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House prices are expected to fall by 5% this year and by 11% in 2021, Cebr warns

Property prices across the country will continue to fall in the coming years despite Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s chance reduction, new research suggests.

The Center for Economics and Business Research has predicted that house prices will fall by 5 percent this year and by another 10.6 percent in 2021. The CEBR expects that house prices will only ‘at least’ return to pre-pandemic levels. 2023.

The bleak forecast of the housing market will encourage potential buyers through the min-Budget stamp duty cut in a dilemma about whether or not to plunge into the market or wait for prices to fall.

Forecast: The Center for Economics and Business Research expects house prices to fall by an average of 5% this year

Forecast: The Center for Economics and Business Research expects house prices to fall by an average of 5% this year

On Wednesday, the Chancellor announced that buyers will no longer have to pay stamp duty on the first £ 500,000 of a home’s purchase price until March 31 next year.

Previously, the threshold where stamp duties started was £ 125,000 in England and Northern Ireland, or £ 300,000 for new buyers if they bought a home worth less than £ 500,000.

The tax break saves buyers a whopping £ 15,000, which increases deposits – and thus affordability – or goes to home improvement funds.

The CEBR believes that the sharpest fall in house prices will occur in the last quarter of this year, once the government’s job retention scheme expires and holiday payments on mortgages are curbed. Thousands of jobs have already been lost in recent months and many more are expected.

Property prices are expected to rise again in the third quarter of 2021, but “a V-shaped recovery in the housing market is not expected,” said the Cebr.

Predictions: House prices predictions from the Rics published today

Predictions: House prices predictions from the Rics published today

Predictions: House prices predictions from the Rics published today

Sales: Fluctuations in the sale of property transactions in the UK since 2000, according to the Rics

Sales: Fluctuations in the sale of property transactions in the UK since 2000, according to the Rics

Sales: Fluctuations in the sale of property transactions in the UK since 2000, according to the Rics

The think tank believes the stamp duty holiday will shave around £ 4,400 off average property sales, leading to a 6 percent increase in transactions, representing an additional sale of 41,000 between now and March 31. About 60,000 property sales were also brought forward later this year.

“Rising transaction volumes will bring much needed life to the housing market in the coming months,” said the Cebr.

The magnitude of the recession Britain is facing has intensified in recent months, with the Bank of England previously predicting house prices could fall by 16 percent this year.

Other predictions predict a more modest fall in prices. Real estate agency Knight Frank thinks house prices could fall 7 percent this year, while the EY Item Club predicts a 3 percent decline in the coming months, before stability resumes at the beginning of the year.

With the holiday of mortgage loans ending in September and the job preservation schedule closing for good in October, the CEBR expects that the major downturn will be felt by many households towards the final stages of the year. .

The think tank does not believe that measures to protect the employment of the chancellor announced on Wednesday will be enough to prevent ‘many’ other companies from firing staff to cut costs.

Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick gave the housing market and home builders the green light to get moving across England from May 13.

Since then, there have been some signs that the market is coming back to life for now, a rigorous survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors suggests.

The Rics findings published today show that there were signs of a “recovery” in the housing market last month. The survey’s newly agreed sales measure reached a positive position for the first time since February, with a net balance of +43 percent of respondents indicating an increase in transactions in June.

Buyer demand, new offers, and completed sales levels all rose in June, the Rics said. But industry experts remain “relatively cautious” about whether this peak in activity will continue.

Respondents now expect a flat to marginally negative trend in national house price inflation over the next twelve months as a whole, the Rics said.

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