Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ll delve into some of the league’s biggest stories in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more on fact or fiction moving forward.
(Last time on Fact or Fiction: Something is very wrong with the NBA)
Fact or fiction: Phoenix Suns have nowhere to go but up
The Phoenix Suns, the most expensive team in the NBA, who owe $188 million in luxury taxes (as much as the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers combined) They have a record of 15-17. , out of the Western Conference playoff picture.
Is there any hope in the Valley of the Sun?
Phoenix clings to the idea that everything will be okay once everyone is healthy. Only the New Orleans Pelicans have lost more salary due to injuries this season. by Spotrac. The Suns are 8-4 when playing Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal together. Their projected starting lineup is 7-3. This is the reason for his optimism.
Of course, as soon as Booker returned from a sore left groin on New Year’s Eve, Beal left with a hip injury. Beal has not played more than 60 games in a season since 2018-19. He has missed 40% of his games over the past four years and has been unavailable for more than seven consecutive games this season. Durant is 36 years old. He has played more minutes than all but 27 players in NBA history.. Even Booker has missed an average of 19 games over the past three seasons. They have not been able to stay healthy.
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So this year, like last year, we wonder what the life of the suns would be like if they could find their balance. Durant, Booker and Beal finished last season with a 26-15 record, outscoring their opponents by 6.6 points per 100 possessions, enough to reasonably believe they could do some damage in the playoffs together.
Then came the playoffs. Durant, Booker and Beal took the court together and each performed well from an individual offensive standpoint, averaging a combined 71 points on 50/40/89 shooting splits. But as a collective they accumulated only 106.8 points per 100 possessions, equivalent to the worst offense in the league, and were worse on defense (124.7 rating), losing in a first-round sweep to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
That trend continues, as the Suns have been outscored by 4.3 points per 100 possessions in Durant, Booker and Beal’s 197 minutes combined this season. As we approach the midway point of this season, Phoenix owns a sub-.500 record, one game out of the play-in tournament and four games away from a guaranteed playoff spot.
“It’s never easy in this league,” Suns head coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters after Tuesday’s loss, their third in a row and sixth in seven games. via Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic. “We have guys who have won at a high level, who have high expectations, high standards… We have to find ways to get better. These are not easy times, but the guys will find a way to get through it. Together we will find a way to get through it” .
You could hear the pleas in Budenholzer’s voice for them to stay connected or connect or at least avoid fracturing completely. It was the same message that reserve center Mason Plumlee sent before their loss to the Ja Morant-less Memphis Grizzlies: “Victories and losses are whatever they are at the moment.but I really like our team, how we communicate, how we respond. “I feel very good about us going forward.”
There’s what the Suns tell us and what they show us, and what they show us is an average team, even when they’re healthy, and they rarely are. As much movement as Budenholzer has injected into the offense, they are who they were on that side: a top-10 unit that should be better. No amount of movement can alter the fact that your three stars are more redundant than complementary.
And they’re bad on defense, a bottom-10 team, allowing 115 points per 100 possessions. Worse than last season, when their mediocre defense was a factor in head coach Frank Vogel’s firing. There is no path to a championship-caliber defense in Phoenix, not with the three stars the Suns have at the helm, not with Tyus Jones as their starting point guard, not with Jusuf Nurkić as their starting center.
The second platform, in addition to the lack of recruiting resources, makes a move on the margins almost impossible. The Suns, for example, were unable to compete with the Los Angeles Lakers for the services of Dorian Finney-Smith. And what would that have accomplished anyway? As with the Lakers, something better is still the subcontest.
So what do suns do? Pay exorbitant luxury taxes this season and next, and then pay Durant at age 38, when his current contract expires, perpetuating mediocrity for the rest of Booker’s prime? This is an insane strategy, even for the new owner, Mat Ishbia, who apparently doesn’t care about the financial losses.
However, it is the path that the suns follow.
It took the Lakers more than three years to resolve the mistake that was the Russell Westbrook trade. If it takes the same amount of time to unravel the deal for Beal, which was also undoubtedly a mistake, Booker will be 31 on the other side, nearing the end of his current contract.
The idea that the Suns were in the Jimmy Butler sweepstakes, reported by ESPN’s Shams Charania at one pointIt was ridiculous. That or any deal for a star would have required someone to take on the remaining $157 million on Beal’s contract, which isn’t happening, especially not for a package that lifts the Suns into contention. No one will do Phoenix a favor at such a significant cost to themselves.
As new as the facade may seem (Durant, Booker and Beal have played only 53 games together), this is a bust. There is no path to a championship that goes through an aging Durant and an overpaid Beal. The Suns made two big trades and, if given the chance, would almost certainly take two mulligans.
If the Suns want to save Booker’s prime, there’s no choice but to trade Durant — now, not when he’s 37 and his contract expires next season. Maybe I can bring you some parts to speed up the rebuild. Worry about moving Beal when they have the flexibility to do so. I hope it doesn’t take them so long that it also costs them Booker’s faith in the franchise. This is the reality that the most expensive team in the NBA now faces.
By the way, that’s not even a good shot. The interesting thing: If winning a title is the ultimate goal, the Brooklyn Nets, the tanked team that traded Durant to Phoenix in February 2023, are better positioned than the Suns, with their own draft pick (and a chance by Cooper Flagg). , plus a clean cap sheet. That flexibility allows for upward mobility, while the Suns are, well, stagnant except for an exit strategy.
Determination: Fiction. The Suns have one place to go, but up, one place they should go: blow it up.