One round less, two to go! Whether you’re coming off a bye or emerging victorious thanks to any (or several) of Week 15’s dominant Fantasy performances, we’ve got the tips you need to keep the momentum going all the way to the championship.
If you were eliminated from the playoffs last weekend and are here just out of habit, I love it! Starting Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry was supposed to turn out better than this. Nobody told me either that Mac Jones, Cooper Rush and Drake Maye were the key to winning the week while Jameis Winston, Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa were the fantasy poison.
You have three options now. First, you can fondly look back on the wild rollercoaster of a season, appreciate how far you came, and reflect on whether you logically could have done anything differently. Sometimes the answer is no. You do your best and fantasy points will sometimes go the other way. But if you can learn something about your tendencies to keep and start players based more on name value and ADP than actual performance and matchup, or when to waste all your FAAB, or whether you should be more open to trade offers, learn the lessons.
The other way to go is total anger. Play loud, loud music, delete all fancy (other) apps and podcasts, sulk, and of course, wish the worst to the league mates who beat you up with Jerome fucking Ford or Rashad Batemon.
Finally, try another fantasy format. Play DFS. You’re here, you might as well use the information!
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Back to the coaches moving forward: Before I get into some player-specific advice (I’m going to put them in bins based on confidence levels this week), I want to follow up on a few points from last week and zoom out to Una look at motivation across the league. Motivation matters A LOT this time of year. Teams with nothing to play for can rest starters in favor of overhauling rookies or giving players with expired contracts a chance to show what they can do before the offseason. Your best option will be to start players on teams fighting for a playoff spot or have the biggest lead possible.
Let’s look at some examples.
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Teams in search of a playoff spot, most motivated: Baltimore, Denver, LA Chargers, Tampa Bay, LA Rams, Green Bay, Washington, Seattle, Atlanta. Technically, New Orleans, San Francisco, Arizona, Cincinnati, Dallas, Miami and Indianapolis They are not eliminated yet either.
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Teams in playoffs, motivated by classification: Kansas City, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Houston, Detroit, Philadelphia, Minnesota.
Interesting games to target for Week 16:
Rams at Jets – The Rams have a good chance of doing it, but victory here would bring them closer to securing it. The Jets have allowed nearly 28 points per game over their last three games (eighth most in the NFL). The Rams’ “big three” of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams are obviously must-starts, as are the Jets’ trio of Davante Adams, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The game has a 46.5 point over/under.
Eagles in commanders – An important one for the NFC East, where the Eagles clinch the division with a victory. Defense could make the difference here; Philadelphia has been holding its opponents back (allowing the second-fewest points in the last three games and tying the fewest points allowed on the season). With Zach Ertz in concussion protocol, the Commanders may feature rookie Ben Sinnott for the first time this season, but he’s not someone you can bet your fantasy championship on. The Eagles are favored by 3.5 points with a 45.5 point over/under.
Cardinals at Panthers – If ever there was a timely boost to your team’s playoff hopes, this is it. James Conner should continue leading Fantasy managers to the finals this weekend. Although he’s been disappointing, Marvin Harrison Jr. is still the best bet for a Cardinals wide receiver. He leads the group in targets by a wide margin, although Trey McBride is the real hero of this passing offense. Arizona is favored by four points and the over/under is 47 points.
Vikings at Seahawks – Everything is going swimmingly for the Vikings, who are averaging 31.7 points per game in the last three. They haven’t been as good on the road, but ironically, Seattle has been worse at home this season, averaging just 19.1 points per game. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been big disappointments, but Minnesota gives up the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. If your decision comes down to game script and DvP (Defense vs. Position), I’ll start any Seahawk receiver this week (Geno Smith’s health permitting, of course). The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites with a 43.5-point over/under.
49ers at dolphins – Both teams need a win, which won’t be possible, but could provide some nice fantasy fireworks. Miami is the 1.5-point favorite with a 46-point over/under. The truth is, if you started with Tua, Hill or Jalen Waddle, you probably won’t move on. But Hill should recover and Jonnu Smith should continue to feast (he’s fourth in targets with a 78.7% catch rate and six touchdowns this season). The 49ers were pretty forgettable in Week 15, but they have a few more days to rest. Isaac Guerendo, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle should remain in the starting lineups, although Miami’s DvP at wide receiver and the lack of production we’ve seen from Deebo Samuel Sr. earn him a spot on the bench.
Bucs vs. Cowboys – Another great NFC matchup with 49 points over/under and the Bucs favored by four points. Dallas has one of the largest scoring differences between home and away. They average only 16.6 points at home (26.0 away). Still, Cooper Rush has been effective in his last two games, throwing five touchdowns (to four different receivers) and just one interception. CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle are the only players I would trust. On the other hand, Mike Evans is a no-brainer, but Jalen McMillan is a starter. With nine catches on 13 targets and three touchdowns in his last two games, he’s fully integrated into the Bucs’ offense and Dallas is a friendly matchup (9th most fantasy points allowed to WRs).
Now that the Bucs are using three running backs, it’s hard to feel good about either Rachaad White or Bucky Irving, but I’d start both this week. White has three touchdowns in his last two games and Irving’s big-play ability has him averaging 5.6 YPC with six touchdowns this season.
Saints in the Packers – This game should end the Saints’ playoff hopes, although as evidenced by the 42 point over/under, their defense has been more effective lately (they’ve given up the third-fewest points over the last three weeks). Still, the Packers are favored by 13.5 points, which is a testament to their own defense and Spencer Rattler’s lack of offense (the Saints have also scored just 15.7 points per game in their last three, the fifth worst record in the league). . I’m not willing to trust Kendre Miller, Márquez Valdés-Scantling or any other Saint in a must-win playoff matchup. Likewise, we’ve been struggling with Green Bay’s receiving pecking order, or lack thereof, all season long. Josh Jacobs, at least, is a no-brainer here, but it’s hard to sit Jayden Reed, Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs when any of them have a 2-TD lead. This will be a very matchup-specific decision; If you need 10 guaranteed fantasy points, I’d look elsewhere, but if you’re a big underdog in your matchup, start your Packers’ WR.
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Teams that do not make the playoffs and are the least motivated: New York Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, New England, Las Vegas, Chicago, Carolina, New York Giants.
Aside from a few stars like the aforementioned Adams, Wilson and Hall and Brian Thomas Jr., Brock Bowers and Malik Nabers, I prefer to avoid these teams. Most of us will have to start with Jerome Ford, Tony Pollard, Jerry Jeudy, Keenan Allen, and maybe Jakobi Meyers, too. Additionally, the game script could be very good for the Bengals (Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) against the Browns, although a win this week probably won’t be enough to get them into the playoffs. Now is the time to keep your eyes and ears open for any signs of teams shutting down a player or committing to giving more action to a younger player.
To be clear, this is more to avoid a decreasing workload than to take advantage of a possible Greater workload on a bad team.
In summary, target starting players on teams with the highest scoring per game, teams with the highest implied individual totals, and games with high over/unders. Look for the best rushing and passing matchups, using DvP primarily as a tiebreaker. In Week 16, it’s the tried and true fantasy players who are poised to take you to the championship round. This is not the time to overthink the obvious and modify your template. If your justification for making a lineup change contains a lot of “maybes,” “mights,” or “mights,” don’t do it! Maintain the calm and rational personality we mentioned last week and make it to the finals.