Fires in Australia have grown so large that they generate unpredictable new weather patterns
Fires in Australia have become so large that they generate new weather patterns and break the computer models that are used to predict where they will spread
- Computer programs used to predict the path of forest fires do not work
- Local officials describe the situation as ‘an absolute worst case scenario’
- Local people are encouraged to evacuate until conditions improve
The fires swept through Southwest Australia in recent weeks have grown so large that computers cannot accurately predict where they will spread.
The New South Wales nationwide fire brigade regularly used computer models to predict what the fires were like, but discovered that they had underestimated their movements on Thursday.
According to local officials, the scale and unpredictability have achieved what they describe as ‘an absolute worst case scenario’.
Fires in Australia have become so large that they are changing the weather patterns in South-West Australia, which means that modeling software is unable to accurately predict where they will spread.
One of the problems is that as the fires grow in intensity as they spread, they have changed the local weather.
Those sudden changes have created much of the weather data that the forecast models rely on inaccurately.
“Everyone says the same thing; and that is that much of the scientific modeling that we use to try to predict where fire could occur can not just handle the fire load of what is happening in the landscape, “said Andy Gillham of the Gippsland incident control group ABC news.
Due to the deteriorating circumstances and unpredictability, officials encouraged the local population to evacuate their homes instead of staying behind and trying to protect them.
“There is no sugar layer on it,” Gillham said. “There is no safe place, but there are safer places.”
On New Year’s Day, 17 people died in the fires, 1,400 homes were destroyed and more than 500 million animals died.
Local officials have encouraged residents not to stay behind to protect their homes, given how unpredictable the fires have been. “Just go away,” said Andy Gillham from the Gippsland incident control group.
Officials expect conditions to begin to improve on Sunday morning when some forecasts expect rain showers, but they emphasized safety and self-preservation.
“We just want to reinforce that message: just leave,” said Gillham.
The fires have criticized Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who was on vacation with his family in Hawaii when the fires worsened.
From New Year’s Day, the fires had killed 17 with a further 18 people reported missing.
More than 1,400 houses had been destroyed and 500 million animals were reportedly killed.
One farmer, Coolagolite’s Steve Shipton, was forced to kill 20 of his own cows before evacuating to ensure that they would not suffer unnecessarily.
SCOTT MORRISON’S BUSHFIRE PUBLIC RELATIONS
November 20th: Morrison tweet: “It’s going to be a great summer of cricket, and for our firefighters and fire-affected communities, I’m sure our boys will give them something to cheer about.”
December 16: Nationals leader Michael McCormack is appointed acting PM amid terrible forest fires. NSW MLC David Shoebridge tweets that he has heard that Morrison is on vacation in Hawaii. The Prime Minister’s office will not confirm where Morrison is or when he will return.
December 17: McCormack says he will be prime minister until December 19. The Prime Minister’s office continues to refuse to answer questions about Mr. Morrison’s whereabouts.
December 18: The prime minister’s office still says nothing.
December 19: Tourists post photos on social media from Mr Morrison in Hawaii. Volunteer firefighters Geoffrey Keaton and Andrew O’Dwyer, both young fathers, are killed.
the 20th of December: Mr. Morrison announces that he will shorten his vacation to return to Australia. He makes a statement that he “deeply regrets” every violation he has committed. He tells 2GB: “You know, I don’t hold a snake.”
December 31: Mr Morrison holds an exclusive party at Kirribilli House as large parts of the NSW South Coast and Victoria’s eastern burning.
January 1st: Mr. Morrison holds a position for the Australian and New Zealand cricket teams at Kirribilli House prior to the SCG test.
January 2nd: Morrison describes the forest fires as ‘something that will happen against the backdrop of this test match’. A fireman refuses to shake hands with Mr Morrison in Cobargo, on the south coast of New South Wales.
January 3rd: Morrison donates a bag of groceries to bushfire victims who have lost their homes in East Gippsland.