The NFL Draft has been fresh in our minds for just a few weeks, and with that, I thought it was a good time to delve into it. Professional football reference and see how well certain positions have performed as rookies in the fantasy era. The series begins with tight ends and will continue with the other top positions in the coming weeks.
Sam LaPorta broke the rules for rookie tight ends last season. We were all witnesses. He had 86 receptions, 889 yards, 10 touchdowns and even a pair of two-point conversions. He earned him the TE1 tag and second-team All-Pro honors.
It was the best rookie TE season of all time and easily the best tight end debut of the fantasy era. And it’s crazy to pursue that in the future. Unicorn seasons rarely repeat themselves.
I decided to investigate how early tight end picks had fared in the Fantasy Era, loosely defining that era from 2000 to the present. Obviously the game is constantly evolving and I would understand if someone would prefer a shorter data sample.
Let’s see what the draft trends show for rookies at this complicated position.
– Five tight ends were selected with top 10 picks during this period. Kyle Pitts had a peculiar rookie year, with 1,026 yards but only one touchdown. He was rated TE10 in standard; he has been TE33 and TE13 since then. Nobody will miss Arthur Smith in Atlanta.
– Kellen Winslow II was the sixth pick in 2004, he got hurt. He played only two games.
— Vernon Davis was all kinds of decorated as the sixth pick out of Maryland in 2006. He missed six games as a rookie and didn’t do much during the time he was healthy (20-265-3). Davis eventually developed into a good player, ranking at TE8 or better four times (and was the No. 1 TE in 2009). He also inspired a classic Mike Singletary rant.
– TJ Hockenson (eighth pick, 2019) is part of Iowa’s tight end legacy. His first year was disappointing: 32-367-2. He missed four games.
— Eric Ebron (10th pick, 2014) never received a pass he didn’t want to drop. He gave the Lions 13 mediocre games in his first year (25-248-1).
No wonder the fantasy ethos became “ignore rookie tight ends” in this period.
There are some occasional knocks when looking at other first-round tight ends (there were 27 total picks). Evan Engram’s 2017 debut is the best among first-round rookies in our target area: a 64-722-6 haul in 15 games. He surpasses Pitts in standard scoring; Pitts is slightly ahead in PPR. Engram was TE5 that year; He has been TE6 his last two seasons, reinventing himself with the Jaguars.
The Deodorant Touchdown (six touchdowns each) got a TE11 season from Heath Miller and a TE17 season from OJ Howard. Jeremy Shockey and Dalton Kincaid both surpassed 70 receptions. Noah Fant and Dustin Keller were the only other first-round tight ends to surpass 500 yards receiving.
The second round poll opens us up to some exciting seasons. LaPorta, of course, was the 34th pick in the 2023 draft. Rob Gronkowski had 10 touchdowns as a rookie; Pat Freiermuth was seven. John Carlson came in with a solid 50-627-5 season.
The later rounds include many players who became stars, although most of their debut seasons were uneventful. Aaron Hernandez had six touchdowns as a rookie. Mark Andrews, Chris Cooley, Jimmy Graham, George Kittle and Jordan Reed showed future potential.
I guess we also have to mention Captain Asterisk, Marques Colston. The Saints selected him in the seventh round of the 2006 draft, the 252nd overall pick. His 70-1,038-8 season was a monster, and it was especially fun in Yahoo formats, where he was eligible at tight end. If you included Colston at wide receiver, you enjoyed the WR14 season. If you could slide Colston to tight end, you had the highest scoring player at that position. Not bad for someone who largely went undrafted in fantasy leagues.
Too long, I didn’t read it
The 2024 rookie tight end class is ready to disappoint us.
Brock Bowers comes into the league with brilliant cuts from Georgia, but he landed on a Las Vegas team short on a quarterback, a touchdown-gobbling inside receiver (Davante Adams) and a solid tight end already on the roster (Michael Mayer). . Bowers is a modest TE16 in early Yahoo ADP, which seems fair to me. Talent is great, but adaptation is not.
The other rookie tight ends look like slow-developing prospects. Maybe Ben Sinnott (Pick 53) will eventually gain some traction in Washington. Ja’Tavion Sanders (Pick 101) heads to a Carolina roster desperate for pass catchers.
He was prepared to proactively draft Bowers if he landed almost anywhere other than Las Vegas. Now, he’s essentially not on my board of directors. Rookie life is generally difficult for first-year tight ends (it’s a complicated position that often requires a gradual introduction) and the Raiders have receiving options that take priority. And no one sees Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell as kingmakers.
“Vanish everything” is not a satisfactory conclusion, as I understand it. But as we continue this series of rookie surveys, we’ll find more optimism in some other positions.