Feinberg Prediction: Updated Emmy predictions one week before final voting closes

KEEP IN MIND THAT: This forecast, compiled by The Hollywood ReporterScott Feinberg, executive editor of awards coverage, reflects his best attempt at predicting the behavior of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at this conclusion through consultation with voters and strategists, analysis of marketing and campaigns, results of awards leading up to the Emmys, and the history of the Emmys themselves.

*BEST DRAMA SERIES*

Projected positions
Succession (HBO/Max)
The White Lotus (HBO/Max)
The last of us (HBO/Max)
You better call Saul (AMC)
House of the Dragon (HBO/Max)
Andor (Disney+)
The crown (Netflix)
Yellow jackets (Show Time)

*BEST COMEDY SERIES*

Projected positions
The bear (FX)
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Abbot Elementary School (ABC)
Barry (HBO/Max)
Jury duty (Amazon Freevee)
The wonderful Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)
Only kills in the building (Hulu)
Wednesday (Netflix)

*BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES*

Projected positions
Beef (Netflix)
Dahmer – Monster: The Story of Jeffrey Dahmer (Netflix)
Daisy Jones and the Six (Amazon)
Fleishman is in trouble (FX)
Obi Wan Kenobi (Disney+)

*BEST TV MOVIE*

Projected positions
Strange: The Story of Al Yankovic (Roku channel)
Prey (Hulu)
Fire Island (Hulu)
Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic Christmas (NBC) — podcast (Dolly Parton)
Hocus Pocus 2 (Disney+)

*BEST VARIETY TALK SERIES*

Projected positions
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) — podcast (Stephen Colbert)
Jimmy KimmelLive! (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
The problem with Jon Stewart (Apple TV+)
Late night with Seth Meyers (NBC) — podcast (Seth Meyers)

*BEST SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES*

Projected positions
Last week tonight with John Oliver (HBO/Max)
Saturday Night Live (NBC) — podcast (Lorne Michaels)
A Black Lady sketch show (HBO/Max) — podcast (Robin Thede)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (LIVE)*

Projected positions
The Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show starring Rihanna (Fox)
Chris Rock: Selective outrage (Netflix)
Elton John Live: Farewell to Dodger Stadium (Disney+) — podcasts (Elton John & Ben Winston)
The Oscars (ABC) — podcast (Jimmy Kimmel)
The 75th Annual Tony Awards (CBS)

*BEST VARIETY SPECIAL (PRE-RECORDED)*

Projected positions
John Mulaney: Baby J (Netflix) — podcast (John Mulaney)
Carol Burnett: 90 years of laughter + love (NBC) — podcast (Carol Burnett)
Norman Lear: 100 Years of Music and Laughter (ABC) — podcast (Norman Lear)
Trevor Noah: I wish you would (Netflix) — podcast (Trevor Noah)
Wanda Sykes: I’m an entertainer (Netflix)
Lizzo: Live in concert (HBO/Max) — podcast (Lizzo)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NONFICTION SERIES*

Projected positions
The US and the Holocaust (PBS) — podcast (Ken Burns)
Secrets of the Elephants (Nat Geo)
Wave of 100 feet (HBO/Max)
The 1619 Project (Hulu)
Dear Mama: The Saga of Afeni and Tupac Shakur (FX)

*BEST DOCUMENTARY OR NON-FICIAL SPECIAL*

Projected positions
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple TV+) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
being Mary Tyler Moore (HBO/Max)
Judy Blume forever (Amazon)
Pamela: a love story (Netflix)
My transparent life (Amazon)

*BEST HOSTED NONFICTION SERIES OR SPECIAL*

Projected positions
My next guest needs no introduction with David Letterman and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Netflix) — podcast (David Letterman)
Stanley Tucci: In Search of Italy (CNN)
The Light We Carry: Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey (Netflix)
The United Shades of America with W. Kamau Bell (CNN)
Taste the nation with Padma Lakshmi (Hulu)

*BEST STRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected positions
Strange eye (Netflix)
Shark cage (ABC) — podcast (Mark Cuban)
Love is blind (Netflix)
Antique road show (PBS)
Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives (Food)

*BEST UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM*

Projected positions
RuPaul’s Drag Race: Not Tucked Away (MTV) — podcast (RuPaul)
Welcome to Wrexham (FX) — podcast (Ryan Reynolds)
indian matchmaking (Netflix)
sell sunset (Netflix)
Vanderpump Rules (Bravo)

*BEST REALITY MATCH PROGRAM*

Projected positions
RuPaul’s Drag Race (MTV) — podcast (RuPaul)
The voice (NBC)
The great race (CBS)
Top chef (Bravo)
Survivor (CBS)

*BEST GAME SHOW*

Projected positions
Danger! (syndicated)
That’s my Jam (NBC)
The price is correct (CBS)
Wheel of Fortune (syndicated)
Family Feud (syndicated)

*BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected positions
Pedro Pascal (The last of us)
Jeremy Strong (Succession)-podcast
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Bob Odenkirk (You better call Saul)-podcast
Jeff Bridges (The old man)-podcast
Brian Cox (Succession) — podcast

Projected positions
Sarah Pike (Succession) — podcast
Bella Ramsey (The last of us)
Sharon Horgan (Bad sisters)
Melanie Lynskey (Yellow jackets)
Keri Russell (The diplomat)-podcast
Elizabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)-podcast

Projected positions
Matthew MacFadyen (Succession)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus) — podcast
Alan Ruck (Succession)
Alexander Skarsgard (Succession)-podcast
Will Sharpe (The White Lotus)
Theo James (The White Lotus)
Michael Imperioli (The White Lotus)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORT IN A DRAMA SERIES*

Projected positions
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Rhea Seehorn (You better call Saul) — podcast
J. Smith-Cameron (Succession)
Elizabeth Debicki (The crown)
Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus)-podcast
Megan Fahy (The White Lotus)
Simona Tabasco (The White Lotus)
Sabrina Impacciatore (The White Lotus)

Projected positions
Jeremy Allen White (The bear)
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
Bill Hader (Barry) — podcast
Martin Short (Only kills in the building)-podcast
Jason Segel (Shrink)-podcast

*BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected positions
Quinta Brunson (Abbot Elementary School) — podcast
Christina Appelgate (Dead to me)
Rachel Brosnahan (The wonderful Mrs. Maisel)-podcast
Jenna Ortega (Wednesday)
Natasha Lyonne (Poker face)-podcast

*BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING COMEDY SERIES*

Projected positions
James Marsden (Jury duty)
Tyler James Williams (Abbot Elementary School)
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The bear)
Phil Dunster (Ted Lasso)
Henry Winkler (Barry)-podcast
Anthony Carrigan (Barry)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORT IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected positions
Ayo Edebiri (The bear)
Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbot Elementary School)-podcast
Hannah Waddingham (Ted Lasso)
Janelle James (Abbot Elementary School)
Alex Borstein (The wonderful Mrs. Maisel) — podcast
Juno Temple (Ted Lasso)
jessica williams (Shrink)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected positions
Pedro Pascal (Saturday Night Live)
Nathan Lane (Only kills in the building)
Oliver Platt (The bear)
Sam Richardson (Ted Lasso)
Luke Kirby (The wonderful Mrs. Maisel)
Jon Bernthal (The bear)

*BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES*

Projected positions
Taraji P. Henson (Abbot Elementary School) — podcast
Quinta Brunson (Saturday Night Live) — podcast
Judith Light (Poker face)-podcast
Sarah Niles (Ted Lasso)
Harriet Walter (Ted Lasso)
Becky Ann Baker (Ted Lasso)

*BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected positions
Eve Peters (Dahmer – Monster: The Story of Jeffrey Dahmer)
Steven Yeun (Beef)-podcast
Taron Egerton (Black bird)-podcast
Daniel Radcliffe (Strange: The Story of Al Yankovic)
Michael Shannon (George & Tammy)-podcast
Kumail Nanjiani (Welcome to Chippendales)-podcast

*BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected positions
ali wong (Beef)
Jessica Chatain (George & Tammy) — podcast
Riley Keough (Daisy Jones and the Six)
Kathryn Hahn (Little beautiful things)-podcast
Dominique Visrug (Swarm)
Lizzy Kaplan (Fleishman is in trouble)

Projected positions
Paul Walter Hauser (Black bird)-podcast
Ray Liota (Black bird) — podcast
Young Mazino (Beef)
Joseph Lee (Beef)
Richard Jenkins (Dahmer – Monster: The Story of Jeffrey Dahmer)
Murray Bartlett (Welcome to Chippendales)
Jesse Plemons (Love death)

*BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORT IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE*

Projected positions
Niecy Nash Betts (Dahmer – Monster: The Story of Jeffrey Dahmer)
Claire Danes (Fleishman is in trouble)-podcast
Merritt Weaver (Little beautiful things)
Camila Morrone (Daisy Jones and the Six)
Mary Bello (Beef)
Annaleigh Ashford (Welcome to Chippendales)
Juliette Lewis (Welcome to Chippendales)