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Gatherings for central bankers and military chiefs

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Hello and welcome to the work week.

Now seems like a good time for central bankers to come together and brainstorm ways to get their economies out of a global inflation crisis. So thank goodness for the European Central Bank’s annual Forum on Central Banking, a gathering amid the palaces in the beautiful city of Sintra on the Portuguese Riviera to discuss the challenges of monetary policy in a rapidly changing world: a title whose organizers admit it was only recently approved given the, er, fast-moving world the eurozone economies now face. Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell, World Trade Organization chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey are among the top speakers.

Geopolitical peaks are a bit of a theme again this week. NATO is set to meet in Madrid on Tuesday for three days of discussion, including expansion after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Topics for consultation include maintaining support for Ukraine, strengthening partnerships and maintaining an open door, and strengthening transatlantic unity.

This also happens to be the week before Ukraine’s Constitution Day, a holiday for the country that marks the 1996 establishment of an independent state.

Speaking of secession, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon is expected to detail on Tuesday how she plans to hold a second independence referendum. Read Robert Shrimsley’s excellent op-ed to understand the reasons why Sturgeon chooses to do this now. The future of Britain is the subject of a conference taking place in London, jointly organized by the Tony Blair Institute and the Britain Project, a cross between a campaign group and a think tank.

Of course, reorganizing countries is a controversial affair, as will no doubt be discussed on Friday, the 25th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong from the UK to China. The story of Claudia Mo, the journalist turned political activist, and forcefully told in this weekend’s FT Magazine, is a reminder of the battles fought over the past quarter-century and ultimately lost by those who claimed the autonomy of the metropolitan region. wanted to keep – although that won’t stop the protesters. to hit the streets on Friday.

This week will also see the next installment of the UK’s summer of discontent with lawyers walking out on Monday amid ongoing protests over cuts to legal funding – although the Justice Department is questioning this, saying criminal legal aid will cost £135m is increased per year. Postmen can follow the lawyers to follow picket lines as the Communication Workers Union sends union ballots to more than 115,000 of its members this week.

In need of some light-hearted entertainment? Well, it’s a good week for major sports tournaments with the start of both Wimbledon fortnight and the Tour de France, which kicks off this year in Copenhagen. The FT has also published its list of summer reading recommendations.

Thanks again for your messages about this newsletter. If you don’t have any comments yet, or want to say more about what should and shouldn’t be included, drop me an email at jonathan.moules@ft.com.

Economic data

Reports on consumer confidence, inflation and gross domestic product updates this week will give some indication of the effectiveness of various monetary tightening measures, and will no doubt give central bankers in Sintra food for thought.

The central bankers of Sweden and Hungary are making interest rate decisions this week.

businesses

A quieter week for dated company announcements. The major earnings announcements are all from the US. Investors in Nike, the global sports brand, may be more interested in the senior leadership team than the numbers. Nike’s head of diversity Felicia Mayo will leave the company late next month, after just two years in the role.

Key economic and business reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect this week in terms of business reports and economic data.

Monday

  • The annual European Central Bank Central Bank Forum starts in Sintra, Portugal

  • US Durable Goods Order Data May

  • Results: Nike Q4

Tuesday

  • France, consumer confidence figures

  • Germany, consumer confidence figures

  • Hungary, interest rate decision

  • UK, Office for National Statistics publishes the first results of the 2021 England and Wales Census

  • US, monthly consumer confidence and house price indices

Wednesday

  • Germany, preliminary figures of the consumer price index (CPI)

  • Japan retail data, May

  • Spain, flash inflation and retail sales

  • Sweden, Riksbank’s monetary policy meeting

  • UK, British Retail Consortium Retail Price Index

  • UK, EU chief Brexit negotiator Maroš Šefčovič to speak at Bloomberg headquarters in London on EU-UK partnership

  • US, GDP figures first quarter

  • Results: General Mills Q4

Thursday

  • Canada, April GDP data

  • EU, May unemployment figures

  • France, May Producer Price Index (PPI) Data and June CPI Data

  • Germany, June unemployment data, May import prices plus May retail data. Also the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde at the first meeting of the Simone Veil Pact, organized by Renew Europe.

  • Italy May Unemployment Data Plus May PPI Data

  • Japan Industrial Production Data, May

  • UK, final Q1 GDP figures and consumer trends report plus Nationwide’s June house price data

  • Results: Walgreens Boots Alliance Q3

Friday

  • China, France, Italy, UK, US: Data from Caixin and S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • The ECB ends its long-term bond-buying scheme, part of the stimulus measures introduced a decade ago to combat stubbornly high inflation

  • EU, flash inflation data June

  • Italy May CPI Data

  • Japan, monthly unemployment rate

  • UK consumer credit figures

  • US Construction Spending Statistics

World Events

Finally, here’s a rundown of this week’s other events and milestones.

Monday

  • The UN Ocean Conferenceco-organized by the governments of Kenya and Portugal, starts in Lisbon

  • UK, Wimbledon tennis tournament kicks off at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club in south west London amid controversy over ban on Russian players

  • In the UK, lawyers who are members of the Criminal Bar Association are going on strike amid an escalating dispute with the government over court funding. The strike by criminal defense lawyers is likely to lead to widespread disruption of court hearings in England and Wales.

Tuesday

  • France, the new National Assembly holds its first session after the results of the June 12 parliamentary elections created a hung parliament – read Martin Sandbu’s (premium) free lunch newsletter for a more complete explanation. Also, Australia’s new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit Paris to ‘reset’ relations with France after tensions erupted over a decommissioned submarine deal.

  • Spain, NATO’s Madrid summit will begin with government leaders from the 30 member states expected to participate and discussions on Sweden’s and Finland’s applications to join the military alliance. In 2022 it will be 40 years since Spain joined NATO.

  • Ukraine, Constitution Day on the occasion of the anniversary of the signing of the Constitution of Ukraine in 1996

  • British, London Mayor Sadiq Khan hosts the Debate on the State of London at the O2 in Greenwich plus the Henley Royal Regatta starts on the River Thames

  • US-British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell to be sentenced after found guilty in sexual abuse trial

Wednesday

  • Belgium, the Ommegang festival, including a procession reenacting the historic entrance of Charles V, starts in Brussels

  • UK, Committee on Climate Change publishes its 2022 progress report to Parliament, assessing the UK’s chances of reaching net zero by 2050. In addition, a new strike threat looms with a Royal Mail trade union vote over plans to remove 542 frontline delivery managers amid broader restructuring.

Thursday

  • Philippines, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, son and namesake of the infamous late dictator, takes office as the country’s new president

  • UK, the Future of Britain conference hosted by the Tony Blair Institute to discuss forward-thinking solutions to the country’s problems begins in London

Friday

  • Brazil to take over the presidency of the UN Security Council in July

  • Canada Day, a federal holiday commemorating the formation of the union of the British provinces in North America that created Canada in 1868

  • Denmark, the Tour de France starts in Copenhagen. It ends on July 24 on the Champs-Élysées in Paris.

  • EU, Czech Republic take on EU presidency for six months

  • Hong Kong, 25th Anniversary of the Return of the Former Colony from British to Chinese Rule

  • India, annual Rath Yatra or Chariot, Hindu festival

  • Rwanda, National Day Commemorating Belgium’s Independence

  • Somalia, national holiday commemorating the founding of the country from British Somaliland and Italian Somaliland

  • UK, deadline for WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange to appeal decision to extradite him to US to face charges of espionage

Saturday

  • Italy, the Palio di Siena, Italy’s most famous (and controversial) horse race, takes place down the street from Siena’s Piazza del Campo

  • UK, 50th Anniversary of the Pride in London Parade

  • USA, World UFO Day takes place on the anniversary of the Roswell incident in New Mexico in 1947

Sunday

  • Belarus Independence Day

  • UK, the 134th annual Wenlock Olympics – believed to have inspired the modern games – begin in Wenlock, Shropshire

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