Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll delve into some of the league’s biggest stories in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more on fact or fiction moving forward.
(Last time on Fact or Fiction: There should be a trade market for Zion Williamson)
Fact or fiction: this is Donovan Mitchell’s moment
If you had the time, you could probably name the nine-man list of 10-time NBA All-Stars who have never won a championship: James Harden, Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, Patrick Ewing, Charles Barkley, John Stockton, Karl Malone and Elgin Baylor. Even the handful of nine-time All-Stars who haven’t won a title are familiar: Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Dominique Wilkins, George Gervin and Lenny Wilkens.
Members of this fraternity are guaranteed the Hall of Fame, but it is a club that no one seeks membership in, because that means they failed to reach the pinnacle of their profession. It’s what separates Malone from Dirk Nowitzki, Paul from Isiah Thomas, Anthony from Paul Pierce. Bragging rights last forever.
We can debate who in the NBA right now will become a 10-time All-Star, although this seems like a pretty good standard: Of the 42 retired players who earned six All-Star nods by age 28, 25 of them ended their careers. . with double-digit appearances. The vast majority of the others had careers cut short by injuries.
New entrants to the roster of six-time 28-year-old All-Stars will be Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell, a pair of surefire picks whose teams are vying for Eastern Conference supremacy. Tatum won his ring last season. It is certified. And Mitchell has his best chance of winning a title this season.
How good a chance do Mitchell’s Cavaliers have to win it all? Of the previous eight teams to start a season 34-5, as Cleveland has, six won the title. The other two teams had already won a title before.
EQUIPMENT | BEGIN | FINISH | NET RATING |
1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers | 36-3 | 68-13, NBA champions | +7.7 |
1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers | 36-3 | 69-13, NBA champions | +10.5 |
1982-83 Philadelphia 76ers | 34-5 | 65-17, NBA champions | +7.4 |
1991-92 Chicago Bulls | 34-5 | 67-15, NBA champions | +11.0 |
1995-96 Chicago Bulls | 36-3 | 72-10, NBA champions | +13.4 |
1996-97 Chicago Bulls | 34-5 | 69-13, NBA champions | +12.0 |
2005-06 Detroit Pistons | 34-5 | 64-18, conference finals lost | +10.7 |
2015-16 Golden State Warriors | 36-3 | 73-9, lost the NBA Finals | Lost NBA Finals |
2024-25 Cleveland Knights | 34-5 | To be determined | +10.8 |
Cleveland’s net rating is among the best in history and second this season only to the Oklahoma City Thunder, another team with a historic pace. No team that has started as well as the Cavaliers (with a net rating as high as theirs) has failed to reach the NBA Finals. You can’t understate how good they have been.
Do we think the Cavaliers will improve this in the coming seasons? Or is this your time?
While we view Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his Thunder as a superstar and a team on the rise, we don’t think of Cleveland the same way. Mitchell is an established star. He is who he is: great, although he is not someone we consider the traditional anchor of a historic team. Previous players to lead their teams to 34-5 starts included all-time players Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, Julius Erving and Steph Curry.
Of course, we said the same thing about Tatum last season, and he delivered.
Another player led his team to a 34-5 start: Chauncey Billups. Mitchell already has as many All-Star selections as Billups had in his entire career, but their situations aren’t that different. Sure, defense was Detroit’s calling card, and offense is Cleveland’s trademark, but both are smaller-market teams with joint rosters, led by a guard who has peaked as a fringe Player candidate. Most Valuable. Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen against Billups, Richard Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace and Ben Wallace is a war.
The point is: it can be done. Donovan Mitchell absolutely can win the championship.
And how many times are we going to say that in your career?
Mitchell is not a serious MVP candidate, at least not in the eyes of betting houses and voters. He’s sacrificing himself for the good of the team, and his production (his lowest scoring since his rookie season) reflects that. Gone are the days when the best player on the best team was automatically a top MVP candidate. Tatum, for example, finished sixth in MVP voting last season.
Of the 21 teams in history that have won 65 games in a season, 15 won the title, and yet only the Chicago Bulls of the 1990s and the Golden State Warriors of the 2010s won 65 games on multiple occasions. . Which these Cavaliers are not. Tatum’s Celtics, Cleveland’s biggest threat in the East, are learning this now.
Windows are closing quickly in the NBA, especially for players outside the pantheon: players like Mitchell. Mobley’s upcoming contract brings Cleveland closer to the luxury tax next season, and who knows how the chemistry carries over from one season to the next. We weren’t even sure Mitchell wanted to stay in Cleveland just eight months ago. Things change. And fast. Mitchell’s 2021-22 Utah Jazz won at a 56-win clip, lost in the first round of the playoffs, and disbanded at the end of the following season.
We must take advantage of these opportunities when they arise. And this is Mitchell’s moment. I think we can all agree that it’s more Nique than MJ, reaching a playoff ceiling in the second round during his first seven seasons.
And how often know Is this your best chance while it’s happening?
When Iverson was the MVP of the Philadelphia 76ers from 2000-01, at age 25, did he think? This will be the only time I smell an NBA final? Did Barkley, as a 29-year-old MVP in his first season with the Phoenix Suns, think they would never get back to the title series? How could Harden have known, as a 28-year-old MVP, that his 2017-18 Houston Rockets would represent his last best chance at winning a ring? At the moment you think you are invincible. In the moment you never see the end coming. But it comes to all of us, faster in the NBA.
But with Mitchell we can see it as clear as day. In all likelihood, these Cavaliers will never be as good as they are now, and Mitchell may never be as good (or as self-sacrificing) as he is now. The intersection is Mitchell’s moment. His moment to seize his championship, his moment to secure bragging rights over every ringless Hall of Famer who will one day attend Mitchell’s induction in Springfield.
Determination: Made. This is Donovan Mitchell’s moment.