Dillon Gabriel is on track to break Bo Nix’s record.
Nix became a Heisman finalist a season ago by setting the NCAA record for completion percentage. Nix made 364 of 470 passes in 2023, completing 77.45% of his throws to break Mac Jones’ record of 77.36%.
After Nix left for the NFL, Gabriel transferred to Oregon for his final season of college football and is somehow completing a higher percentage of passes than Nix. In five games so far, Gabriel has completed 77.8% of his passes and has completed 130 of 167 passes for 1,449 yards.
Gabriel always seemed to fit perfectly into Oregon’s offensive scheme once he announced his intention to transfer. He completed 69% of his passes a season ago and threw for a career-high 3,660 yards in 12 games for the Sooners. He even became the betting favorite for the Heisman over the summer.
However, Gabriel has not established himself as a Heisman favorite so far. Players like Ashton Jeanty and Travis Hunter have starred in non-quarterback roles, Cam Ward has led Miami to an undefeated start after transferring from Washington State, and Jalen Milroe has continued his growth as a passer in his first season playing for Kalen DeBoer in Alabama. .
These four players are ahead of Gabriel (+1400) in the BetMGM odds, although Gabriel has a great chance to surpass them all with a decisive game on Saturday night.
The No. 3 Ducks host No. 2 Ohio State in the first top-three matchup of the season. The Buckeye defense enters the game allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for just 130 yards per contest and only Marshall and Michigan State have thrown for a touchdown.
Gabriel is also coming off his worst game of the season. Gabriel threw two picks and completed just 63% of his throws in Oregon’s Friday night win over Michigan State in Week 6 after completing more than 80% of his throws in each of the first three games of the Ducks season.
If Gabriel can get close to or surpass that 80% mark against Ohio State, it’s hard to see how Oregon will lose on Saturday night, or how Gabriel won’t be the favorite for the Heisman midseason.
Here are four more players we’re keeping an eye on heading into Week 7.
Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty: We’re already running out of superlatives for Jeanty’s performances this season. He is the deserved Heisman favorite heading into the Boise State game in Hawaii, as he averages nearly 11 yards per carry and is the only running back to cross the 1,000-yard mark so far this season. Just look at what he did on his first carry against Utah State.
If you want perspective on how much better Jeanty has been than his teammates, he’s 260 yards ahead of Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson, the second-leading rusher. Johnson and North Carolina’s Omari Hampton are the only two other running backs to have more than 700 rushing yards and only 13 players have rushed for more than 600 yards this season. Marshall’s AJ Turner is the only other running back averaging more than 10 yards per carry, but he has rushed 42 times so far this season. Jeanty has 95 carries and may not play the entire game Saturday night against Hawaii if the Broncos take a big lead early.
Colorado DB/WR Travis Hunter: How sustainable is Hunter’s level of production on both sides of the ball? We’re about to find out when Colorado gets into the thick of their agenda. The Buffaloes host No. 18 Kansas State on Saturday night before a trip to Arizona in Week 8. Hunter is the team’s leading receiver with 46 receptions for 561 yards (no other Colorado player has more than 23 receptions) and is tied for the team lead. with two interceptions.
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar: The junior has shown real growth in his first season under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. Allar completes nearly 71% of his passes and averages 10.7 yards per throw. He completed less than 60% of his passes a season ago and only averaged 6.8 yards per attempt. Penn State’s offense hasn’t relied on him to throw the ball much so far; The 24 passes he threw in Week 6 against UCLA were the most he attempted all season. But if he continues to be efficient and Penn State continues to win, expect Allar to get some Heisman votes like Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy did a season ago. The Nittany Lions play at USC on Saturday.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU quarterback: The first-year starter has a great opportunity to jump into the center of the Heisman discussion with a strong performance against Ole Miss on Saturday night. Nussmeier isn’t the dual-threat that Heisman winner Jayden Daniels was a season ago, but he’s been a fantastic passer so far this season in high volume. Nussmeier has attempted 198 passes in five games and has completed nearly 70% of them for 1,652 yards and 15 touchdowns with just four interceptions.