IWhen Kenzi, an advertising worker in Shanghai, bought an electric vehicle in November, she didn’t even think about the environmental benefits. She had read Elon Musk’s biography and thought the Tesla 3 looked nice. She also knew that by buying an electric vehicle she could avoid the long wait and cost of getting license plates, which are rationed by the government.
“It’s not easy to get a license plate in Shanghai, but when you buy an electric vehicle you get it for free,” he said.
“The country has a target of selling electric vehicles annually, but consumers, honestly, don’t think much about protecting the environment. The main reason is that everyone is buying electric vehicles and it is becoming a trend.”
Kenzi’s new car has brought her into the growing club of electric vehicle owners in China, the world’s largest economy, its biggest carbon emitter and now the largest market for electric vehicles. A 2023 report by The International Energy Agency suggested that more than half of the world’s electric vehicles are in use on China’s roads.
The production and adoption of electric vehicles in China is one of the biggest success stories in global markets. Between 2021 and 2022, electric vehicle sales in China grew by 1.3 million to 6.8 million – accounting for more than a third of global electric vehicle sales in 2022.
China is the world’s largest carbon emitter, producing 33% of the global total in 2021. Transport accounts for around 10% of China’s emissions.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government has set a goal of peaking emissions by 2030 (and recent reports suggest it could come sooner), and part of its plan is for new electric vehicles to account for 40% of cars on the road by that date. As of June 2022, there were 312 million civilian vehicles, of which battery-electric cars were the most around 3.2%The most popular electric vehicle is a Tesla, but the domestic brand BYD is close to knocking it off the top spot.
China’s electric vehicle industry has exploded thanks to years of government subsidies and tax breaks, and major intervention in the development of technology and infrastructure, as well as in policies designed to encourage buyers, such as free tuition.
The CCP has the authoritarian power to impose significant policies and market interventions to help it reduce emissions and meet its renewable energy targets, and that is exactly what it has done with the electric vehicle industry. In 2001, the CCP included technological research into electric vehicles in its agenda-setting five-year plan, and it has set out to have electric vehicles account for 45% of all new car sales by 2027. Between 2009 and 2022, billions of yuan in subsidies and tax breaks have been pumped into the market, and road infrastructure is comprehensive in Chinese cities.
On the outskirts of Chongqing lies a gleaming, sprawling complex that houses the global research and development centre of Changan, a car manufacturer. It is a clear example of the turn that China’s auto industry has taken. State-owned Changan was founded in 1862 and is now linked with Mazda and Ford in joint ventures.
Today, Changan is China’s eighth-largest EV producer, and its showrooms are packed with models including toy-like urban compacts, luxury-branded sports cars and large hybrid SUVs, powered by CATL batteries and Huawei technology. The company plans to end production of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2025 to focus solely on electric and hybrid cars.
In China, marketing of electric vehicles rarely focuses on environmental benefits. All owners the Guardian spoke to said cost was the number one factor in their decision.
In Shanghai, a 32-year-old financial worker named Rui Rui said he had saved around RMB100,000 (about £10,650) on registration fees alone by buying an electric vehicle.
“Fuel costs are also higher, but electricity is cheaper in China.”
The true level of environmental benefit of electric vehicles is still a matter of debate. Studies have shown that the manufacturing impact is worse than that of conventional cars, but that over time the emission savings offset that initial impact.
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TO study Published in Nature earlier this year, it examined the impact of electric vehicles on air quality in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.
Corresponding declines in the air quality index (which measures pollutants) were also found in regions with higher frequency of private EV travel, “suggesting a positive correlation” in urban areas. However, in Beijing and Shanghai, where power generation is still largely coal-based, the study found an increase in nitrogen dioxide concentrations potentially linked to EV electricity consumption.
The study, by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Beijing Institute of Technology, found “a notable carbon-reducing effect when battery electric vehicles replaced fuel vehicles on equivalent mileage,” and projected “substantial emissions reductions” over the next decade as the ratio shifts to meet China’s targets.
“The 45% target is achievable as long as Xi Jinping decides that the EV industry is worth continuing to support,” said Dr. Tinglon Dai, a business professor at Johns Hopkins University.
“Electric vehicles are a rare area where China seems to be leading the world: high quality and low price, not to mention dizzying variety. This is one of the incredible opportunities for China to dominate a highly respected market. And it is also in line with the West’s broader environmental goals.”
However, Dai said it would be a mistake to think Xi is pushing electric vehicles solely for the climate, or even the economy.
“It’s more of a geopolitical maneuver, a way to get to the top of the food chain of a high-end, high-status industry,” Dai said. “It’s worth it even if they lose money, and it doesn’t look like they’re losing money right now, given the incredible economies of scale.”
The environmental benefits of electric vehicles may not have been a priority in China, but they are an added bonus for both buyers and the government. Kenzi doesn’t drive her Tesla often, only on weekends to walk her pup out of town. But she has noticed a difference. “Electric vehicles can reduce carbon emissions, and many gasoline car brands have started developing electric vehicles as part of state requirements,” she said.
“I really feel that after buying an electric car, and with more and more electric vehicles on the road, car emissions are not so bad anymore. Pollution is much lower.”
Additional reporting by Chi-hui Lin