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This isn’t the first time we’ve visited the Bears on my weekly Pulse Check and it probably won’t be the last. With a rookie quarterback at the helm under questionable leadership (looking at you, Matt Eberflus), there are bound to be ups and downs.
We’ll start Bears when we probably shouldn’t have*cough cough Roma Odunze in Week 4* and we will seat the players in the weeks in which they leave. As time goes on, we’ll have a clearer picture of the Bears’ fantasy outlook.
This week, the Bears dominated the Panthers with a 36-10 victory, showcasing an offense that finally appears to be coming together after weeks of relying on the defense to carry the load. The Bears earned their second straight win and took full advantage of a porous Panthers defense, both on the ground and in the air, and this new offensive surge and balance is exactly what we’ve been waiting for. With some favorable games ahead, this could be the stretch where we see the Bears not only survive but thrive and produce multiple fantasy assets worthy of starting top-10 leads.
So let’s dive into what’s been working, what still needs tweaking, and why there’s hope for the Bears moving forward.
Caleb Williams
We’ll start at quarterback because everything begins and ends with your quarterback; ask the Browns. Taking a cursory look at Williams’ Week 5 numbers, there appears to be inconsistency. However, while the volume lacks consistency, there is a clear upward trend in Williams’ overall performance.
The rise began in Week 3, where Williams had a sudden and dramatic increase in volume with 52 total attempts, completing 33 for 363 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. That was against an Indianapolis defense that is extremely easy to attack with volume in the air. We saw it this week with Trevor Lawrence, who threw for 371 yards, and in Week 4 with Justin Fields’ 300-yard game. So in the context of the matchup, the volume makes sense and there is a logical reason for the outlier. Ideally, we would have liked to see a more efficient performance from Williams, but seeing the Bears rely on him to get into the matchup was a positive sign.
Week 4 was a drastic difference, with Williams throwing the ball just 23 times, completing 17 for 157 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Williams was efficient, made no mistakes, and cruised to a low-scoring victory.
This week, with an extremely advantageous matchup against the Panthers, Williams put on an absolute clinic, completing 20 of 29 attempts for 304 yards and two touchdowns, no interceptions and five carries for 34 yards.
Pulse Check: Is Williams’ recent success just a function of good matchups?
Williams is certainly in the easier part of Chicago’s schedule, but next month looks just as promising. Chicago faces Jacksonville, Washington and Arizona before the schedule gets tougher in Week 10. This stretch offers development opportunities where he should continue to put up solid numbers and adjust to the NFL under friendlier terms. The strong indicator of Williams’ success, and how it affects the team going forward, is that it’s not just Williams who has had success: the entire offense has flowed well. We’re starting to trust Williams and the fantasy assets around him as a whole.
This was the first clear overall pick we were hoping to see and fantasy managers should lean toward this pass-friendly streak.
Wide Receivers: DJ Moore vs. Rome Odunze vs. Keenan Allen
Heading into the season, of all the receiving corps in the league, the Bears honestly made me the most uncomfortable. It’s certainly not for lack of talent; They arguably have one of the best bodies in the league. The problem was that we didn’t have a clear indicator of who would really stand out or what level of consistency we could expect on a weekly basis. Even setting aside the volatility of a rookie quarterback, we’re talking about the team’s current WR1 in Moore, a veteran receiver with multiple top-10 fantasy finishes and a known target grabber in Allen, and a rookie top-10 receiver Best in Odunze. It would probably be a bit complicated.
Week 1 was an anomaly with Allen dominating the targets. While Allen was out in Weeks 2 and 3, Odunze moved up, particularly in Week 3, where he had a target percentage almost identical to Moore’s but with more yards and a touchdown. With Allen’s return in Week 4, things have stabilized. Allen hasn’t particularly stood out, while Moore continues to operate as the WR1. Odunze’s Week 3 volume appears to be more of a blip.
Pulse check: Is there consistency at receiver beyond Moore?
Our confidence remains in Moore as the only consistent and reliable receiving option in Chicago. All three receivers have high ceilings, but Moore is the only one with a reliable floor, with his worst finish being WR44 in Week 1. Odunze has finished outside the top 50 in three of the five weeks so far. Allen has yet to surpass five fantasy points in average PPR scoring.
However, there are some positive takeaways here. When the entire receiving corps is healthy, the target percentage focuses specifically on those three receivers. There is potentially enough volume for all three to be relevant to fantasy. As Williams continues to develop and consistency flows in the passing game, we should see an increase in reliability from the receiving corps as a whole.
But for now, Moore is the only weekly starter.
Running backs: D’Andre Swift vs. Roschon Johnson
The Bears running back room has been a bit of a mess. Even though the Bears announced an increased role for Johnson, Swift has outperformed all of Chicago’s running backs in every game this season. Entering the week, Swift averaged 16.5 touches per game compared to 9.5 for Johnson and 3.3 for Khalil Herbert. And while Herbert has actually had more success in terms of fantasy points per touch compared to Swift, we should expect Swift to remain the leader going forward, particularly in terms of volume.
However, it’s hard to shake the feeling of those previous matchups where Swift couldn’t even go 30 yards on the ground.
Pulse Check: Can We Trust Swift’s Production?
Oddly enough, I think the Bears’ running back usage is pretty clear right now. Swift is a speedy runner who isn’t particularly underweight, but perhaps lacks the power to overcome tough matchups given the Bears’ struggles on the offensive line. That’s why he struggled early in the season and improved in matchups against the Rams and Panthers. We saw it last year when he played behind an excellent line in Philadelphia. When gaps exist and the line holds, Swift will thrive.
Johnson’s increasing role appears to be more related to short distances. Khalil Herbert has been excluded from the offense, but from a fantasy perspective, that benefits us.
The limited usage between Johnson and Swift makes fantasy production much easier to predict. Swift has an RB2 floor with RB1 upside in these favorable matchups. Johnson has independent value with potential goal-line touches. While his volume will likely continue to be limited to 10 carries, goal-line opportunities should flow over the next few weeks, making Johnson an RB3 with borderline flexibility going forward.
