Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Post-TIFF Look at the Oscar Race

KEEP IN MIND THAT: This prediction, compiled by The Hollywood Reporter‘s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections based on consultation with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results from awards ceremonies leading up to the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars themselves. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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Best photo

Leaders
Oppenheimer (Universal)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Poor things (Searchlight)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
American fiction (Amazon/MGM)
Past lives (A24)
The survivors (Focus)
Master (Netflix)
The zone of interest (A24)
Nyad (Netflix)

Major threats
Anatomy of a fall (Neon)
All of us strangers (Searchlight)
Dream scenario (A24)
Origin (Neon)
Spider-Man: About the Spider-Verse (Sony)
American Symphony (Netflix)
Rustin (Netflix)

Possibilities
The taste of things (IFC)
Sky (Amazon/MGM)
May December (Netflix)
Salt burn (Amazon/MGM)
Stupid money (Sony)
Fair game (Netflix)

Can’t make calls yet
The color purple (Warner Bros.)
Ferrari (Neon)
The Iron Claw (A24)
The murderer (Netflix)
Napoleon (Apple/Sony)
Priscilla (A24)

Best director

Leaders
Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor things)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Jonathan Glazer (The zone of interest)

Major threats
Celine Song (Past lives)
Cord Jefferson (American fiction)
Bradley Cooper (Master)
Alexander Payne (The survivors)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a fall)
Andrew Haigh (All of us strangers)
Ava DuVernay (Origin)

Possibilities
Jimmy Chin and Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad)
Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
Emerald Fennel (Salt burn)
Ben Affleck (Sky) — podcast
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers & Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: About the Spider-Verse)
Anh Hung Tran (The taste of things)
George C. Wolfe (Rustin)

Can’t make calls yet
Blitz Bazawule (The color purple)
Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)
Garth Davis (Enemy)
Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
David Fincher (The murderer)
Michael Mann (Ferrari)
Ridley Scott (Napoleon)

Best Actor

Leaders
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Leonardo Di Caprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Paul Giamatti (The survivors)
Bradley Cooper (Master)

Major threats
Jeffrey Wright (American fiction)
Nicolas Cage (Dream scenario) — podcast
Andrew Scott (All of us strangers)
Matt Damon (Sky)
Barry Keoghan (Salt burn)
Christian Friedel (The zone of interest)

Possibilities
Alden Ehrenreich (Fair game)
Teo Yo (Past lives)
Koji Yakusho (Perfect days)
Benoit Magimel (The taste of things)
Gaël Garcia Bernal (Cassandro)
Paul Dano (Stupid money)
Taron Egerton (Tetris) — podcast

Can’t make calls yet
Adam Driver (Ferrari)
Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
Michael Fassbender (The murderer)
Paul Mescal (Enemy)
Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)

Best actress

Leaders
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Emma Stone (Poor things) — podcast
Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Carey Mulligan (Master) — podcast

Can’t make calls yet
Halle Bailey (The color purple)
Danielle Brooks (The color purple)
Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
HER (The color purple) — podcast
Taraji P. Henson (The color purple) — podcast
Lily James (The Iron Claw) — podcast
Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon)
Tilda Swinton (The murderer)
Maura Tierney (The Iron Claw)
Shailene Woodley (Ferrari)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Leaders
Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor things (Tony McNamara)
American fiction (Cord Jefferson)
The zone of interest (Jonathan Glazer)

Major threats
All of us strangers (Andrew Haigh)
Origin (Ava DuVernay)
Spider-Man: About the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord and Chris Miller)

Possibilities
Nyad (Julia Cox)
Stupid money (Rebecca Angelo and Lauren Schuker Blum)
The Cyclists (Jeff Nichols)

Can’t make calls yet
The color purple (Marcus Gardley)
Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin and Brock Yates)
Enemy (Garth Davis and Iain Reid)
The murderer (Alexis Nolent and Kevin Walker)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)

Best Original Screenplay

Leaders
Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
Past lives (Celine Song)
The survivors (David Hemingson)
Dream scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)
Anatomy of a fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)

Major threats
Master (Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer)
The teachers’ room (Ilker Çatak & Johannes Duncker)
Salt burn (Emerald Fennell)
Fair game (Chloe Domont)
Sky (Alex Convery)

Possibilities
May December (Sam Burch and Alex Mechanik)
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black and Julian Breece)
Cassandro (David Teague & Roger Ross Williams) – podcast (Williams)
Flora and son (John Carney)

Can’t make calls yet
The Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)
Napoleon (David Scarpa)

Best International Feature Film

Leaders
The zone of interest (United Kingdom)
The taste of things (France)
The teachers’ room (Germany)
Perfect days (Japan)
20 days in Mariupol (Ukraine)

Can’t make calls yet
Io Capitano (Italy)
Godland (Iceland)
Shayda (Australia)
Association of the Snow (Spain)
Fallen leaves (Finland)
Blaga’s lessons (Bulgaria)
Four daughters (Tunisia)
About dry grasses (Turkey)

Best documentary film

Leaders
American Symphony (Netflix)
Kokomo City (Magnolia)
The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
The deepest breath (Netflix)
Beyond utopia (side of the road)

Major threats
20 days in Mariupol (PBS)
The eternal memory (MTV)
The mission (Nat Geo)
Stamped from the start (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
Still (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)

Possibilities
Bobi Wine: the people’s president (Nat Geo)
Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
Everyone (Focus)
To kill a tiger (still looking for US distribution)
King Coal (still looking for US distribution)
The competition (Magnolia)

Can’t make calls yet
also known as Mr. Chow (still looking for US distribution)
Black ice (Lions Gate)
A compassionate spy (Magnolia)
Copa 71 (still looking for US distribution)
Provocative (still looking for US distribution)
The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
Hollywood Gate (still looking for US distribution)
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I am everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
Orlando, my political biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodic (MSNBC)
While we watched (PBS)
Your fat friend (still looking for distribution)

Best animated film

Leaders
Spider-Man: About the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Elementary (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
The boy and the heron (GKIDS)
They shot the pianist (Sony classics)
Nimona (Netflix)

Major threats
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Relief)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Chaos (Decisive)

Can’t make calls yet
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest & Celestine: A Journey to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The first slam dunk (GKIDS)
Lion (Netflix)
Migration (Relief)
Robot dreams (Neon)
Stop motion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls unite (Dream works)
Wish (Disney)