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Wild Card weekend is right around the corner, and while there were a lot of bad teams this season, the good ones are now the only ones left playing.
This week’s Four Verts column looks at four stories that caught our attention heading into the weekend.
The Ravens, once again, are true Super Bowl contenders
Baltimore is back to where it used to be: near the top of the AFC. The Ravens had a shaky season at first, but finished with a 12-5 record and won the AFC North in the final week of the season. Lamar Jackson had an MVP-caliber campaign and Derrick Henry had a dominant season in his first year with the team. At the end of the day, this team had too much talent overall to have a truly bad year from start to finish and they were able to position themselves for another shot at making the Super Bowl, thanks in large part to a resurgent defense.
The Ravens were forced to make a change at defensive coordinator this season with the departure of Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks, replacing former Ravens player and linebackers coach Zach Orr in the position. Much like MacDonald’s start with the Ravens, Orr had a rough start in the first few weeks of the season. The Ravens defense was a big-play machine, and even teams like the Browns and Raiders were able to sustain drives against them early in the season.
Over time, those problems began to be solved thanks to Orr’s problem-solving ability and the natural talent the Ravens had accumulated on defense over the past few years. Kyle Hamilton made a move to deep safety, Ar’Darius Washington had a big year, rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins was on the verge of dominance in the second half of the season, and they were able to put a lot more pressure on the quarterback. Since Week 11, the Ravens have arguably had the best defense in football and have become one of the most complete teams in the league.
Of course, their postseason hopes live and die on the arms and legs of Lamar Jackson, who has yet to make a deep postseason run and will be without one of his best weapons in Zay Flowers vs. the Steelers on Saturday. Of course, Jackson has the skill level to overcome that. Any quarterback who can throw for 4,000 yards, 41 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding another 900 yards on the ground is capable of conquering the entire world, much less winning a Super Bowl. Henry may be the tie here that finally allows Jackson to lift the Lombardi, but the fact that Jackson he hasn’t done it had a Super Bowl run doesn’t mean he’s not capable of doing it. (The same goes for Josh Allen and Buffalo, who the Ravens could play later.)
Baltimore has become a well-oiled machine that is capable of going all the way to reach the Super Bowl, thanks to its defense reaching championship form. For the sake of future discourse, let’s hope they can make it to the second round of the playoffs.
Can the Packers defeat the Eagles?
One of the advantages of a season that featured a glut of teams at the bottom of the standings is the handful of really good teams that made the playoffs late in the season.
That’s definitely true in a playoff game that includes a rematch of the season opener in Brazil with the Packers going on the road to face the Eagles. In the new seven-team playoff format, it’s been unusual for a team of any quality to actually be in seventh place, but the Packers are here because they played in the incredibly loaded NFC North this season, and they have a chance to replicate what they did last year in terms of winning on the road as a No. 7 seed.
Green Bay comes into this game with different expectations than they did a year ago. The Packers were just a bunch of upstarts last season, clawing their way into the playoffs on a hot streak without playing great football all season. This year was different, where an incredible 11-6 record means third place in the NFC North and seventh place in the NFC playoffs. Still, the Packers were one of the best teams in the league this season.
Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs formed the perfect tandem for head coach Matt LaFleur to play the style of football he wanted. Jacobs arrived from the Raiders and made an immediate impact on the Packers’ running game, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 rushing touchdowns. LaFleur’s offense has always been built around the ability to run the ball, so the addition of Jacobs in free agency this year fundamentally changed the Packers and what they were able to accomplish.
With those two, and a growing group of receivers around them, the Packers were able to rank eighth in expected points added per offensive play (0.08), 12th in offensive success rate (43.3%), sixth in points per series (2.50). ) and third in explosive play rate (13.2%). This offense’s ceiling is sky-high and they still have room to improve heading into the playoffs, as demonstrated by their recent loss against the Vikings.
Those guys will need to play well as the Eagles have arguably the best defense in the league all season and rank in the top three or five in most defensive stats. The Packers defense faces a difficult task corralling Saquon Barkley and AJ Brown, so the offense will really have to step up its game and go toe-to-toe with the Eagles to advance to the next round, but they certainly have the facilities to do it.
Vikings-Rams could be the best game of the weekend
The most important thing surrounding this game will be the recovery of the greater Los Angeles area as five wildfires ravage the city and force thousands of people to flee their homes in search of safety. That wildfire may cause the NFL to do something about the upcoming Rams vs Vikings game, but at this point, nothing has been decided yet. Whenever and wherever that game is played, there will be a good opportunity for people to get a little distracted and tune in to what could be the most interesting matchup of the weekend.
Once again, the Rams look like the wild card team no one wants to play with a game against the Vikings, and former Rams assistant Kevin O’Connell lurking. This is one of the most interesting matchups of the weekend, particularly when it comes to the Rams’ offensive attack with the Vikings’ speedy, happy defense.
Matthew Stafford and the Rams have had an up-and-down year on offense, but everyone knows that when you have Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field at the same time, you can play anyone. The Vikings comfortably have a top-five defense no matter how you look at it. They rank third in expected points added per play (-0.08), fifth in success rate (39.4%), and fourth in third-down conversion rate (35.6%). Stafford and McVay have the aptitude and experience to come up with a game plan that can survive the Vikings’ aggressive defense. This matchup will be all about big plays, and it’s probably the only way the Rams can win this game.
The Rams defense is at a huge disadvantage in this game as they have been trying to rebuild that side of the ball, ranking in the bottom third of most defensive stats. It seems unlikely that they can keep Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in check with the personnel they have, so they will need to score quickly to stay in the game.
Minnesota’s offense is a machine that the Rams probably don’t have answers for, but if they can score relative to how good their talent is, they should at least be able to hang around.
Houston’s opening as pet dogs is seasonally appropriate
The Houston Texans are back in the playoffs after finishing atop the dismal AFC South and will host a home game against the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend. The Texans didn’t have the cleanest year under head coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback CJ Stroud, but they are here and ready to fight for their playoff lives, in the rare spot of being the home underdogs in the first round . And frankly, they deserve to be the underdog against the Chargers based on their performance this season.
It’s hard to have a season where you win the division and at the same time feel like an underachiever. The first year of Stroud’s career coincided with the Texans having one of the best offenses in football. Stroud was a fast superstar in Houston and led them to a playoff berth just a year after being one of the worst teams in the league. Offensively, they fell off a cliff this year when the offensive line struggled, injuries piled up at wide receiver, the running game was poor and Stroud was unable to bear the brunt of all the failures around him.
According to TruMedia, the Texans were one of the worst offenses in the NFL this year. They ranked 24th in points per drive (1.82), 25th in expected points added per play (-0.07), 31st in success rate (36.7%), and last in rushing success rate. (31.5%). Just by looking at them it was clear that this was not the same well-oiled machine it was a year ago. They’ll need some retooling in the offseason, and unfortunately for them, they’ll run into one of the best defenses in the league to make their way to the playoffs. While the Texans’ offense was bad, saying they were a bad team overall isn’t necessarily accurate.
The second year of the Ryans’ reign over the Texans defense was a huge success, with Houston boasting one of the best defenses in the league, and is the main reason they made the playoffs outside of their team. division. They are in the top five of almost all advanced and standard statistics and generally rank first in defensive success rate (38.7%). They should be able to perform well against the Chargers’ inconsistent offense, but they may not be able to carry the full load necessary to reach the divisional round of the playoffs.
According to BetMGM, the Texans are 2.5 points behind the Chargers, are not big favorites, and have a real chance to win this game. However, the fact that they are underdogs at home is reflected in their shaky performance this year, including a 31-2 loss at the hands of the Ravens on Christmas. They’ll have a chance to be productive on offense as long as Stroud is under center, but the current version of the Texans is scheduled to struggle when wild card weekend begins on Saturday.