Fantasy Football Rankings: RBs one analyst likes more than consensus

ECR stands for “Classification by expert consensus,“, which stands for the average ratings of the fantasy football industry and is generally similar to PDP (which differs from site to site). This ongoing positional series willpower Highlight some major differences between ECR and my own ranks.

Go here for quarterbacks.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

REC:RB3 vs. My rank:RB2

Hall averaged the third-most 0.5 PPR fantasy points (17.3) from Week 5 onward last season once he began seeing full snaps while returning from ACL surgery. Only Christian McCaffrey totaled more fantasy points during that span despite Hall playing for a New York offense that managed the second-fewest yards per play (4.3). The Jets quarterbacks were truly disastrous Without Aaron Rodgers, New York averaged just 15.8 points per game (fourth fewest) and provided Hall with the 43rd highest number of attacks in the red zoneThe Jets had somehow just… A carry inside the five-yard line and none at the goal line last season. Hall had just 3.3 expected rushing touchdowns — but he remained a fantasy star.

He’s a special running back who somehow leads all RBs in YPC after contact. and yards per route traveled since entering the leagueHall has a better YPRR rate than CMC despite playing in the bottom three and recovering from major knee surgery.

Historically, runners show real improvement in year 2 post anterior cruciate ligament surgery and Hall He already led all RBs in receptions last season. Hall feels Back to his old selfand a returning Rodgers will be A major upgrade at quarterbackThe Jets have a dominant and revamped defense Their poor offensive line Early in the draft and during free agency, Hall averaged the most fantasy points. When his team was winning and the most valued second chances as a favorite last season, and the Jets are the favorites in 14 of the 17 games for 2024.

Given the lack of Tier 1 RBs, Hall is the No. 2 player on my board in 0.5 PPR leagues, but his REC He’s seventh. I’m closer to moving Hall to RB1 than RB3.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

REC:RB8 vs. My rank: RB6

Henry’s declining numbers over the past two seasons (when still scored 25 TDs) were More of a product of a poor Titans offense. that Henry’s performance; he remained explosive and ranked third in YPC after contact Against stacked boxes in 2023He’s 30 now, but Henry’s touches were limited early in his career and He’s also simply built something different.Henry’s instant action was reduced to 53% last seasonBut he still led the league in rushing for the fourth time in five years on an offense that gained just 4.9 yards per play.

It is difficult to underestimate the magnitude of this improvement. Henry saw when he left Tennessee for Baltimore this offseason. Henry has run into More than 120 boxes for eight people than any other RB in the past three seasons, while Lamar Jackson helped a depleted Ravens RB group score the fourth most fantasy points last yearGus Edwards benefited from A lot of short yardage touchdownsand Henry’s style It seems to be a Great fit for Baltimore’s offense; his YPC career has taken a leap More than a full yard with a shotgun and pistol (5.1 YPC).

Henry has averaged nearly twice as many 0.5 PPR fantasy points. During the victories throughout his careerand no team He led more than the Ravens last seasonHenry has averaged 98.4 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) with 65 touchdowns in 59 wins compared to 49.1 rushing yards (4.0) and just 15 scores in 44 losses during his career. Baltimore is projected to win 11 or more games in 2024The Ravens would do it I would love to give Henry 300 carries. on an offense that averaged 28.4 points per game last year, and The king stay motivated.

Henry’s ADP is no longer a gift like it was earlier this summer, but he remains undervalued on draft boards.

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

REC:RB11 vs. My rank:RB7

Achane averaged the fourth-most 0.5 PPR fantasy points (16.5) last season despite playing five or fewer snaps in two games and never eclipsing 18 carries (or 38 snaps). The highest YPC (7.8) and rushing DVOA of any running back in NFL history. Achane Healthy rhythm throughout the season He completed 1,541 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns despite sharing the backfield with a RB who led the NFL in rushing TDs.

Achane averaged 115 yards from scrimmage when he played 40% of the snaps. He led the league in yards after contact per touch between many other hurried on Categories. Acane surpassed Mostert and had the same number of first reading objectives like Rachaad White in just nine healthy games as a rookie, so he has It is also legitimate to receive advantages.

Even with a healthy Raheem Mostert, Achane averaged more opportunities per game (15.1) that Jahmyr Gibbs (14.0) did with David Montgomery. Mike McDaniel expects a more muscular Achane to have a bigger role in year 2and the 32 years Mostert has a extensive injury history. Miami’s running backs accumulated 50+ points 0.5 PPR more than last season than any other RB group since 2020, and a healthy Achane Could explode into an expanded role.

The argument against Achane is primarily health-related, as he costs a top-30 pick after playing just nine full games while dealing with Multiple injuries as a rookieHe’s 1.75m tall and weighs 84kg, so asking him for more than 250 touches might be overkill.

Achane is without a doubt A riskier fantasy choice His historical efficiency will surely decline, but he also possesses league-winning potential given his individual ability and the likelihood of Mostert getting injured. Even if Achane misses games, few players are more likely to help win the week when healthy.

Achane is a bargain in the third round.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

REC:RB21 against. My rank:RB13

It’s generally best not to target 29-year-old running backs with a history of missing games, but Conner is ranked too low thanks to injury concerns and Trey Benson. Conner scored the most fantasy points of any RB Since week 13 of last season and finished third in rushing yards above expectationsonly behind Christian McCaffrey and Achane. Conner is An underrated three-down runner who quietly led all RBs in Runs of 20+ yards last season.

The cardinals were A top-10 offense after Week 10 after the return of Kyler Murray last season, when Arizona’s ground attack led the NFL in YPC (5.3) and EPA per attempt. Murray should improve during his second year after surgery, and the Cardinals added playmaker Marvin Harrison Jr. early in the draft. Trey McBride He looks like a star at the tight end position.and Arizona threw the ball with the sixth-most seconds remaining on the game clock last season (despite shaky quarterback play before Murray’s return).

Benson could eventually emerge as a nice insurance for Conner’s fantasy managers, but the third-round pick is currently in a fight for Arizona’s RB2 spothad a low score in athletics and is He is unlikely to steal many touchesConner is likely to miss a few games once again this season, but it can’t be stressed enough that ALL running backs carry significant injury risk. And Conner has a real chance to be a top-five fantasy running back when healthy.

You don’t even have to draft Conner where I have him ranked, as he is clearly the best target in the “RB dead zone.”

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

REC:RB32 vs. My rank:RB25

Spears was the only one RB will force more than 25 tackles in less than 100 carries last season, and ranked Third among backs in first-read targets As a rookie, Spears recorded the fourth-most yards from scrimmage (1,837) His last year at universitywhere he especially excelled in shotgun; Brian Callahan’s Bengals ranked third in shotgun rate last season.

Meanwhile, his competition for touches has shifted from Derrick Henry to Tony Pollard. Pollard has admitted that he wasn’t feeling quite right after playing Tightrope surgery Until the middle of last season, and there is no doubt Improved in the final stretch. Still, their numbers held up Disappointing in the second halfand Pollard somehow ended up as the RB22 (11.5 FPPG) despite having the second-most red zone touches (72) in the league behind a solid offensive line. Spears had more targets and 24% more receiving yards while he traveled 75 fewer routes than Pollard last year.

Spears may not have A long career in the NFLbut is he A much better bet than Pollard in 2024. Their ADPs should be invested.