According to insiders of the negotiations, the historic promise to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) could be abandoned during the talks in Egypt.
The first drafts of the pact emerging at the United Nations Cop 27 meeting in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, are expected to be issued tonight.
But the promise that the Earth should not warm more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) could be scrapped, as China insists the wording be scrapped.
Negotiators say historic pledge to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) could be abandoned during Egypt talks
CO2 emissions from coal, gas and oil are on track to reach record levels by 2022
There are no signs of a decline in global carbon dioxide emissions this year, according to a new report.
We are currently releasing record levels of the greenhouse gas, which urgently needs to be reduced if we are to limit warming to 2.7°F (1.5°C).
This limit was one of the goals of the Paris Agreement and if our current emissions levels persist, there is a 50 percent chance that it will be exceeded in nine years.
These stark warnings are in the annual Global Carbon Budget report, prepared by more than 100 international scientists.
It provides an in-depth look at the amount of carbon dioxide emitted as a result of human activities and forecasts totals for the end of the year.
“This year we see another increase in global fossil CO2 emissions, while we need a rapid decrease,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, who led the study.
The Cop – short for Conference of the Parties – is an annual effort to negotiate a global agreement to curb climate change, attended by some 45,000 delegates from 200 countries.
China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases by volume, is behind the scenes urging countries to aim for 2°C (3.6°F) as it would require less drastic restrictions on its industry.
The 1.5c limit emerged during the Paris climate talks in 2015, when it was agreed that countries should limit warming to “well below 2°C (3.6°F), preferably to 1.5°C ( 2.7°F)’.
US climate envoy John Kerry has made thinly veiled excavations that China wants to remove the limit.
On Friday, he blamed countries “whose 2030 targets have not yet aligned with the Paris temperature target,” in what has been interpreted as a dig in China.
Former President of Ireland Mary Robinson told the Irish Times: ‘I have been concerned that there is some attempt to say that 1.5°C may no longer be feasible. That’s not acceptable.’
Many scientists say 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) is probably out of reach, as the world’s countries have emitted too much greenhouse gas for this to happen, with the United Nations Environment Program predicting that the world will course could be moving closer to 2.8°C (5°F).
Alden Meyer, a long-time observer of UN climate meetings with the environmental think tank E3G, said that if the G20 countries meeting in Balil increase their commitment to the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target, led by Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, reaffirm that will strengthen the goal.
But if it is not reaffirmed, the promise is more likely to be revoked.
“Whatever the two presidents decide in Bali will play straight into the endgame here in Sharm El-Sheikh,” Meyer said.
During the climate talks in Glasgow last year, Alok Sharma, the police chief, said the talks had retained the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F), saying that the target was still current, but ‘the pulse is weak’.
“May I remind all of our friends that at Cop26 we have indeed decided to join forces to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C (2.7°F),’ he said.
The Cop – short for Conference of the Parties – is an annual effort to negotiate a global agreement to curb climate change, attended by some 45,000 delegates from 200 countries
Humanity is ‘unequivocally faced with a climate emergency’, the report warns
With carbon dioxide levels at their highest ever recorded and temperatures continuing to rise, Earth has officially reached “code red,” a new report warned.
In the report “World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency 2022,” researchers warn that humanity is “unequivocally faced with a climate emergency.”
They analyzed 35 planetary vital signs used to track climate change, including tree loss from fires and extreme heat, and found that 16 of these signs are extremely extreme.
Read more here
He added: ‘We have to keep that agreement. We cannot allow a relapse.
“But we’re already at 1.1°C (1.98°F) degrees of global warming and I know I don’t need to remind you all of the impact of that around the world.
“Even at 1.5°C (2.7°F) we will still have devastating results for many millions. As our friend from Bangladesh reminded us, 1.5°C (2.7°F) should be a red line. And this cannot be the COP where we lose 1.5°C (2.7°F).
“So this is what we have to fight for and every fraction of a degree definitely makes a difference.”
He added that the difference between 1.5°C (2.7°F) and higher levels of warming is the difference “between a bearable existence and an impossible future.”
And that 2°C (3.6°F) would be a ‘death sentence’ for many countries around the world.
A reality-check report released last week at COP27 showed that CO2 emissions – which must have fallen by nearly 50 percent by 2030 to reach the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target in the game – of coal, gas and oil is on track to achieve record levels in 2022.
The world’s 46 least developed countries, known to the UN as the LDCs, have the most to lose from global warming of more than 1.5°C (2.7°F), and have defended themselves vocally.
“COP27 must send a strong political signal and show that the world is united in the fight against climate change,” said Madeleine Diouf Sarr, from Senegal, chair of the LDC group.
“This means that at COP27, the target of 1.5°C (2.7°F) must be kept within reach by making strong commitments to halve emissions by 2030,” she told the BBC.
Also at stake during the climate talks is a discussion to set up a fund that will pay for the losses and damage of countries affected by climate change.
Developing countries can withdraw from the negotiations if the issue of loss and damage is not addressed in the draft text of the treaty, insiders said.