Big donors are flooding the fight for control of the House and, in the final stretch, the Democrats have surpassed the Republicans.
It’s a striking shift: Republican super PACs have been dominant in recent cycles and crucial in helping candidates who have struggled to raise as much as their Democratic opponents. But now that advantage has disappeared in the House.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest Republican group dedicated to winning the House, announced Tuesday that raised $81.4 million from July to September, its highest quarterly total. It’s a particularly impressive number considering Republicans lost their best fundraiser about a year ago, when Kevin McCarthy was dethroned as president.
But the CLF was nowhere near beating its Democratic counterpart. The House Majority PAC Said It raised approximately $99 million in the third quarter, with 69 million dollars in September alone.
Both super PACs have raised about $210 million this cycle, a warning sign for Republicans who have relied on their biggest donors to stay competitive in every battleground.
“HMP couldn’t be prouder to have outperformed our Republican counterparts in the third quarter, erasing the Republican Super PAC’s lead as the candidates’ fundraising gap continues to grow for Democrats,” said Mike Smith, president of the group. “In the four weeks leading up to Election Day, we believe our unprecedented fundraising and strategic advantage in reserving crucial time on television and digital at optimal rates will allow us to take back the House in November.”
Republicans have long believed they don’t need to match Democrats dollar for dollar on television. After replacing McCarthy, president Michael Johnson has worked to develop a relationship with donors and kept Dan Conston, the agent McCarthy chose to lead the CLF, in place.
“We continue to raise the necessary resources and deploy them strategically to make a real impact in the crucial races that will shape the Majority,” Conston said in a statement.
Still, there is a lot that outside groups can do. Candidates can buy television airtime for much less than super PACs, making it much less efficient for outside groups to buy ads than campaigns. Republicans generally rely more on outside groups because their candidates often don’t have enough funds to pay for their own ads.
Since 2018, Democratic candidates have largely raised far more than their opponents. So far this year more than 10 Democratic challengers I have already announced it raising more than $2 million in the last quarter.
For example, Janelle Bynum, the Democrat challenging the representative. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.) reported raising $3.4 million in the third quarter. Laura Gillen, the Democrat challenging the representative. Antonio D’Esposito (RN.Y.) raised $2.4 million and Derek Tran, the Democrat challenging Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) raised more than $2 million.
With Republican House candidates consistently trailing Democrats, the CLF has played a key role in filling the void.
In the 2020 cycle, both CLF and HMP were relatively close in fundraising. CLF raised $165 million compared to HMP’s $160 million. But Republicans surged in 2022 and the CLF maintained a steady cash advantage, raising $260 million over the cycle, compared to $182 million for the Democratic group.
And that money has important implications for the campaign down the stretch. In 2022, CLF’s cash advantage meant it was able to spend $141 million on independent expenditures in House elections from Oct. 1 through Election Day, compared to $121 million for HMP, according to FEC data. CLF outspent HMP in 32 of 47 races in which they both spent.
But that dynamic could reverse this year. Cash-strapped HMP periodically launches new rounds of reserves. It has currently set aside $52 million more than CLF in future TV and radio ad bookings between now and Election Day, according to data from AdImpact, which tracks political spending. Both sides, of course, can still buy additional ads, changing that division before November.
