Table of Contents
At least until now, it’s been the Roaring Twenties. We are almost halfway through the decade and for investors it has been amazing.
If anyone had known at the end of 2019 that in the next five years we would see the pandemic, an even deeper recession than 2009, double-digit inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Gaza catastrophe and the prospect of war commercial by the president. Donald Trump: They probably would have looked pretty sad.
However, it has been five years of strong stock markets, with the S&P 500 up 90 percent, US GDP rising a nominal 30 percent, extraordinary technological advances and low unemployment in the developed world.
It’s true that asset prices in the UK and most of Europe have failed to match those in the US, with the FTSE 100 up just 12 per cent, but our property market has been strong, with The average home in England rising from £249,000 in January 2020 to £309,000 in September. So what’s up? And more importantly, what are the prospects for the second half of the decade?
We’re too close to give a definitive explanation, but the general outlines are clear. Governments boosted their economies with deficit spending and central banks had a decade of cheap money and quantitative easing.
So asset prices continued to rise, and while inflation spiraled out of control, all that money helped prop up economic growth (more so in the United States, where technology advanced at full speed, but also, to some extent, in the UK and Europe).
Where to next?: It has been five years of strong stock markets
The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, although terrible in the extreme, appear so far to have been contained. As for global trade, businesses have found ways to work within the restrictions and it hasn’t collapsed like it did in the 1930s, after the original Roaring Twenties.
But the measures taken to shore up the economy come with dangers: the legacy of huge public debt and still high deficits, the threat of a return to inflation, damage to international trade, etc. With asset prices high in almost every respect, it’s hard not to feel worried.
How worried? UBS has boldly looked forward, not just to next year, but also to the next 10 years. Its key long-term themes are debt, deglobalization, demography, decarbonization and digitalization.
Regarding debt, he expects governments to “lean on central banks” to finance their deficits. They will keep interest rates low and force banks and pension funds to hold government bonds.
That is why they will try to inflate the real value of your debt. UBS suggests that investors should hold real assets, such as stocks, property, infrastructure and gold, to protect themselves.
Deglobalization means slower growth and more inflation, which is worrying. But there will be winners: companies involved in offshoring, defense, cybersecurity and automation.
On demographics, the bank points to the contrast between the aging developed world and young Africa and the Indian subcontinent, and how countries manage migration will influence growth.
China’s rapidly declining population means it will play a smaller role in the global economy starting in the next decade. The last two themes of UBS (decarbonization and digitalization) are simple. He points out that the former will reduce growth and increase inflation, while the latter will have the opposite effect.
The message of this is quite clear. A country that seeks to reduce carbon emissions too quickly will impoverish its people. He says: “It remains uncertain whether societies are willing to accept higher energy costs, especially if energy demand increases due to the increased use of artificial intelligence.”
On the contrary, the AI revolution will be a double benefit, increasing growth and reducing costs. Given that the United States seems likely to remain the leader, that must surely be another bullish point for investment.
But there is still a big question. To what extent is good news already priced into the market, particularly in high-tech America? I can’t imagine the second half of the 1920s roaring as loudly as the first. Sorry, but caution should be in the air.
DIY INVESTMENT PLATFORMS
AJ Bell
AJ Bell
Easy investing and ready-to-use portfolios
Hargreaves Lansdown
Hargreaves Lansdown
Free Fund Trading and Investment Ideas
interactive inverter
interactive inverter
Fixed fee investing from £4.99 per month
sax
sax
Get £200 back in trading fees
Trade 212
Trade 212
Free trading and no account commission
Affiliate links: If you purchase a This is Money product you may earn a commission. These offers are chosen by our editorial team as we think they are worth highlighting. This does not affect our editorial independence.
Some links in this article may be affiliate links. If you click on them, we may earn a small commission. That helps us fund This Is Money and keep it free to use. We do not write articles to promote products. We do not allow any commercial relationship to affect our editorial independence.