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The following is an excerpt from the latest edition of Yahoo’s fantasy football newsletter, Get to the Points! If you like what you see, you can subscribe for free here.
The initial questions can be nerve-wracking for even the best fantasy managers. Here’s a traffic light report to help you prepare for Championship Week.
Green light
QB Jared Goff on the 49ers
It’s all fit Goff’s fantasy value perfectly in recent weeks: Detroit’s defense has fallen apart and the offense no longer has David Montgomery to gobble up touches and touchdowns. Goff’s stats over the past three weeks are almost too good to be true: 11 touchdown passes, 1,113 passing yards, 132 attempts. Pinball will likely be in the cards when the Lions and Niners play on Monday, so get your popcorn ready.
TE Chig Okonkwo at Jaguars
He’s been a target hog since Mason Rudolph took over, with 17 receptions and 21 targets over the past two weeks. The Jaguars don’t defend much of anything, including tight end; They are the seventh best matchup for the position. Sometimes it takes a while for tight ends to figure things out; that’s what Okonkwo seems to be doing at the end of his third season.
WR Jalen McMillan vs. Panthers
He’s the second receiving option for an offense we trust, and this game has a juicy 48.5 total. McMillan has four touchdowns in his last three games and narrowly missed a long score late in the loss to Dallas. Baker Mayfield will make sure the rookie gets multiple opportunities on the field.
WR Deebo Samuel Sr. vs. Lions
If you missed the fantasy playoffs, Samuel may have been one of the key reasons: he did little during a two-month period in the middle of the year. But Samuel was back in business in Miami last week (12 touches, 121 yards from scrimmage, touchdown) and Detroit’s defense is the most injury-plagued unit in the league. Points will be scored here and Samuel will also be needed as a substitute runner.
WR Davante Adams on the Bills
Aaron Rodgers’ reboot of Adams took some time to come together, but we’re here: Adams has double-digit goals in 6 of 7 games and five touchdowns in his last four starts. You can understand why Garrett Wilson is considering a trade: Adams has basically pushed him out of the way. Buffalo’s slot coverage has been an issue all season, and that’s where Adams takes advantage.
WR Jordan Addison vs. Packers
Obviously, Justin Jefferson is the alpha in this receiving room, but you also have to leave room for Addison: He’s the WR6 in midpoint PPR scoring over the last six weeks. With Sam Darnold in good shape and head coach Kevin O’Connell calling big plays, Addison is off to a confident start against anyone. Green Bay’s pass defense has been excellent, but offenses control outcomes more than defenses. I’m not going to sit Addison down anywhere.
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yellow light
RB Jerome Ford vs. Dolphins
Another Dorian Thompson-Robinson start is a loss for Cleveland’s passing game (I can’t start Jerry Jeudy), but DTR’s struggles didn’t stop Ford last week: Ford still managed 131 total yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati. Look for 15-20 touches from Ford regardless of the game script against Miami; He is a capable runner and receiver.
RB Tyjae Spears at Jaguars
He’ll probably have to share with Tony Pollard again, but Spears is carving out a place for himself on the goal line, gobbling up four touchdowns in the last two weeks. He’s also had double-digit touches in both games, which is often the tipping point where a bench player becomes a viable flex option.
QB Bryce Young on the Buccaneers
He’s added a running component to his game lately, with touchdowns in two straight starts and 68 yards in Arizona’s season-ending upset. The Buccaneers are also the No. 3 matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Young’s spotty career to this point prevented him from being included in the green section, but he is a viable streamer for those in deeper pools or two-quarterback leagues.
RB Ameer Abdullah on the Saints
I understand it’s hard to trust the Raiders’ offense week to week, but Abdullah has the pass-catching role locked in and was surprisingly useful as a running back against Jacksonville. And you certainly want to start running backs against a New Orleans team that has fallen apart in recent weeks.
QB Drake Maye vs. Chargers
He’s been in the 18-20 range in four of his last five starts, showing star quality despite an average set of talent around him. Maye’s athleticism and running ability give him a slick backboard, similar to what we saw in Bo Nix earlier this year. Imagine what Maye can do in future seasons if the Patriots fix the offensive line and get at least one playmaker on the field. I’m not afraid to use him in a pinch against the Chargers.
Red light
QB Jordan Love on the Vikings
Understand that Minnesota’s secondary is vulnerable: the Vikings love to blitz, but often allow big plays down the field. But the Packers have redefined themselves since the bye week, going 5-1 and throwing just 143 passes in that span (23.8 per week). Love offers little as a runner and his passing volume could have a reasonable limit unless the Vikings rush to a significant early lead. I’d rather bet on someone with a more plausible ceiling.
Quarterback Kyler Murray on the Rams
It was fun to see Murray return to his fighting style last week after several weeks of limited running, but remember, the Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention after losing that game to Carolina. Murray is also working behind a fragmented offensive line that will be without any of his starting tackles. With nothing to play for and no key teammates, I don’t want Murray in my championship lineup.
WR Amari Cooper vs. Jets
The usage here doesn’t make any sense: Cooper absorbed 14 targets in the pinball game against the Rams in Week 14, but has only had two looks (and a negligible sack) since then. The Bills prefer a rotation with room for receivers, and if you have to rely on one of their receivers, Khalil Shakir is the right answer. I would have no problem removing Cooper in any format, even if my opponent had the opportunity to add him before Sunday.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Chargers
New England’s offensive line can’t be trusted and Stevenson has to share the job with Antonio Gibson, not to mention the 20 to 40 yards that Drake Maye will likely run. Stevenson is simply the RB31 as of Week 10, not an automatic fantasy starter. He has also had an ongoing fumble problem.
Denver backfield at Bengals
It’s not a killer shot when two running backs share the work of an offense, but when you see three, it’s time to run. Jaleel McLaughlin (quad) is expected to return this week, which means Sean Payton has three cards to play with his running back rotation. Cincinnati is a good matchup, but there’s no discernible pattern to his usage here.
TE Brenton Strange vs. Titans
He made a reasonable play last week after 11 catches in Week 15, but a fall and fumble landed him on the bench in the fourth quarter, and he’s not 100% healthy either. The electric Brian Thomas Jr. is the obvious target of this offense; If I have to look deeper, I would prefer WR Parker Washington over Strange.