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After a full week of preseason action, we have ADP movement across the board! We start off with the ups and downs of last week with a group of players who saw movement based on training camp expectations and injuries.
This week, most of the movement can be attributed to real American football.
The weekend was filled with expectations, but many teams blessed us with key metrics that we can directly apply to our fantasy drafts. And as a result, this week’s list of rising and falling players has a theme that centers around highly debated players with uncertain positioning on their teams.
Let’s start with a combination of up and down that I’ve been looking forward to talking about: a combination of up and down of the same back field!
FALLEN: Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
RISER: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
I’m not kidding when I say I’ve been patiently waiting for Pollard to fall while Spears rises, specifically for this article.
I’ve spent much of the offseason debating who the Titans’ true RB1 is. Like many fantasy analysts, I was hoping that Derrick Henry’s departure would mean Spears could ascend to the lead back position after a promising showing in 2023.
Instead of starting Spears and adding a complementary short-yardage back, the Titans added Pollard, a back whose profile is very similar to Spears’.
Finally, all the offseason debates can be put to rest because the Titans were very generous and gave us a sneak peek at their running back usage for this season. Pollard started the game, but Spears played right away and the splits were pretty even. They were the only running backs to play with the starters and they were used interchangeably: both were used on every down and in the red zone. Spears got the touchdown.
The touchdown and the excitement of snaps with the starters are helping to drive up Spears’ ADP and Pollard’s ADP is naturally falling. Using two backs on every down isn’t common practice. But then again, Pollard and Spears are extremely similar and that type of usage would work well and allow the Titans to utilize a hot-hand approach.
Are they going up and down? my Ranking? No… but there is a valid reason.
For the record, I aggressively ranked Spears at RB26 before the Week 1 preseason game. My view for this backfield was that Spears would outperform Pollard and selecting him as a borderline RB2 was justified. The preseason performance doesn’t change how I view Spears. Pollard won’t drop in my rankings, though. A 1A/1B backfield was expected.
But Pollard looked excellent on Saturday with four carries for 31 yards and a long of 24. If this is a true split backfield of two talented backs, a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 for both players is warranted and that’s exactly where I have them both ranked.
RISER: Tank Dell, WR, Houston Texans
The Texans’ receiving corps rankings are one of the big mysteries of 2024. Nico Collins was the WR6 in Half-PPR last year and is the highest-ranked Texans receiver in Yahoo’s Expert Rankings. The ranking seems like a steal for a player who had a breakout year of nearly 1,300 yards and eight touchdowns.
Dell is currently the lowest-rated Texans receiver, but they’re still selecting him in the first six rounds. That’s not surprising. Dell is the least experienced and has played in just 11 total games, but only nine at full health. The volatility, durability, and uncertainty within the Texans’ receiving corps are all valid concerns with Dell as the likely WR3. This week’s preseason game confirmed that notion.
The Texans’ starters played just six snaps. Of those snaps, Collins and Stefon Diggs played all six, while Dell only played four. However, Dell did catch CJ Stroud’s only touchdown, a 34-yard bomb. That highlight alone will cause Dell’s ADP to skyrocket.
*Fantasy managers should note that Collins also saw a slight increase in ADP and Diggs saw a slight drop.
Is he coming up? my Rankings? A small, small part.
Dell’s potential is undeniable, but it’s hard to push him significantly higher in the rankings. There’s a bit of wiggle room in his placement, and I can justify potentially moving him ahead of teammate Diggs. But it’s hard to move him ahead of players with high potential who are clearly WR1s on their team — even their respective team itself is a bit pitiful.
FALLEN: Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Moss was inactive in the Week 1 preseason game, leaving many to wonder if his absence was an indicator of where he stood on the depth chart. However, the Bengals clarified that Moss was dealing with an illness. We’ll have to wait until Week 2 for the split between Moss and Chase Brown to become clearer, but Moss’ drop in ADP isn’t just a result of a Week 1 absence. Reports out of training camp regarding Brown have been extremely complimentary, with some writers stating that Brown looks to be the Bengals’ RB1.
With Moss gone, Brown was the only Bengals running back to play with the starters and play all 13 snaps with Joe Burrow. This is critical because no running back rotated on third down. Moss’ absence makes it difficult to assess with any certainty, but at the very least, this would indicate that Brown is a reliable third-down back for the starters. It would be hard to trust Moss if he wasn’t a three-down back.
Is it falling? my Ranking? Not yet, BUT…
Brown was already ahead of Moss in my rankings because of his potential value through the air. While Joe Mixon got plenty of opportunities at the goal line throughout his career as a Bengal, his receiving potential is what really drove his value as a top-12 running back. I won’t move Moss down the rankings until I see the actual distribution of this backfield.
If this is a real committee, Moss will fall in my rankings.
HUNTING: Tua Tagovailoa
How do you drop down the rankings on your day? off?!
Miami benched its starters this weekend, but Tua’s ADP is taking a slight dip. And while Tua doesn’t fit into the unclear position theme on his teams, his ADP is the most significant drop of any quarterback outside of Justin Herbert, who we talked about last week. I wanted to include Tua because I anticipate the dropoff continuing throughout the preseason.
Tua is the most natural quarterback to make the jump. As rookie quarterbacks continue to rise, he’ll have a tough time holding down his position. Tua has significant potential, but he’s struggled against tough defenses and the stigma should stick with him in 2024. When facing tough defenses, Tua’s lack of potential as a runner makes his backcourt pretty ugly. With rookies like Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, and even JJ McCarthy offering live arms, a talented receiving corps, and potential as a runner, Tua will continue to lack appeal and fall in ADP.
Is it falling? my rankings? YES… hardly likely.
While I have the utmost confidence that Tua will shine overall throughout the season, I want absolutely nothing to do with his playoff schedule: Houston, San Francisco and Cleveland, PLUS Week 14 against the Jets.
Because I know Tua is not usable long term, he will go down during the preseason and be replaced by rising quarterbacks.
