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Sometimes it’s all about the moves you make. No do.
For over 25 years, I have spent a significant portion of the offseason creating my own projections. My 2024 projections are firmly in place, with several players ranking much lower in my final analysis than in Yahoo!’s consensus rankings. These players will not be anywhere near my 2024 lists, and I urge you to take a second look at them before clicking on their names during your draft.
Yahoo Ranking:QB7 vs. My ranking:QB10
I have no problem with drafting Murray as the low-end QB1 this year, but I’m also realistic about what he’s accomplished (and what he hasn’t) over his first five seasons. The Oklahoma alum has never thrown for 4,000 yards and has a career-high 26 TD passes. On the rushing side, he produced memorable numbers in 2020 (819 yards, 11 scores) but hasn’t reached 500 yards or surpassed five TDs in any other season.
Murray has a nice set of weapons at his disposal this season, but it’s not a group that ranks among the NFL’s best yet. I don’t see the logic in ranking him above Jordan Love, who was explosive in his first year as a starter, or Dak Prescott, who has been an excellent passer for several seasons. And ranking Murray above Joe Burrow makes me think we’ve forgotten how good Burrow is.
Runners
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Yahoo Ranking:RB4 vs. My ranking:RB10
Taylor should finish among the 2024 leaders in rushing yards, but beyond that fantasy production component, there’s a lot working against him. The 25-year-old has never been a stellar pass-catcher (career-high 40 receptions), and there’s plenty of data showing that speedy quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson suppress passing volume from running backs because of their tendency to use their feet rather than let the ball go when their primary options are covered.
Richardson will also likely take touches away from Taylor in the red zone, as he has the size and speed to mimic Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts at the goal line. With Taylor’s high ADP, coaches should require their running backs to be more involved in the passing game and around the end zone.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
Yahoo Ranking:RB29 against. My ranking:RB34
Robinson is a poor version of Taylor, and his name appears on this list for the same reasons. Expected to be Washington’s primary back, Robinson has good potential, but his ceiling is too low to be reached in the middle rounds of drafts. The 25-year-old hasn’t reached 800 rushing yards in either of his initial two seasons and has averaged a paltry 4.0 yards per carry.
Robinson will need to improve significantly as a runner to make an impact in fantasy as the Commanders brought in Austin Ekeler for pass-catching duties and speedy rookie QB Jayden Daniels is more likely to take off and run than hand the ball to his safety valves.
Ultimately, Robinson’s touchdown total could be reduced by Daniels’ ability to get the ball into the end zone on his own.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Yahoo Ranking:WR11 vs. My ranking:WR23
Why are we so excited about Olave? Is it his nine touchdowns in 31 games? Is it his career-high 1,123 yards from last season? Is it the Saints’ slim chances of improving their passing game after making virtually no personnel changes?
Okay, I’ll stop making snarky comments. Derek Carr is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL and New Orleans has no one who can challenge him.
The saints have a weak offensive line and are below average at running back and tight end. In short, Olave is a good player on an offense that otherwise stinks. The Ohio State alum will get his 1,000 yards, but his touchdown total will be low and he lacks the support to have a breakout season.
I’ll be back with Olave in 2025, once the Saints revamp their offense.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Yahoo Ranking:RB20 vs. My ranking:WR31
When he’s at his best, Pittman is a target-hog who achieves fantasy value through elite volume. But I’m not sure the volume is there with Anthony Richardson under center. After all, we don’t have a significant history between the two players, as Pittman spent most of last season catching passes from Gardner Minshew.
With a career mark of 10.9 yards per reception, Pittman will need more than 90 catches to be a 1,000-yard receiver, and the odds of him reaching a yardage total as high as 1,200 are especially low. As for scoring, the 26-year-old has recorded just 15 touchdowns in 62 career games, and it’s unlikely he’ll score at a higher rate now that the Colts’ backfield includes two elite options in Richardson and Jonathan Taylor.
Tight end
David Njoku
Yahoo Ranking:TE10 against. My ranking:TE12
I don’t have a major problem with Njoku’s ranking on Yahoo!, but I do want to single him out as someone I don’t want to draft this year. Last season, the University of Miami alum did most of his damage with Joe Flacco under center. Njoku’s top three yardage totals came in the five games Flacco started, and he scored four of his six touchdowns under Flacco’s leadership.
The 28-year-old hasn’t accomplished anything of note with Deshaun Watson, and he’ll have to fight for Watson’s attention after the Browns traded for wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in the offseason. He’d rather select Pat Freiermuth or Brock Bowers, who rank several spots behind Njoku in Yahoo!’s consensus rankings.