Like corporations, clubs love to talk about vision, philosophy, values, and identity. About us? Where we want to be? It’s the kind of thing that keeps motivational speakers steadily employed and MBA programs in business.
You assume that the current incarnation of Chelsea is no different. There is a ‘blueprint’, no, better still, a ‘roadmap’ to success, and it involved signing manager Graham Potter as well as a bevy of new scouts and recruiting guys and making heavy investments in January. (Of course, they invested heavily in the summer transfer window before then, but that probably wasn’t part of the big vision, as the only decision makers were club chairman Todd Boehly, co-owner Behdad Eghbali and manager Thomas Tuchel, with the latter promptly fired by the other two.)
The problem with the roadmap, and not just Chelsea’s, but any football club’s, is that it can clash with the reality of the results.
– Broadcast on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga and more (USA)
– O’Hanlon: Ranking Premier League title, top-four, relegation races (E+)
Depending on the club and the wisdom and patience of both the fans and those in charge, there is always some freedom regarding the results. You’ll sacrifice results for growth and development, whether that means building chemistry, developing young players or helping newcomers establish themselves. But there’s so much sacrifice you can make, partly because at some point the players get restless, the fans get angry, and the revenue you get from home gates and prize money goes down.
Chelsea have won their last two games, on Saturday at home against Leeds United in the Premier League and on Tuesday in the Champions League against Borussia Dortmund, securing a place in the final eight. That’s good in terms of placating fans and making some extra money.
Is the way they achieved it part of the “project”? Probably not. does it matter? Probably yes.
Potter was signed – at great cost – let’s not forget the $25m (£22m) paid to Brighton in compensation is second only to the fee Bayern paid RB Leipzig for the services of Julian Nagelsmann, on the back of his record with Brighton, where he played attractive, modern football and achieved excellent results relative to the team’s resources, avoiding relegation on a shoestring budget in his first two seasons and then leading them into the top 10 last year.
– Potter: “I’m still here” despite pressure from Chelsea
Potter is a thoughtful and intelligent fellow. Perhaps not like the traditional English football players of yore, the type who is wary of articulate ex-players like Potter with university degrees, let alone master’s degrees in “Leadership, Personal and Professional Development”, which may explain why I had to go to the Swedish fourth tier to get his first coaching job 12 years ago. But it could certainly speak well to private equity types like Boehly and Eghbali, who will have been looking for an edge, and Potter’s continued rise through the managerial food chain suggested that he was not only in a “growth mindset” but he was actually growing in stature.
Here’s the thing: when we’ve watched Potter’s football at Chelsea – that is, the guy who impressed at Brighton – the results have ranged from mediocre to poor, especially when they had possession. In the last two wins, we’ve seen little of that, although there’s nothing wrong with that, and yet his results have been good.
It’s not like the Leeds and Dortmund games played out in exactly the same way, but there are some unsettling parallels.
Chelsea started brilliantly against both, creating many chances but failing to convert. Against Leeds, this lasted for about half an hour. Then they slowed down, took the lead early in the second half with Wesley Fofanain the 53rd minute, and then made defensive substitutions to preserve the lead. After Chelsea took the lead, they only managed two shots on goal for an xG of 0.07; Leeds had eight, for an xG of 0.76.
As for Dortmund? Chelsea took the lead on aggregate with Kai Havertz‘s penalty in the 53rd minute, exactly like against Leeds, and after that, they made defensive substitutions to protect him. In the last 37 minutes, Chelsea managed only one shot on goal (Havertz from near the touchline) for an xG of 0.01. Dortmund managed 11 shots on target, with an xG of 0.86.
The difference was that on Saturday, against a relegation-threatened opponent under a new manager, they had the ball for a long time (58%), while against league leaders Dortmund in the Bundesliga, they had much less: just 39%. . To some extent, that’s understandable: Leeds were happy to concede possession away against a better team, while Dortmund, riding high thanks to nine consecutive Bundesliga wins, demanded the ball.
Either way, 39% possession at home in a must-win game isn’t very Potter-esque. Not when you consider that in his three full seasons at Brighton, his team averaged 52% possession. When a team on a budget has so much control in the Premier League, you can be sure of one thing: it’s by design.
Even without the numbers, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that Potter’s Chelsea don’t play like his Brighton team did, just with better players, as the owners hoped they would. There are many reasons for this: new manager, much less time on the training ground due to Chelsea’s European commitments, no pre-season, a new gang of newcomers showing up in January, but put that aside for now.
If you’re a Potter and you want to keep your job, what do you do? Do you try to play like you did with Brighton, who signed you? Or do you prioritize results by doing the textbook things more traditional managers do, like closing shop after taking the lead and implementing a game plan that basically consists of Enzo Fernandez trying to pass the balls and hoping Joao Felix creates something out of nothing?
I don’t really know the answer, and it’s obviously not a binary option; there are shades of gray, and the results also lend authority and credibility, both of which Potter needs as well. But what’s pretty obvious is that Chelsea’s mini-change has little to do with what got him the job in the first place or the football he’ll try to play next season… assuming he doesn’t get sacked first.
