Home Health Half the country will end up in A&E unless the NHS is reformed, warns England’s top doctor

Half the country will end up in A&E unless the NHS is reformed, warns England’s top doctor

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Professor Sir Stephen Powis (pictured), national medical director of NHS England, said that if the NHS wants

Half of England’s population will end up in A&E every year until 2034 if the NHS does not “take a risk” and move more care from hospitals to the community, the country’s top doctor has warned.

Professor Sir Stephen Powis, national medical director of NHS England, said that if the NHS wants to “avoid an overcrowded A&E situation” within a decade, then it must “go all out” by moving care from hospital to the community.

Emergency services across the country have reported extreme pressure in recent weeks, with many declaring critical incidents alongside distressing reports about the care patients have received.

In a keynote speech on ‘The Current State of the NHS’ at Liverpool Medical Institution yesterday afternoon, Sir Stephen said: ‘Today I want to focus particularly on moving care into the community.

“Because we know that if A&E attendances increase at the same rate as the last 10 years, NHS staff will need to manage six million more A&E attendances every year from 2034.

‘That would mean that the equivalent of almost half of the population goes to the emergency room at least once a year; that is simply not feasible for a 21st century healthcare system.

‘Instead, millions of patients will need to receive the care and support they need outside of hospital.

“The NHS is already on the right track to achieve this, whether through the rollout of high-tech virtual wards or two-hour urgent community response teams.”

Professor Sir Stephen Powis (pictured), national medical director of NHS England, said if the NHS wants to “avoid an overcrowded A&E situation” within a decade then it must “go all out” by moving care from hospital to the community.

Half of England's population will end up in A&E every year by 2034 if the NHS doesn't take a chance and move more care from hospitals to the community.

Half of England’s population will end up in A&E every year by 2034 if the NHS doesn’t take a chance and move more care from hospitals to the community.

A&Es in England faced its busiest year on record in 2024, with 27.42 million attendances across the year, up 7.1 per cent on 2023, according to NHS England.

Rough projections suggest there could be 33,505,330 attendances in 2034.

Sir Stephen also addressed medical students, doctors and recent retirees and urged them to participate in the ten-year health plan.

“If the NHS wants to avoid an overcrowded A&E situation in 10 years’ time, we must take the risk of moving care from the hospital to the community,” he added.

‘The mechanism to do so is still under discussion.

‘So, as doctors of the past, present and future, we need your experience and expertise to help us go further, faster.

“I urge everyone in this room to share their experiences of what works and what doesn’t in the NHS, so we can apply best practice and business as usual across the country as part of the Ten Year Health Plan,” he said. . aggregate.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting has invited NHS patients and staff to take part in a “national conversation” to shape the plan, a central pillar of Labour’s health policy.

The party has pledged to build “an NHS fit for the future”, with greater emphasis on preventing disease, moving care from hospitals to the community and harnessing the latest technology to improve care.

Sir Stephen’s comments come after a report last week found patients are dying in corridors, sometimes going undiscovered for hours, while the sick are left to fend for themselves.

A&Es in England faced its busiest year on record in 2024, with 27.42 million attendances across the year, up 7.1% on 2023, according to NHS England.

A&Es in England faced its busiest year on record in 2024, with 27.42 million attendances across the year, up 7.1% on 2023, according to NHS England.

The report from the Royal College of Nursing (RCN), which has been described as “heartbreaking”, spoke of patients sitting for days in chairs – so-called “chair care” -, of people abandoned in corridors, of delays in treatment and older people who couldn’t get it. help due to lack of call bells and lack of staff.

The RCN found that patients are regularly treated in bathrooms, shower areas, cloakrooms, bereavement rooms and even observation rooms where families visit their deceased relatives.

He has also called for immediate action from the Government to put an end to “runner care”, which he claims has become normalized and does not just occur in the winter months.

Senior doctors at the Royal College of Physicians (RCP) have echoed their concerns, saying there should be a “zero tolerance” approach to care in NHS corridors.

In December, more than 54,000 patients in England waited more than 12 hours to be admitted to a bed, while research shows that patients who spend more than 12 hours in A&E are twice as likely to die within 30 days as those treated in two hours.

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