They say knowledge is power. As someone who has dedicated his life to accumulating and disseminating knowledge, I largely agree. I always try to learn as much as possible before making a decision, and I don’t like being forced into one when I feel I’m lacking some information.
However, there is something exciting about the period of unknown: anything is possible.
Scientists studying gambling and addictive behavior have found that the part of the brain that sends reward signals via the neurochemical dopamine is most active during the period of uncertainty—that is, after the bet is made but before the outcome is known. This is true whether the bet wins or loses, and applies to a variety of gambling and gambling-related tasks. The implication is that the part of gambling that creates addiction is the possibility of what could be—the potential to win—rather than the winning itself.
We don’t have to be problem gamblers to appreciate this about our fantasy football lineups.
From the moment we drafted until Thursday night, our rosters were perfect. We could imagine the stats would stack up and just that little bit of desire led to a dopamine rush that made us feel good. Now that the games have been played and we know the outcome of our encounters, things have changed. We enjoy winning, of course, and we probably hate losing too, but the feeling that anything That possibility is long gone. The good news is that it will be possible again on Thursday morning. Most of us have a well of optimism that we can draw on again and again. With a few minor adjustments to our starting lineups, Week 2 could be perfect.
Today I’m going to talk about some things we wish we knew before Week 1…and what we know now for Week 2 and beyond.
With nine receptions on 12 attempts for 111 yards and a touchdown, Likely nearly doubled the fantasy rating of the next-highest TE (Foster Moreau). We’d seen flashes of goodness from Likely before, particularly when Mark Andrews was out for the second half of the 2023 season, but this came out of nowhere and likely didn’t help anyone win their fantasy week.
Andrews was drafted as a TE5-7 this season, so this statistic is concerning to some of you. I have nothing against Andrews and what he and Lamar Jackson have done over the years, but the Ravens would be foolish to leave Likely on the bench going forward.
This is a rare case where I’m making the early adjustment to add and start with Probably in place of Andrews for a juicy Week 2 matchup with the Raiders.
It was a tale of two receivers in a game in which the Saints scored a whopping 47 points against the Panthers. While Olave started every game, Shaheed only helped those in the deeper leagues. The box score exaggerates the discrepancy here. Shaheed caught three of five targeted passes for 73 yards and a touchdown, while Olave caught both of his for just 11 yards. The depth of Shaheed’s targeted passes was 20.5 yards, while Olave’s was 6.5 yards.
Both TEs also got involved, splitting seven passes and scoring a touchdown each, but as we know, the way to beat Carolina is on the ground. Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams, and even Jordan Mims were involved, splitting 30 carries and scoring two of the Saints’ touchdowns.
Shaheed’s spot on the field is secure and he’ll certainly get useful games at his flexible position, but Olave remains the must-start WR, even against Dallas in Week 2. If we see this kind of performance from Olave in Week 3 against Philadelphia, I’ll consider benching him, but not before then.
Dobbins finished the week as PPR’s RB4, racking up 135 yards on just 10 carries along with a rushing touchdown and three short receptions. He was dynamic, fast, elusive — pick your own adjective to describe an incredible performance, especially when you consider his extensive injury history (most recently a torn Achilles).
Dobbins clearly had the edge in this game, though Gus Edwards barely out-rushed him (just 11 carries for 23 yards). Next up are the aforementioned Panthers, and I’d be comfortable with either Chargers back starting in Week 2.
There were some interesting fantasy debates this summer, but perhaps none as divisive as the one over picking your favorite Packers WR. Reed made his stance clear, holding off all comers to finish as the top receiver of the week (four catches on six attempts for 138 yards and a score plus a 33-yard touchdown run). My original pick, Romeo Doubs, led the receiving group with seven attempts (catching four for 50 yards), while Christian Watson saved his fantasy line with a touchdown (three catches for 13 yards).
One thing we can all agree on is that the Packers’ offense is legit when Jordan Love is under center and it would be hard to bench any of these big three if they were healthy. In Week 2, optimism reigns even with the unlikelihood of Love starting as the Packers face the Colts, who just got ripped apart through the air (and on the ground, see below) by Houston.
So far, Mixon is the value of the 2024 draft. Time will tell if this performance has anything to do with the Colts’ run defense (which was one of the most generous in 2023), but Mixon’s 30 carries speak for themselves. Mixon reached the end zone once, totaling 153 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards on three receptions.
There weren’t many bad stats on the Texans’ offense (except Dalton Schultz), but will that be the case when they host Chicago next Sunday night? I expect Mixon to, at the very least, generate more of the same against a porous Chicago run defense.
Not all the stories here are happy.
While it was a competitive and entertaining game to watch (Go Bills!), it was hard to find the best rookie fantasy WR prospect. While Harrison played 95% of the teams’ snaps, he was targeted on just 8% of them. In fact, Greg Dortch was the go-to player with eight targeted passes (31% of passes targeted on run routes, with 6/47 yards), while Michael Wilson scored the Cardinals’ only receiving touchdown.
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He was already fully committed to Trey McBride this season anyway, but his nine pass-catching attempts cement him in starting lineups, despite the forgettable 5/30 reception line he put up with them. Suddenly, Harrison screams caution as a fantasy starter, as he finished his NFL debut catching one of three passes for just four yards. I would exercise that caution when considering starting Harrison in Week 2; the Cardinals are facing a Rams defense that did a great job keeping Amon-Ra St. Brown at bay on Sunday night.
When Williams envisioned his NFL debut, I’m sure it was pretty much the opposite of reality. He failed to throw or rush for a touchdown, racking up just 108 total yards of offense. On the plus side, he also didn’t throw an interception and recovered his only fumble. The Bears won, which might say more about the Titans’ offense and Chicago’s defense… but at least it shows a true team effort. With Tennessee boasting one of the best run defenses, there was more pressure on Williams to perform on Sunday (D’Andre Swift was limited to 30 yards on 10 carries). That, plus the normal learning curve for a rookie QB, contributed to Williams’ lackluster start. Williams won’t exactly have an easy time in Week 2 against Houston and may be benched for a better option (Justin Herbert, perhaps?).
Darnold’s performance and the value Jefferson could bring as a result was one of the biggest question marks of the summer. Week 1 was a huge relief for Jefferson’s management, even though the star receiver “only” had a 4/59/1 line. Darnold, more importantly, was not a disaster, throwing for an efficient 208 yards, two touchdowns and just one interception. Things could have been a lot worse (albeit against the NY Giants, right?).
I’m not declaring Jefferson out of the woods just yet, given the easy assignment in Week 1. The Week 2 matchup in San Francisco will provide more clarity on where to start with Jefferson and continue to wait and see with Darnold, even in SuperFlex formats.
