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The final stretch of the season is here. The AFC playoff race is all but set, the NFC is struggling, and there are a host of teams waiting to be officially eliminated from the playoffs.
This week’s Four Verts begins with a split that is the very definition of fighting.
NFC North lives up to expectations
Coming into the season, all four NFC North teams had reason for hope. Three of them still do it, with the Lions, Packers and Vikings among the NFL’s elite this season. Those three teams are likely to make the playoffs, barring a catastrophe in recent weeks. The Lions command this division as one of the best teams in the NFL, but the Packers’ chances as division winners may increase with a big game Thursday night in Detroit. The Bears, well, are still having a Bears-like season, but the rest of the division is primed to make some noise in the playoffs.
The Lions have been an incredibly dominant team this season, especially on offense. According to TruMedia, the Lions offense ranks first in success rate (48.6%), points per drive (2.84), first downs and touchdowns per play (6.44), success rate on putbacks ( 53.1%) and land attempts (46.9%). . They are also in the top five in most expected points statistics and have converted 45.7% of their third downs. They have combined competent quarterback play, arguably the best running back duo in the league, and a rock star offensive line to break down opposing defenses. Ben Johnson has a huge pool of talent to draw from, which makes his job as a play-caller much easier.
Their defense, which has been good this year, faces a tough test against the Packers, who have an offense that has been among the best in the league over the final month of the season. Since Week 9, the Packers rank first in yards per play (6.6), fourth in points per drive (2.76) and third in dropback success rate (51.8%). This offense is playing like a machine and the defense, while inconsistent from bottom to bottom, is turning over enough turnovers to the point where it is consistently giving the ball back to an offense that is on fire. At 9-3, they are still very much alive for the division title and a high playoff berth if they can play their cards right and have a little luck.
Minnesota is among them with a 10-2 record as one of the league’s upstart teams that could be exceeding expectations. The Vikings defense has been one of the best in the NFL this year and Sam Darnold has been steady enough to lead the offense to a potential playoff berth. They still have to play the Packers and Lions (and Bears) one more time before the end of the season, but Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores deserve a lot of credit for raising expectations in Minnesota, even when their staff might not be up to it. available. as well known as the one the Lions and Packers have. It’s hard to say if this is a true Super Bowl contender, but their defense will certainly give them a chance in January.
Then there are the Bears. At this point, they’re just trying to make it to 2025, which is a fair mindset after their Thanksgiving masterclass.
Matt Eberflus might have left at the worst possible time for a coach
Man. It’s been about a week since the Bears’ unprofessional mistake in losing to the Lions on Thanksgiving Day and it’s still unbelievable. The Bears had no choice but to fire embattled third-year head coach Matt Eberflus after this loss, but it’s still hard not to be surprised by how rocky the end of his coaching tenure was, and it was partly the fault of the Bears for the end of all this.
The timeout error has been talked about ad nauseum, but it’s actually just one of the craziest unforced errors seen at any level of football. The Bears, down 23-20, had a timeout on the edge of field goal range with about 30 seconds left on the running clock. The optimal way to play would have been to run another play, gain some yards, call a timeout, and then try to kick the field goal. However, the Bears players never prepared in a timely manner, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams was taking too long to move things forward, and the Bears quickly ran out of time. With just six seconds left, Williams snapped the ball, threw a prayer to Rome Odunze that landed incomplete and the game was over. Sloppy play by the players on the field, there is no doubt about that.
Still, the timeout should have been used. They could have kicked a tough field goal, which is certainly better than what they did. Once Eberflus saw that the original plan had gone to shit, the timeout simply had to be burned. No discussion. Ask for the waiting time. After a six-game drop from 4-2 to 4-8 with the latter failing so pronounced, Eberflus had to leave. That part makes sense.
What didn’t make sense is how the Bears handled Eberflus’ firing. For some reason, Eberflus was able to have a press conference with reporters on Friday after the game where he said he had been focused on preparing for the 49ers. Shortly afterwards it was revealed that Eberflus had been fired, which I thought was a bit in bad taste. Why force him to talk about the mistake if he won’t have the opportunity to rectify it? Let it go after the game and move on. That part was a little weird.
The Bears’ season has become a cringe-fest, which is fair to say because of how some of their games ended. Their season is certainly over, but at least they have a solid foundation to build on for the new head coach. It could be worse, it could be the Raiders.
Brock Bowers should be offensive rookie of the year
Reject the quarterback’s hive mind! Don’t let the media make you think they are the only players on the field! There have been some rookie quarterbacks who have played well for their experience level and deserve praise for their performances this year, but there is one rookie who is playing like one of the best players in the entire NFL: Raiders tight end Brock Bowers.
Bowers has been sensational and should be the clear favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year as one of the best tight ends in the league. According to TruMedia data, Bowers has been arguably the most productive tight end in the league, especially considering his volume of targets (and that he’s actually the only scary offensive threat the Raiders have). Among all tight ends with at least 40 targets this season, Bowers is first in receptions (84), yards (884), targets (113) and targets per route (0.28). He also ranks fourth in yards per route (2.18) and first downs and touchdowns per route (10.6%). That’s great! Again, not just for a rookie, but that makes him one of the most productive tight ends in the league.
This is not a situation that is exactly conducive to success for a rookie player. The Raiders have had a tourniquet at the quarterback position with Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder. The Raiders have had one of the worst games in the league this season. Davante Adams was traded early in the season, creating a huge target void for the Raiders. Bowers had to be the guy right away to make the Raiders offense competitive this season, and he has been.
Overall, Bowers’ 884 receiving yards rank fourth in the league and he leads the entire league in receptions. He is having a historic great season as the focal point of the Raiders offense. Yes, the Raiders’ offense is bad, but it would be completely unsustainable without their presence. At this rate, he is on pace to have 1,252 receiving yards as a rookie, which would break the record for rookie yards for a tight end set by Mike Ditka in 1961 (1,076). He’s also on pace to join Ditka and Kyle Pitts as the only tight ends in NFL history to have 1,000 yards as a rookie.
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If this doesn’t deserve the rookie of the year award, get rid of the award. The fact that Bowers is on a bad team shouldn’t be something he’s held against here. Everyone knows the Raiders’ problems run deep and that the tight ends ultimately have a limited impact on winning if they are the only best players on the team. He should be the leader of this award and win it outright if he can keep it up.
The Raiders didn’t put much thought into their draft strategy and went straight for the “Best Player Available” and landed themselves an absolute superstar in the making. At least they did one thing right!
What exactly are the Chiefs this year?
Let’s be brief: doubt the Chiefs at your own risk. They’ve been disappointing given the absurd standard they’ve set for themselves in recent years, but they’re still one of the best teams in the league. I care about every person who takes the time to read this column and would hate for them to incur the wrath of Patrick Mahomes as the Chiefs fight their way toward home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Ignore how to beat mediocre or downright terrible teams. Ignore the Bills who beat them earlier in the season. You know what the deal is with this team. The data doesn’t matter. Wait until the playoffs before you even think about doubting what this team is capable of doing. Mahomes is reading everything. Make sure you keep your team safe and don’t add fuel to the fire.