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It can be very easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But fear not: Dalton Del Don is here to assess exactly how worried we should be, if we should be.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Reed has averaged just 3.5 goals over the last two games, and his route share (61%) fell below Romeo Doubs (93%) and Christian Watson (79%) last week. He has also gained zero yards rushing in the last three games. Reed is still the WR14 in fantasy points per game this season, but he is the WR53 in expected fantasy pointsjust ahead of a now-healthy teammate, Dontayvion Wicks (WR56). Reed ranks 42nd in targets (41) and 50th in target percentage (17.6%). This season he has only seen four goals inside the red zone.
Green Bay’s pass catchers are healthier than ever, but Jordan Love’s status for Week 9 is in doubt after he suffered a groin injury last game (the Packers may be more inclined to rest him with a rest in the next Week 10). Green Bay recorded an astonishing -18% rate of return over expected for two games with Malik Willis starting earlier this year, and last week he attempted just five passes in two quarters.
Reed is a great player who has recorded the second best Passer rating (141.0) when targeted this season, and this week he’ll have an exciting matchup against a Lions defense that will allow him by far the most fantasy points for the position. Will definitely post more peak weeks this year.
But the lack of volume (and the possibility of Love missing another game) makes Reed more of a mid-to-low WR2 going forward.
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JK Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins converted 24 opportunities for just 68 yards against a vulnerable Saints defense last week. Javonte Williams scored his only two touchdowns of the season the week before against New Orleans. Any running back can have a poor game, but there is concern that Dobbins is wearing down following Achilles tendon surgery. He earned 9.9 YPC and led the league in missed tackles forced per attempt through the first two weeks (against the Panthers and Raiders), but managed a modest 3.1 YPC while ranking 45th in MTF/att more than five games since then.
Dobbins wouldn’t be the first running back to shine for a couple of games upon returning from Achilles surgery only to fade away afterwards (James Robinson was the latest example). But that’s pure speculation, and Dobbins’ role remains elitist; Last week saw season highs in snap percentage (81%) and targets (seven). However, Kimani Vidal is now emerging as an alternative.
Additionally, Justin Herbert is third in pass attempts since the Los Angeles break after being one of the teams with the most runs in the league before. The volume has been good, but there is some concern given Dobbins’ extreme drop in efficiency following major surgery, a change in Los Angeles’ offensive philosophy and a tougher upcoming schedule.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Waddle disappointed during Tua Tagovailoa’s return last week, finishing as the WR57 while making a bad downfield drop in a favorable matchup with a banged-up Tyreek Hill. While one game is meaningless, Waddle now has a modest 15% target percentage on Tagovailoa’s 100+ pass attempts this season; Hill has a target stake of 28%, and De’Von Achane’s is also higher at 19%.
That said, there are reasons for optimism. Miami scored a season-high 27 points during Tagovailoa’s return last week, when the Dolphins’ neutral passing rate went from worst to almost first. Waddle had 122 targets and 1,380 receiving yards on his previous 17 matches with Tagovailoa before last week, and there are also contingency benefits in case Hill goes down.
Still, Miami’s offense hasn’t looked as explosive this season even with Tagovailoa, and Achane’s emergence in the passing game will continue to hurt Waddle’s volume. Waddle will be fine and will still be a top 25 WR, but there is obvious concern for those who drafted him and are hoping for more in 2024.
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud appeared on Panic Meter last week and things have only gotten worse. He finished as QB26 in a very favorable home matchup and lost Stefon Diggs for the season. Stroud has now finished as a top-five fantasy QB just twice during his career, with the last time coming in Week 12 of last season.
This isn’t necessarily Stroud’s fault, as Houston’s offensive line and injuries have contributed greatly. Stroud posted 8.0 YPA and averaged 270.4 passing yards in games with Nico Collins during his career, but those numbers drop to 6.8 and 229.8 with Collins sidelined (h/t RotoViz). Diggs is now out for the year with a torn ACL, and Tank Dell continues to look like a different player returning from a broken leg; Dell ordered a target share of 11.1%, the lowest of the season last week even though Collins and Diggs were out. dall ranges #86 in yards per run (1.10) this season.
Stroud will have a tough matchup Thursday night against a Jets secondary that allows the second-fewest passing yards per game (180.0), so he belongs on the fantasy benches. Collins’ possible return in Week 10 It will certainly help (and the schedule becomes more favorable), but Stroud is the QB22 this season, so his fantasy managers may already be in the corner of the situation.