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As we approach peak draft season, ADP trends become even more critical to picking your perfect fantasy lineup. You can use trends to get ahead of the curve and make sure you don’t run out of players. sniper about players who are trending upwards or overdraft Players who are lowering their ADP.
The injuries are obvious. We know that players like DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown are down, while Calvin Ridley and Rashee Rice are up. But this week’s list includes players who are moving around without having injury concerns.
RISE ROOKIE QB: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders and Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Rookie quarterbacks are on the rise, inching closer to being selected in the top 12 at the position!
For Jayden Daniels, it’s a déjà vu experience. Daniels was on my list of players who were set to rise before preseason games, and I predicted his impressive start would spark an even bigger rise. On Saturday, Daniels made his second start, played two series and completed 10 of 12 passes for 78 yards plus 13 yards rushing.
Preseason stats don’t carry over directly to the regular season. Teams often experiment with lineups and work with players who are learning new offenses. Daniels won’t carry his impressive 80 percent completion percentage into the regular season, but he certainly looks the part of a QB1.
There has been some controversy over who Daniels’ WR2 will be, but perhaps it’s a sign of more depth at the position. Regardless, Daniels comes into the season with the perfect combination of passing volume and rushing potential with a solid supporting cast, which is well worth his jump in ADP.
Williams’ rise isn’t all that dramatic. While Daniels is very close to passing Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa in ADP, Williams is a bit further behind but still on the rise with solid preseason performances. The stats aren’t dazzling; Williams has completed 10 of 20 attempts in two games. But his 8.5 yards per attempt is impressive, and he’s shown excellent mobility in the pocket and added a rushing touchdown.
The Bears are implementing a new offense and working on using new additions to the receiving corps, so some hiccups are to be expected. But visually, Williams has shown the poise, vision and confidence of a veteran.
Are they going up in? my rankings? YES.
Am 100% On board with the rise of Daniels and Williams. The quarterback depth is extreme this year. Taking a chance on rookie quarterbacks is far less consequential when you can go on the waiver wire for solid weekly streaming options or select a stable backup option in the double-digit rounds.
RISER: Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Daniel Jones’ return to action was a mess that included multiple interceptions, including one pick for a touchdown. Despite the shaky outlook at quarterback, Nabers’ ADP is on the rise. Nabers continues to excel and looked like the clear WR1 for the Giants on Saturday, catching four of his team-leading six targeted passes for 54 yards, including a 21-yard reception in which Nabers rose to catch an off-target pass.
Nabers’ ADP continues to rise because Nabers isn’t the problem. The concern is consistency at quarterback and whether Jones can support a top-24 receiver.
Is he coming up? my Ratings? No, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
I’m perfectly comfortable with the idea of drafting Nabers at ADP, but it’s hard to see him move up in my rankings. He’s currently my WR23 just above players like Zay Flowers, Amari Cooper, and George Pickens. He’s also ranked just behind a handful of strong backs like Alvin Kamara, James Cook, and Joe Mixon. His current ranking is already pretty aggressive.
FALLER: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans
The players who went down this week aren’t particularly dramatic. In the past, we’ve seen players with injury issues or players who fell out of favor offensively. The players who went down this week are a bit more nuanced and they start with Chris Olave. Olave’s ADP has been on a very slow and steady decline. The drop isn’t Olave’s fault, though. Derek Carr continues to disappoint in the preseason and backups Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler don’t appear to be a significant improvement.
Carr has no problem getting targets and yards throughout the season, but game-to-game consistency and red zone issues have plagued him throughout his career. Of all the receivers selected in the early rounds, Olave is the one with the most unreliability status.
Is it falling? my Rankings? A little bit… but there is another problem.
Olave’s ADP is pretty aggressive, and the drop isn’t surprising. He’s one of the few early-round players who feels like he’s being drafted far from his ceiling, but at a level he physically can’t reach with Carr. It’s hard to drop Olave in ADP because he’s a clear WR1 in a known situation, and of all the WRs being drafted after him, he has the least competition.
However, I always pass on Olave in drafts. Olave’s ADP is an excellent range for reliable running backs and I usually pass on him in the second round to select them. Even if he falls to the third round, I’d rather take an elite quarterback or tight end. Olave just leaves me uninspired because of the supply limit.
FALLEN: David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions
This fall is very I find it intriguing because logic would say his ADP could be increasing with Jahmyr Gibbs dealing with an injury. Instead, Montgomery is regressing and we could start to see further decline as fantasy managers get more comfortable with players like Zamir White.
Montgomery’s situation is very clear. He’s on a committee with an electric running back who many consider to have overall RB1 potential. Montgomery’s value hinges on touchdowns. Fortunately for Montgomery, he’s in an excellent offense where goal-line opportunities will flow. But what happens if Gibbs starts eating into that work? Montgomery’s workload is no real guarantee.
Is it falling? my Rankings? Unfortunately, yes.
This offense is less clear-cut than when the backfield featured the duo of Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift. Swift was never allowed to touch the ball at the goal line and Williams led the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Unlike then, the Lions have more confidence in Gibbs.
Montgomery is a true two-down back and his goal-line work isn’t enough to give him significant upside. Montgomery could continue to fall if other backs like Zamir White and Swift demonstrate true use of these types of defenses.
