed.
What’s more, living standards could be revised further downwards as officials update net migration figures next month.
As if that weren’t grim enough, recruiters warn the UK is already in a “recruitment recession”, while the Confederation of British Industry says we are facing “the worst of all worlds”, with companies reducing production, cutting hiring and preparing for higher prices. next year.
To make matters even worse, the cost of public borrowing has risen to levels not seen for over a year as investors lose confidence in the UK. Hopes for further interest cuts have faded because inflation is on the move again.
A budget for growth? Rachel Reeves delayed her statement until October, but spent months talking about the economy; The measure backfired.
So what do you think Rachel Reeves had to say about this cheery midwinter forecast? These figures are only “fanning our fire to help workers.”
What planet is Reeves on? And his persistent use of “working people” is not only irritating but deeply condescending.
It takes a particularly dense Chancellor to inherit an economy that is quite poor – but showing healthy signs of growth – and send it into a tailspin in just under six months.
Yet that is precisely what Reeves has managed to do since taking office.
First came his constant, and often vindictive, criticism of the economy, a move that has undermined confidence rather than boosting it. Secondly came the disastrous Budget with a record £40bn tax rise and increased borrowing and spending.
You reap what you sow. The Chancellor has made mistake after mistake, and many policies simply don’t add up. Take Northern Ireland’s damaging employer tax increase, which won’t rise as much because businesses will stop hiring.
The abolition of business property relief for small businesses and changes to inheritance tax for farmers will be devastating for growth and food security.
VAT on school fees implies higher costs for the State. These were all rookie schoolboy mistakes. Some might say jokes.
In any other administration, Treasury experts or economists would have discarded them before the Budget as unviable.
The strange thing is that Reeves does not seem to have made an effort to bring in heavyweight economists to help him, as Tony Blair and even Gordon Brown did.
Perhaps he believed too much in his own myth about being a Bank of England economist? To date, Keir Starmer has dropped the economy management to 11th place.
He has not meddled as many prime ministers like to do, either because he has no idea or because he is not interested.
But that may change as Reeves’ reputation is in tatters. In a matter of months, she went from being a one-off success among the business community to potentially going down in the history books as one of the worst chancellors.
He could still change course. However, there is no sign of that. Quite the opposite.
The question now is whether Starmer is ruthless enough to take a shot at the country’s first female chancellor, and perhaps one of its shortest in office.
The books are now open for bets on how long it will last.