Republicans believe there could be up to 13 House seats in traditionally blue districts they can flip to take control in November, including a popular progressive, the head of the Dems’ largest fundraising arm and a district in Rhode Island. , Joe Biden, won by 13 points.
Democrats currently hold a slim 220-212 majority in the House, with three seats vacant, meaning flipping 13 seats would guarantee a Republican majority by 2023.
The GOP is confident they can create a red wave in November due to high crime rates in blue states and Republican insiders’ belief that abortion will not motivate enough voters to keep the House blue, according to axios.
With President Joe Biden spending significant time searching for candidates in Oregon and California several weeks before the election, Democrats are forced to defend where they’re used to feeling safe.
Republicans are now spending $25 million on ad purchases in those states, as well as districts in New York, Rhode Island and Connecticut trying to beat Democrats.
Republicans believe there may be as many as 13 House seats in traditionally blue districts that they can flip to gain control of the lower house in November’s midterm elections
President Joe Biden spent significant time searching for candidates in Oregon and California just weeks before the election, Democrats are forced to defend where they used to feel safe
Perhaps the most prominent seat the Republicans are trying to win is in California’s 47th district, held by progressive firefighter Katie Porter.
It is one of eight counties where the GOP has cut more than $23 million in ad spend to try to elect Porter’s opponent Scott Baugh, a former California state councilor.
The GOP focuses on three other districts in California: The 13th, where John Duarte tries to beat Adam Gray in a newly drawn district; the 49th, a district that Biden won by just four points, where second-term rep Mike Levin tries to hold onto Brian Maryott; and the 26th, where Julia Brownley hopes to hold off Matt Jacobs in a district she won by 20 points in 2020.
Republicans hope to make even bigger gains in Oregon, where a three-way race has given them hopes of taking the governor’s mansion for the first time since 1987.
The party is spending big on two seats in the House: the 4th district, where the retirement of Peter DiFazio sees Val Hoyle fight off 2020 loser Alek Skarlatos in a district that Biden won by four points; and the 6th district, which Biden won by 13 points but sees a close race after reclassification as Andrea Salinas tries to beat challenger Mike Erickson.
In New York, spending is being focused on two districts, most notably the 17th, where DCCC chairman Sean Maloney won a controversial primary against an AOC-backed challenger and now faces Michael Lawler in a rescheduled seat. Outside groups have reportedly spent more than $2 million to dethrone Maloney, the first gay person elected to Congress in New York history.
Perhaps the most prominent seat the Republicans are trying to win is in California’s 47th district, held by progressive firefighter Katie Porter (pictured left). It’s one of eight counties where the GOP has cut more than $23 million in ad spend to try to elect Porter’s opponent, Scott Baugh (pictured right), a former California state councilman.
The GOP targets three other districts in California, including the 13th, where John Duarte (pictured right) tries to beat Adam Gray (pictured left) in a newly drawn district
In the 49th, a district that Biden won by just four points, Mike Levin (pictured left) tries to hold on to Brian Maryott (pictured right)
Rep. Julia Brownley (pictured left) hopes to hold off Matt Jacobs (pictured right) in the 26th district, which she won by 20 points in 2020
In Oregon’s 4th district, where Peter DiFazio’s is retiring, Val Hoyle (pictured left) tries to hold off 2020 loser Alek Skarlatos (pictured right) in a district that Biden won by just four points
They are also trying to elect Anthony D’Esposito to flip a chair previously held by Kathleen Rice, who is trying to hold onto her endorsed successor Laura Gillen.
Other blue districts that the GOP is pumping money into are Connecticut’s 5th, where Jahana Hayes is trying to win a third term against George Logan; Georgia’s 2nd, where Sanford Bishop Jr., the longest-serving Peach State Congressman who has held his seat since 1993, will face Chris West.
There’s also New Mexico’s 3rd, where Teresa Leger Fernandez tries to stop Alexis Martinez Johnson from flipping a chair where Fernandez defeated Martinez by 17 points in 2020; and Arizona’s 4th, where Greg Stanton tries to save his seat for a third term against Kelly Cooper.
The canary in the coal mine for the GOP may be in the 2nd district of Rhode Island. Biden won the district in 2020 by 14 points, but polls shows Alan Fung leading Seth Magaziner for the clearing vacated by Democrat James Langevin.
GOP ads have constantly haunted Democrats on crime, bail reform, alleged police defunding and immigration.
The 6th district, which Biden won by 13 points, sees a close race after reclassification as Andrea Salinas (pictured left) tries to beat Mike Erickson (pictured right)
In New York, spending is focused on two districts, especially the 17th, where DCCC chairman Rep. Sean Maloney (pictured left) won a controversial primary against an AOC-backed challenger and now faces Michael Lawler in a rearranged seat (pictured right)
Republicans are also trying to elect Anthony D’Esposito (pictured right) to flip a seat previously held by Kathleen Rice, who tried to hold onto her endorsed successor Laura Gillen (pictured left).
Other blue districts that the GOP is pumping money into are Connecticut’s 5th, where Rep. Jahana Hayes (pictured left) trying to win a third term against George Logan (pictured right)
Another factor in many of these states is that they don’t have competitive senate races, but do have gubernatorial races with Republican momentum, such as in Oregon and New York, where Kathy tries to hold onto Hochul to beat Representative Lee Zeldin.
A Republican strategist says the party’s candidates actually do better in blue states than in swing states, where Democrats focus more on their engagement.
A litany of projections suggests Republicans are poised to gain ground in November — though that lead has dwindled in recent weeks due to the Supreme Court’s lingering fallout over Roe v. Wade and Biden’s fiery new approach to attacking parts of the GOP. as ‘extremists’.
While the Senate is more of a toss-up, the GOP is still expected to retake the House of Representatives with a plethora of candidates taking advantage of newly redrawn congressional cards.
Democrats currently control both the House and Senate by narrow margins, with only Vice President Kamala Harris’ casting vote giving them an advantage in a completely divided upper chamber.
Another major attempt at flipping is Georgia’s 2nd, where Rep. Sanford Bishop Jr. (pictured left), longest-serving Peach State congressman to hold his seat since 1993, takes on Chris West (pictured right)
In New Mexico’s 3rd, Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (pictured left) prevents Alexis Martinez Johnson (pictured right) from turning a chair where Fernandez defeated Martinez by 17 points in 2020
In Arizona’s 4th Greg Stanton tries to save his seat for a third term against Kelly Cooper
The canary in the coal mine for the GOP may be in the 2nd district of Rhode Island. Biden won the district by 14 points in 2020, but polls show Alan Fung (pictured right) is Seth Magaziner’s leader (pictured left) for the clearing being vacated by Democrat James Langevin
In an effort to power their base, House Republican leaders unveiled a revamped national platform called their “Commitment to America.”
It is modeled after Newt Gingrich’s 1994 “Contract With America,” which was rolled out just before Republicans captured Congress in Bill Clinton’s first presidential midterm election.
But the Democrats, for their part, have tried to tie their Republican opponents to anti-abortion extremism. In more moderate districts, they are trying to link their rivals to Donald Trump in an effort to discredit them to independent voters.