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Mastery in defeat.
Here’s how Corbin Burnes, this winter’s top free agent pitcher, finished his 2024 season.
In Game 1 of the wild card series against the visiting Kansas City Royals, the big right-hander was sensational, allowing just one run in eight brilliant frames. It turned out to be the longest start of the entire postseason. However, Burnes’ Orioles couldn’t score, not even once, so he left Camden Yards that night with a hard-luck loss, his teammates congratulating him and apologizing to him at the same time.
Despite the unsatisfactory result, Burnes’ year as an Oriole was a success. Acquired from Milwaukee in February for a pair of prospects, he generally performed like the ace Baltimore hoped he would be. And while the Orioles are reportedly interested in a reunion, they will face serious competition to employ Burnes’ services, as the 2021 National League Cy Young will have a contract in the $200 million range.
But is Burnes worth that kind of investment? What are the reasons for concern? Can his next team count on him as a true number one starter? Or is there a decline around the corner?
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A look back at Burnes’ 2024
Burnes was very good through the first four months of the season, pitching to a 2.47 ERA in 22 starts despite less encouraging peripheral statistics. Most notably, his strikeout rate dropped to a career low. In the end, that caught up with him. In August, Burnes came under fire, allowing 20 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings in his first four starts of the month.
But in his August 28 outing, Burnes made a huge adjustment. He altered the release point of his signature cutter, an offering he throws nearly 50% of the time. The pitch had gained some velocity, making it have more carry and less horizontal movement, making it much less unique and much more hittable. The change brought immediate results.
In September, Burnes ditched the short-range slider he had been using all year in favor of a longer libero, to great effect. Armed with a revitalized cutter and a new breaking ball, Burnes’ strikeout rate skyrocketed from 18.5% in August to 27.7% in September and October. And although he only struck out three batters in that magnificent wild card start, Burnes was in complete control and opted to pitch to contact so he could work deeper into the game.
What to make of Burnes’ strikeout rate?
Late-season surge aside, Burnes’ strikeout rate has gradually declined since his 2021 Cy Young season. That trend has occurred despite there being no obvious decline in Burnes’ stuff or velocity. While his cutter has maintained its power over the years, hitters seem to gradually adapt to the pitch; Its oscillation and failure rate has fallen steadily year after year, falling from 33.2% in 2021 to 19% in 2024.
Because? It probably has something to do with the tone becoming less unique over time. In 2021, only seven starting pitchers threw a cutter faster than 91 mph. By 2024, that number had more than tripled, with 24 starters throwing their cutter that hard. Burnes’ cutter remains something of a unicorn (only Reds pitcher Graham Ashcraft threw his cutter harder in 2024), but the league as a whole is certainly becoming…more Burnes.
Volume is value
When Burnes won his Cy Young in 2021, beating out Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, he did so despite pitching just 167 innings, compared to Wheeler’s 213. That result sparked widespread debate about the merits of volume versus effectiveness. It’s ironic, then, that since 2021, only two pitchers, Logan Webb and Aaron Nola, have logged more innings than Burnes.
In an era where starting pitchers aren’t expected to work deep during games, Burnes is a relative outlier. Only eight other pitchers totaled more than 190 innings last season. Only 22 other pitchers made at least 32 starts. Simply being available can be extraordinarily valuable. Frankie Montas, who posted a 4.84 ERA in 30 starts in 2024, just signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the Mets. Posting pays, which is good news for a horse like Burnes looking to cash in.
What teams are possible candidates for Burnes?
New York Mets: Sixty percent of the team’s 2024 rotation (Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana) are free agents. President of baseball operations David Stearns filled one of those positions with the signing of Montas, but the Mets still need a top starter and have plenty of money to spend. Remember, Burnes and Stearns were together in Milwaukee for several years.
Baltimore Orioles: The most obvious choice is usually the team that just signed a player; The Orioles are the only team with a hole the size of Corbin Burnes. Baltimore hasn’t awarded a multi-year free agent contract since 2018, but a new ownership group led by billionaire David Rubenstein should have a greater appetite to spend.
Boston Red Sox: If Juan Soto, the winter’s biggest prize, signs anywhere but Boston, Red Sox fans will be clamoring for a top-rotation arm. And while left-hander Max Fried probably fits better with Boston’s right-handed rotation, no Red Sox fan would be furious about adding Burnes.
Toronto Blue Jays: As with the Red Sox, Burnes could be Soto’s pivot in Toronto. Also like Boston, a lefty would make more sense, as would spending money on a hitter.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Does signing Blake Snell prevent the Dodgers from signing Corbin Burnes? Probably, but would anyone be surprised if the deep-pocketed giant kept the cash flowing? Not at all.
Washington Nationals: Are the Nationals ready to win in 2025? Probably not. But they weren’t ready in 2011 either, when they signed Jayson Werth to a massive deal. There is probably (understandable) fear of giving another long contract to a pitcher after the two catastrophes of Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg, but Burnes would help bring the Nationals closer to contention.
Overall, Burnes is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball; maybe top five if you believe his late summer adjustments were for real. His ability to make changes during the season says a lot about his adaptability and athletic intelligence. Not many pitchers could pull off something like that.
And while predicting pitcher injuries is a game of drunken roulette, Burnes has been as reliable as anyone. Obviously it’s not ideal if his strikeout rate continues to decline, particularly if you’re paying him $230 million, but Burnes has proven he can rack up enough outs without knocking hitters down. The floor here is relatively high and the ceiling, as demonstrated in the joker, is still supersonic.
He won’t always be an ace, but for now, that’s what Corbin Burnes is.