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It can be very easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player’s performance. But fear not: Dalton Del Don is here to assess exactly how worried we should be, if we should be.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Hill has the 41st WR in fantasy points per game this season, and the return of Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t helped as expected. the dolphins frightfully have the 2nd lowest WR target share (49.1%) this season. Running back De’Von Achane led Miami in first read target percentage on Monday night, when Hill was tied for third place with tight end Jonnu Smith.
Hill has four times as many games with less than 25 receiving yards as he had done for the last two seasons combined. Tagovailoa Ranges 36 in Deep Shot Attempt Rate (7.7%). He recently passed Patrick Mahomes for the lowest average expected passing yards (5.4) among all quarterbacks this season. Hill has taken a backseat to an offense that no longer shoots deep (or scores as many points), and a wrist injury could help explain that.
Hill’s doll has been Molesting him supposedly since training camp. (and got worse during his arrest), and the initial MRI showed a torn ligament. I could be contributing to their declining road win rate this season. Hill’s fantasy managers are surely panicking given the new offensive and injury news.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Lamb could keep the fantasy production going with Cooper Rush in the past, but his first game this season was a disaster. Rush lost as many fumbles (2.0) as they got yards per attempt. was the Fewest passing yards in a game with at least 20 attempts since 2015. Rush finished with an above-expectation completion percentage (-13.5) in the eighth percentile despite an average depth of target of just 6.4 yards (18th percentile). Lamb’s 10 goals resulted in 21 scoreless yards, including miss a touchdown in the sun.
Trey Lance was no better, receiving two sacks and being intercepted on six pass attempts, as Dallas finished with 32 net passing yards. Dak Prescott is officially out for the season. A trade to Lance would be a disaster for Lamb’s fantasy value, but Rush is still the starter in week 11.
Lamb’s “expert consensus range” this week is WR15since it is difficult to lower a player too much who leads NFL in target percentage since Week 4. But Lamb’s new situation (and his banged up shoulder) has fantasy managers coming into the corner of the situation (he’s now a WR2).
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Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Williams is unlikely to be in many fantasy starting lineups these days, but managers still hope Chicago’s pass catchers have life. And from a broader perspective, there is real concern about the future of the top pick in this year’s draft. Williams is having one of the worst QB seasons in recent memoryranking last among 106 quarterbacks since 2021 in catchable pitch rate. He also classifies last in pressure-bag relationship during that period.
Chicago’s offensive line has been pass blocking averagewhile Williams has highest average time to press in the league. When I’m not pressed, Williams ranks 31st in success rate. he has the worst Completion percentage on throws longer than 15 yards among 468 QBs in the last 15 years. Williams’ first nine career starts have not been entirely as bad as bryce young or David Carr, but he’s right on his turf.
Williams has faced third QB schedule adjusted to easier schedule until now! And he gets the toughest eighth going forward. When not facing Jacksonville or Carolina defenses that rank in the bottom three in EPA/passing this season, Williams has averaged 179.3 passing yards (5.3 YPA!) with just three touchdown passes in seven games . The Bears fired OC Shane Waldron and even the discussion about benching Williams It’s shocking for someone with your university resume. Some veteran reportedly Teammates call for Tyson Bagent.
Bears’ offense ranks last in yards per drive, EPA/return, sacks allowed and touchdowns since their Week 7 bye. Chicago has not produced a top-20 performance at wide receiver since Week 6and DJ Moore has only one all season. D’Andre Swift also suffers from Williams’ issues, as his split between wins (108.6 yards from scrimmage, 0.75 TD) and losses (72.0 YFS, 0.2 TD) has been spectacular.
Williams obviously has plenty of time to improve, and a complete offseason coaching overhaul could help. But his start in the NFL has been very worrying and There’s no chance that New England o Washington would change its quarterbacks right now.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas Jr. has seen his targets cut in half with an average of just 17.0 receiving yards through two games. since he suffered a chest injury. It also suffered because Mac Jones took over at QB last week, which could last the rest of the season under Trevor Lawrence. dealing with a major shoulder injury. Jones posted a meager 4.5 YPA last week against a Minnesota defense allowing the seventh-most passing yards. Jones targeted his tight ends with 59% of his passes, which is not ideal for the rookie receiver. While Lawrence hasn’t been the prince we were promised, he still leads the league in end zone targets (after missing a game), and Jones is a notable downgrade.
Thomas occupies the top 10 in yards per run run and sixth in fantasy points per target as a rookie, but his rise to fantasy stardom will have to wait until next season.
JK Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins Weighted Opportunity Share fell to 56.5% last week with the return of Gus Edwards. Both he and Edwards had 10 carries before Dobbins took the final five. On the positive side, Dobbins recorded its highest route participation rate (74%) and target participation (17%) of the season with 18 touches.
Dobbins also had some bad luck last week, getting tackled at the one-yard line and watching Justin Herbert and Hassan Haskins score short touchdowns. But Edwards (or Haskins?) could be a problem at the goal line, and Dobbins has posted just 3.5 YPC since Week 3 while returning from Achilles surgery. Dobbins is still an RB2, but Edwards’ return is a blow to his fantasy value.