Japanese yen and US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration photo taken on September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File photo
NEW YORK/LONDON –Global debt hit one file $307 trillion in the second quarter of the year, despite rising interest rates that curbed bank lending, with markets such as the United States and Japan driving the rise, the Institute of International Finance said (IIF) said Tuesday.
The financial services trade group said this in a report global debt in dollar terms was up $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion in the past decade.
The last increase has the global debtGDP ratio for the second quarter in a row to 336 percent. A slowdown in growth, together with a slowdown in price increases, has meant that nominal GDP has grown less slowly than growth debt levels and stood behind the debt ratio to rise, the report said.
“The debtThe ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to gross domestic product (GDP) has essentially resumed its upward trajectory,” said Emre Tiftik, director of sustainability research at the IIF at a press conference.
“This increase comes after seven consecutive quarters of decline debt proportions and it mainly reflects the impact of declining inflationary pressures.”
The IIF They said that with wage and price pressures easing, even if they are not in line with their targets, they expect wage pressures to ease debt production ratio will exceed 337 percent by the end of the year.
Experts and policymakers have warned of rising levels of diabetes in recent months debtThis could force countries, businesses and households to tighten their belts and rein in spending and investment, slowing growth and affecting living standards.
More than 80 percent of the latest increase came from the developed world, with the US, Japan, Britain and France recording the largest increases. Among emerging markets, the biggest increases came from the largest economies, namely China, India and Brazil.
“For the first time in a long time, emerging markets are trending better than developed markets,” said Todd Martinez, co-chair of the U.S. sovereign team at Fitch Ratings, which sponsored the exchange. IIF report.
“Developed markets take longer to return to their pre-crisis fiscal positions after the pandemic than emerging markets, and then many of them were hit by this energy shock (from the war in Ukraine).”
The report found that household debtThe ratio of GDP to gross domestic product (GDP) in emerging markets was still above pre-COVID-19 levels, largely thanks to China, Korea and Thailand. However, in mature markets the same ratio fell to a 20-year low in the first six months of the year.
“The good news is that the consumer debt The burden appears to have remained largely manageable,” says Tiftik. “If inflationary pressures persist, the health of household balance sheets, especially in the US, will provide a cushion against further Fed rate hikes.”
Markets are not pricing in a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in the near future, but according to CME’s FedWatch tool, the target rate between 5.25 and 5.5 percent is currently expected to remain in place until at least next May year.
US interest rates are expected to remain high for a long time, which could put pressure on emerging markets as needed investment is channeled to the less risky developed world.
The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday, but could signal that it is open to further rate hikes.
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