Each week during the 2023-24 NBA season, we’ll delve into some of the league’s biggest stories in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more on fact or fiction moving forward.
(Last week: Joel Embiid and the 76ers will have a painfully long season)
Fact or fiction: Under the rise of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are contenders again
We have heard the story of LeBron James.”supercomputer“brain. He knows what you are going to do before you do it, or this is how the story goes. Except, it seems, when you’re Evan Mobley, with a new arsenal of moves.
Early in the fourth quarter of Wednesday’s game between the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell grabbed a rebound and quickly found Mobley in transition. James did the defensive homework, backing away casually, as if not anticipating his opponent’s next move. Sure enough, as Mobley has done repeatedly early in the season, he drove to the rim and scored early in the shot clock.
He was the epitome of everything new head coach Kenny Atkinson has preached entering his tenure: everything the Cavs have done to become the only undefeated team in the Eastern Conference.
Play with pace and attack the rim, especially if you’re Mobley, a 23-year-old Defensive Player of the Year finalist who is only now, in his fourth season, beginning to deploy the wide ranges of his offensive skill set.
Cleveland’s 101.7 possessions per game reflect the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA, and its 59.6 drives per game are the third-most in the league. The Cavs ranked 24th and 17th in those respective categories last season. His number of field goals attempted in the first third of the shot clock has also skyrocketed.
Mobley has been the biggest benefactor. The faster pace is providing more opportunities for everyone, and Mobley is using a quarter of his team’s possessions when he’s on the court, up from 20% last season. His drives have doubled to nine per game and he is creating more offense of his own than ever.
Tristan Thompson simplified it, via Fred Katz of The Athletic: “More of a ‘fuck you’ attitude this year“.
About 70% of Atkinson’s job interview focused on “How are we going to use Evan? How are we going to grow your game?” he told ESPN’s Chris Herring. The results are in, at least after five games, and they are spectacular. Cleveland’s 123.4 points per 100 possessions lead the league and would represent the best offensive rating in NBA history. the league if the Cavs can maintain that level of efficiency for a full year.
They can’t. Or it won’t. The Boston Celtics recorded the highest effective field goal percentage (57.8%) in history last season. The Cavs have an effective field goal percentage of 62.4%. The difference between them and the current runner-up (57.5%) is equal to the difference between the teams in second and 18th place.
When asked if he anticipated the offense would gel so quickly, Atkinson admitted: “Honestly, I’m a little surprised.“.
They will regress, hopefully not to the level of last season, when they placed in the middle of the pack. They will not continue scoring 25.2 points per game thanks to turnovers, the highest number in NBA.com database.
But what’s important is the basic principle: vaccinate them and get them up early, even if they don’t get help. They probably can’t continue making 40% of their 13 three-pointers per game as a team. On the other hand, the Celtics try nearly twice as many per game, and while they don’t convert them at the same rate, the end result is the same: an elite offense that maximizes their considerable talent.
That hasn’t been easy in Cleveland, where Mobley and Jarrett Allen have filled the space for Mitchell and Darius Garland. At least put the ball in Mobley’s hands more often, do “what Giannis (Antetokounmpo) does“, as Atkinson has said, forces Mitchell and Garland strips the ball, reorienting the space within the offense. Placing Allen in a corner also helps. Even if his shot doesn’t attract the defense, Allen’s athleticism (cutting quickly and putting pressure on the rim if ignored) commands respect.
The last piece of that puzzle is Mobley’s three-point shot. He is shooting 50% on 1.6 3-point attempts per game. The league has yet to challenge him. (He shot 28.6% on 3.3 attempts per 36 minutes in the preseason.) Convert even league-average from distance into increased volume, and defenses won’t be able to ignore Mobley on the outside, creating even more space, on or off the ball.
That he’s already one of the most efficient high-usage players in the NBA is a great opening statement.
It will be more difficult. Defenses will build walls to prevent Mobley from penetrating the paint, as they do against Antetokounmpo, and creating plays from that point takes practice. If Mobley can shoot over the wall, what a problem that would be. The more pressure he puts on, the better chance he has of finding Mitchell, Garland and whichever wing wins the job. Everyone is prepared to shoot at will in Atkinson’s system, or attack closeouts, sending the defense into a rotation that can’t contain Cleveland’s talent.
Will the Cavs continue outscoring their opponents by 20 points per 100? significant possessions when Allen and Mobley share the apartment? Probably not, considering they essentially played opponents even in double-big lineups last season. But can they replicate their +8.6 net rating from two seasons ago, when Cleveland had the league’s best point differential? That seems doable, given their improved offensive core.
Because the defense is always there. The Cavaliers have ranked no lower than seventh on that end in three seasons since pairing Allen and Mobley. They rank fourth after five games this year, allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions, a standard that would have led the league last season.
The question is whether they can find some level of consistency in this good offensive start. Their first three wins came against Toronto, Detroit and Washington, a trio of projected lottery teams.
“It’s a new system, so you’re learning new things, but now Are we willing to continue doing different things? that have made us successful…when is it not so easy?” Mitchell asked, according to Cleveland.com.
Victories over the Knicks and Lakers reinforced that this was no fluke: that their connectedness can avoid crumbling against more formidable foes. As Atkinson told reporters and Mitchell reiterated: “When you’re connected and talented, you can do some big things in this league..”
Consistency is key, especially for Mobley, who won’t turn 24 until June, when he hopes his team will continue playing. There is no overnight rise to stardom. But the Cavs are winning per 100 possessions by 32.7 points when Mobley is in the center spot, and stay connected is easier than get connected.
So when Mobley walked past James, perhaps it was more than a manifestation of everything Atkinson had preached. Early in the game, Cleveland paid tribute to James’ contribution to the city championship, to which Mitchell said: “Do you want to be the next“Maybe Mobley was staking his claim to that throne.
Determination: Made. Under the rise of Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are once again contenders.