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The dormant page was dormant for most of Week 15. The Browns’ passing game was a disaster, Sincere McCormick and Zach Ertz were injured. Stone Smartt outperformed his projection (he’s also a reasonable pick going forward), but it’s not like 5-50-0 is a one-week winning return.
Let’s try to flip the script in week 16.
QB Drake Maye on Bills (13%)
Maye’s rookie year has been an overwhelming success, as he has remained composed and accurate despite the lackluster help around him (New England’s offensive line is a problem and the receiver room lacks a true number option. one). Maye also helps her cause with her athleticism and running ability. he is silent the QB12 in accumulated fantasy points since earning the starting job in Week 6.
No one expects New England to challenge Buffalo, but the Patriots will probably have to throw more often than usual, standard procedure for a two-touchdown underdog. Maye should be in the 16-19 point range this week.
QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Rams (40%)
I guess it’s better late than never, as Rodgers finally hit the 300-yard plateau two weeks ago and then exploded for 27 fantasy points last week. The Rams defense has been accessible to opposing quarterbacks, giving up the ninth-most quarterback points to opponents.
And Rodgers is finally starting to look comfortable again with Davante Adams: They were unstoppable in the second half against Jacksonville. Rodgers should be good for multiple touchdown passes and although the Rams didn’t show up on offense last week, I could see this game turning into a sneaky shootout.
WR Jalen McMillan on the Cowboys (38%)
It’s not unusual to see rookie receivers increase their production in the later stages of the season, when they have gained some experience and confidence. McMillan is one of those cases, with a serviceable line of 9-134-3 over the last two games.
The Tampa Bay-Dallas game has the highest total of the week, and the Cowboys are the 10th best matchup for opposing receivers. I imagine McMillan will see between 6 and 8 targets on Sunday night, and some of that work will be done in the end zone.
WR Rashod Bateman vs. Steelers (27%)
I’d like you to add and save Bateman for Week 17, when he brings in Houston’s leaky secondary. Pittsburgh is a tough matchup in Week 16 (the Steelers defend Lamar Jackson better than the rest of the league) and Bateman was quiet (2-30-0) in the previous meeting.
All that said, Bateman also has four touchdowns in his last five games and the Ravens like to throw some deep throws at him each week. Assuming Bateman’s midweek foot injury isn’t a concern, he’s worth considering as an emergency play this week, and a worthwhile depth addition as you look ahead.
TE Brenton Strange on Raiders (22%)
It’s strange to see Strange so available after his 11-catch game against the Jets. Obviously, no one expects Strange to repeat that line (and Jacksonville certainly won’t throw as much as he did last week), but he’s still the second read in this passing game and an easy target for backup QB Mac Jones.
Strange is dealing with a shoulder injury, so his practice status continues at the end of the week. But assuming he’s cleared, I think 5 or 6 catches is a starting point for him against a mediocre Raiders defense.
RB Kendre Miller on the Packers (30%)
There are a lot of moving parts here, as the Saints play Monday night and we still don’t know if Alvin Kamara (groin) will be available. The Saints also have a backup quarterback and will face a surging Green Bay defense. This game could easily get out of hand, with the Packers favored by about two touchdowns.
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But Miller has looked decent the last two weeks and if Kamara is knocked out, you’d think Miller should get 12-15 touches no matter how competitive the game is. That kind of workload is a currency in the fantasy world.
RB Alexander Mattison vs. Jaguars (43%)
I actually think Ameer Abdullah is a better player than Mattison right now, but they do different things. Abdullah’s fantasy case is better when the Raiders are underdogs (he’s the third-down running back), but Mattison has a more plausible path to touches given that Las Vegas is actually a slight favorite over the Jaguars.
Jacksonville’s defense stops almost nothing, and that includes the run: It’s the third-best matchup for opposing running backs in terms of fantasy points scored. Mattison saw double-digit carries in four straight games midway through the year, and I suspect he already has that workload in his back pocket as we approach game day. Volume is your best friend in the backfield.
RB Antonio Gibson on the Bills (11%)
I wonder when the Patriots will recognize Gibson as one of their impact players. He is averaging 5.86 yards per carry over the last five games and showed explosiveness as a receiver in the loss to Arizona. The passing role in particular will likely expand this week as New England appears to fall into a negative game script against heavily favored Buffalo. I can imagine a setup where Gibson hits double-digit points in any league that has some version of PPR scoring.