How Hurricane Helene could swing the election after storm battered two crucial swing states

Hurricane Helene, which devastated the southeastern United States and claimed more than 185 lives, may also affect this year’s presidential election.

The hurricane was the first catastrophe in United States history to affect two crucial states, North Carolina and Georgia, just six weeks before the presidential election. according to Politico.

It particularly devastated heavily Republican areas of the two states, giving Vice President Kamala Harris a potential advantage over former President Donald Trump.

But it also affected some predominantly Democratic areas, such as Buncombe and Watauga counties in North Carolina.

As a result, the storm could “drastically change who is in the electorate,” said Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University.

“In a state like North Carolina, where margins matter, then every little adjustment could be the one that makes the difference,” he said, noting that North Carolina is “right on the knife edge between red and blue.” .

In 2020, Trump won 61 percent of the vote in North Carolina counties that were declared a disaster area after Hurricane Helene. He also won 54 percent of the vote in Georgia’s disaster-affected counties, Politico reports.

Polls now show Trump leading Harris in both North Carolina and Georgia by just one percentage point, well within the margin of error.

But the storm may have completely destroyed polling places, according to W. Travis Doss Jr., executive director of the Augusta-Richmond County Board of Elections in Georgia. telling CNN: ‘We have no power. We don’t have water. Mobile service is limited.

And if a voter’s polling place has been changed while they’re already struggling to rebuild their community, “then maybe that’s the last straw that makes voting too much for them,” said Kevin Morris, a voting policy expert at the Brennan Center for Justice. .

Officials in both North Carolina and Georgia now face crucial decisions about how to help people register to vote and get to the polls after massive flooding destroyed roads, shut down cities and scattered residents.

Some of those decisions include whether to extend next week’s voter registration deadline, allow more time for voters to cast absentee ballots and establish new polling locations in areas where flooding destroyed roads.

North Carolina state records obtained by Politico show that nearly 40,000 absentee ballots have been mailed to voters in 25 counties that were devastated by the storm, but so far, fewer than 1,000 have been returned.

County elections offices now plan to assess damage to early voting sites next week to determine “what facilities will not be available,” said Karen Brinson Bell, executive director of the State Board of Elections.

Then, when the state legislature meets Wednesday, it will vote on whether to give counties money for emergency polling places and extend both the Oct. 11 registration deadline and the Election Day deadline for receive ballots by mail.

In the meantime, Bell said, the board is focusing its efforts on reopening election offices “so that absentee ballot applications can be processed and voter registrations can be entered into the system,” Bell said. Asheville Citizen Times reports.

Some counties will also receive emergency kits, which Bell called “election offices in a box” so they can operate despite phone and internet problems.

Bell also suggested the board could set up temporary early voting sites in tents in parking lots, as the state did when Hurricane Dorian hit in 2019, and is considering an emergency authorization to expand who can be a poll worker.

“Mountain people are strong and the electoral people who serve them are resilient and tough too,” Bell said. “Let’s just go back to 2020, when we held an incredibly successful election with record turnout during the COVID pandemic.”

‘We have also battled hurricanes and tropical storms, and still held safe elections. And we will do everything in our power to do it again.”

Meanwhile, in Georgia, where Monday is the last day to register to vote, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger fiance The “physical infrastructure” will be available when early voting takes place on October 15.

Any county that “has to relocate early voting locations” must notify residents, he added.

“We have to let first responders finish their jobs, but as power is restored and polling places can be tested, we will ensure the upcoming elections are safe and convenient for all Georgia voters,” Raffensperger said.

States have previously extended deadlines for registering to vote and submitting absentee ballots, opening new polling locations and allowing displaced residents to vote by email or fax, with varying results.

TO 2022 study by Morris found that voter turnout fell below historical averages in the predominantly Republican Florida Panhandle after Hurricane Michael demolished the area in October 2018.

He said that although Florida made absentee voting easier, many residents were confused by the state’s decision to close and consolidate polling places, leaving them not knowing where to go on Election Day.

Then, when Hurricane Sandy hit the tri-state area a week before the 2012 presidential election, New Jersey’s Republican lieutenant governor, Kim Guadagno, ruled that anyone displaced by the storm could be designated an overseas voter, allowing you to cast your vote by fax and email.

The decision overwhelmed county governments, which were inundated with thousands of fax and email requests.

TO Rutgers Law School Report 2014 criticized Guadagno’s decision, saying that remote voting caused “chaos” and made electronic votes vulnerable to hacking.

“Although emergency measures were justified, voting online and by email was not the solution,” he concluded.

Still another study found that Sandy made “little difference” in determining how New York City residents would vote, because many were highly motivated to re-elect former President Barack Obama.

When people view an election as “historic” or as potentially having “lasting effects” on their community, “they are willing to endure costs such as cold temperatures, long lines, and even traveling to distant polling locations,” the researchers wrote. .