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We’re officially into Week 3 of the NFL season, and the quarterbacks still aren’t “playing” the way we expected. The veterans who have rejoined the team are still dominating (even Andy Dalton and Malik Willis stepped up with top-10 performances this week) and the young players we expected to make a jump in year two or make an immediate impact, while the rookies aren’t quite measuring up.
It’s time for us to evaluate their performances after Week 3 and our confidence level in their receivers.
Fantasy superstar QBs fail to reach fantasy draft value
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud’s early-season production isn’t panic-inducing, but over the past two weeks, he’s finished outside the top 15 in fantasy points. His only top-10 finish came in Week 1 against an Indianapolis defense that has had its share of early-season struggles, including allowing Caleb Williams to have the best performance of his early career (we’ll get to that in a second). This week, Stroud completed 20 of 31 passes for 215 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions — his worst fantasy performance of the season.
Pulse check: Will Stroud get a pass for his early season performances?
I’m willing to give Stroud a pass for his Week 3 performance against Minnesota. In the words of Brock Purdy, that “plan is crazy.”
But it’s concerning that we haven’t seen Stroud surpass 260 passing yards yet. Stroud’s fantasy value comes from volume. He lacks the rushing potential to get him over the 20-point threshold in fantasy. Two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns is a good day for a quarterback, but it’s simply not enough for Stroud to pay off in his ADP.
If you look at Stroud’s schedule, you’ll start to see a problem. Outside of the occasional matchup, Stroud’s schedule isn’t particularly quarterback-friendly. Stroud goes from a solid mid-level quarterback to a borderline quarterback with limited running potential.
There is a secondary question we need to answer: are we concerned about Stroud’s receptors?
Stroud’s current volume is enough to secure weekly fantasy potential for Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Dell had his best performance of the year in Week 3, but he’ll remain a volatile asset until Stroud starts consistently seeing 300-plus yard performances. While we’re concerned about Stroud’s overall performance, there’s no panic for the receiving corps outside of Dell.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
The concerns for Richardson are far more significant than those for Stroud. While Stroud has had rather mediocre performances, Richardson has been up and down this season, and we’re faced with the reality of what Richardson’s fantasy production looks like when he doesn’t get rushing touchdowns. It’s not that we expected a significant jump in Richardson as a passer, but his skill set is volatile. Richardson relies heavily on the deep ball with an extremely high average depth of target. When he gets it right, it’s magical. After two straight misses, though, our confidence level is dropping.
Pulse Check: Are We Ready to Label Richarson a Failure?
The main concern here is that Richardson’s metrics are on the decline. Our 2023 sample size was admittedly small, but Richardson had just one interception on 84 attempts. This year, he already has four interceptions on 53 attempts. In 2023, Richardson had a completion percentage of about 60%. This year, it’s 49%.
This week’s game was an intriguing one. Despite Richardson’s struggles and low scoring, Indianapolis had plenty of opportunities in the red zone. When it came to goal-line passing opportunities, the Colts leaned heavily on Jonathon Taylor. We drafted Richardson for his running back potential, but if goal-line passing continues to tip in Taylor’s favor, we’re in big trouble.
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With Taylor’s dominance at the goal line and Richardson’s struggles in the air, are we worried about Richardson’s receivers?
Unlike Stroud, Richardson’s underwhelming performances are taking a significant toll on his pass catchers. Michael Pittman Jr. has a career-high of just four receptions and 36 receiving yards. On Sunday’s Fantasy Football Live, I expressed concern about Pittman’s future; that still holds true after today’s game. Deep-ball players like Alec Pierce certainly benefit from Richardson’s skill set, but they’ll be volatile, low-target players that you’ll never feel comfortable starting.
Deep-league QB with major implications for his weapons
The good: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams had his best performance of the season in a high-volume game in which he threw 52 passes, completing 33 of them for 363 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Forty-four yards of that was a tipped pass late in the first half that DJ Moore caught. Regardless, this was a huge step in a positive direction for Williams and the Bears. That said, it’s important that we pause and put this performance into context before making Williams the starter this week.
Pulse Check: Is this level of production the new expectation for Williams?
Indianapolis’ defense is a problem… and not in a good way. Williams’ strong performance against the Colts isn’t exactly setting a new standard for what to expect going forward. Sacks are still an issue for Williams, turnovers are still an issue, and the run game offers limited support. The schedule ahead for Williams is favorable, but he’s still just a passing option. Rome Odunze’s step forward was an excellent sign for his development, and Cole Kmet’s resurgence was exciting. It remains to be seen what kind of spread we’ll see from a fully healthy receiving corps, but the increased volume and excellent matchups help instill confidence in Williams’ pass catchers going forward.
The bad: Will Levis, Tennessee Titans
In Levis’ defense, the Titans’ early schedule has been extremely hostile. Chicago and the Jets have two of the best defenses in the league and Green Bay’s passing defense looks to be much improved in 2024 with the addition of Xavier McKinney. Levis has four touchdowns on the season with five interceptions, along with a lost fumble in each game. His performance in Week 3 was a slight improvement from previous weeks, but that level of performance simply won’t cut it.
If we wanted to excuse Levis, there is plenty of reference material. However, there are only so many excuses you can make when half of the mistakes are entirely your fault. Levis is not only fighting against tough defenses, but against himself.
As far as Levis’ receivers go, his inconsistencies make it difficult to trust his receivers. Levis’ volume isn’t enough to supply multiple fantasy-relevant receivers, particularly when a significant portion of his passes go to running backs. Of Levis’ 26 completions, seven went to Pollard and Spears. We can expect Calvin Ridley to operate as the WR1 in good matchups and DeAndre Hopkins to step up if coverage is blocking Ridley. Levis’ struggles put his receivers in flexible positions with associated volatility.
The Ugly: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Much like Levis, Nix had his best performance of the year, and much like Levis, we still don’t have any incentive for consistent fantasy production. When we analyze Nix, we look at it from a perspective of how his play affects the weapons around him because Nix simply can’t be relied upon even as a streaming option in deep leagues, and only offers desperate Superflex value.
Pulse Check: Is there a single worthy starting option for the Broncos’ offense?
We’re three games into the season and Nix has yet to throw a touchdown. He has four interceptions and hasn’t thrown for more than 250 passing yards, and most of his fantasy value comes on the ground. While Levis has managed to provide some fantasy value, Nix’s struggles through the air have destroyed any receiver’s consistency and potential.
Courtland Sutton’s performance in Week 3 was his best of the season, but he still nets us just 10 fantasy points in half of PPR. Josh Reynolds has taken a step forward as the Broncos’ WR2, but he remains a low-volume asset and there’s no consistency for a third pass-catching option with Greg Dulcich going from a leading scorer in Week 2 to zero targets in Week 3. The Broncos’ entire offense remains untouchable until Nix can provide both volume and touchdowns.
