Fact or Fiction: Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers are in for a painfully long season

Each week during the 2023-24 NBA season, we’ll delve into some of the league’s biggest stories in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more on fact or fiction moving forward.

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Fact or fiction: Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers have a long season

The NBA launched an investigation this week into the absence of former Philadelphia 76ers MVP Joel Embiid to start the season. according to Shams Charania of ESPN. Apparently the league has as many questions as the rest of us about the 7-footer’s continued unavailability, and for good reason.

Embiid missed each of Philadelphia’s six preseason games with what the team called a “left knee injury monitoring.” He tore the meniscus in his left knee for the second time in January, requiring another surgery, sidelining him until April, when he returned to less than 100% for Philadelphia’s playoff run.

He played for Team USA in the Olympics and showed up to training camp on time, touting his weight loss. Maybe we should have paid more attention when Embiid informed us on media day: “Physically, I’m fine. I’m not where I want to be… Until you feel like I’m ready to go, I’ll be there.” “I’m sure they’re going to arrest me.”

Retain him, they did. The Sixers issued a statement before the regular season opener, suggesting that Embiid is “responding well to his individualized plan and is expected to intensify his return-to-play activities this week, including scrimmage.” He is expected to miss at least two more games to start the season.

In other words, nine months after a second surgery on his left knee, six months after his return to the court, three months since he played in Paris and one month into the 2024-25 campaign, Embiid is starting to get back into shape. . This should not only set alarm bells ringing; It’s a five-alarm fire.

Embiid is 7 feet and 280 pounds. Believe it or not, according to Basketball Reference, only four other players in history players that size have made only one All-Star team: Shaquille O’Neal, Yao Ming, Andrew Bynum and Brook Lopez.

Bynum, whose career required multiple surgeries on both knees, retired at age 26. Yao retired five games into his age-30 season, needing a fifth surgery on his left foot. Although López has managed to enjoy a long career, despite three surgeries on his right foot between 2011 and 2014, it was at age 30 that he transitioned to a less-used role for self-preservation, signing for the biannual exception in 2018. .

Only O’Neal maintained his dominance until he was 30 years old. He didn’t have a single major surgery in his 20s. He was coming off three consecutive championships (and Finals MVP) at age 30, leading the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating each season. He would win a fourth title with the Miami Heat at age 33, when injuries began to erode his impact, and he was never the same, playing for four different teams in his final four seasons.

A reminder: The Sixers just gave Embiid a three-year, $192 million contract extension, which will pay him nearly $70 million (one-third of the projected salary cap) at age 34 in the 2028 season. 29.

Philadelphia is banking on Embiid, who turned 30 in March, to become the next Shaq. There were also questions about O’Neal’s conditioning at age 30, but at least we had evidence of what was possible with him at the helm: a dynasty. He didn’t miss a single playoff game when he was 20 years old. Embiid has never finished a season healthy.

We also have ample evidence that Embiid is closer to the end of his career, or at least closer to transitioning to a different phase, than to building a championship team. Take a look at that graph again. Outside of Bynum, who, again, was four years retired At this point in his career, Embiid has recorded the highest usage and lowest availability of anyone his size in his 20s.

And do we expect him to improve when he’s already sidelined to start this season? In addition to resting him for the first week of the 2024-25 campaign, the plan to prepare Embiid for a healthy playoff run is to prevent him from playing in another 15 consecutive games. He will also have “periodic time off during the regular season and routine evaluations by the 76ers’ doctors and medical staff,” Charania reported.

The one thing we learned from Philadelphia’s opening night loss to the Milwaukee Bucks: The Sixers are far from a contender in Embiid’s absence. They looked like a team still trying to figure out who they are when the face of their franchise isn’t on the court, like they haven’t had ample opportunity to prepare. In the end it doesn’t matter, because who they are without Embiid has no relevance to the title race.

So the Sixers will spend the season vacillating between a team featuring their oft-injured 7-foot, 280-pound big man and one led by 24-year-old Tyrese Maxey. The Embiid-less version of the 76ers finished last season with a 16-27 record and was outscored by 12.6 points per 100 possessions.

In what world is this a good plan? It is not; it is simply the only plan available to them. And it’s one that also depends on the health of Paul George, a 34-year-old who joined Embiid on the injured list to start the season.

George’s 74 games last season were an anomaly. He missed 40% of his games in his previous four seasons due to ailments in his right shoulder, left hamstring, right foot, right elbow, right hamstring, right knee, left groin and the left knee. George, who signed a four-year max contract with the Sixers in the offseason, hyperextended his left knee in the preseason and suffered a bone bruise.

Again: Will this get better at age 34 as he opens the season with an injury? He is also likely to miss back-to-back games this season in addition to his absence at the start of the year. Probably The Sixers will have their full complement of stars for three-quarters of the season, preparing one team to compete for a title and another to prevent them from falling in the standings, as they did last season, all in the hopes of starting to work. every other night for the entirety of the playoffs. No team would ever ask for this.

Except the Sixers, who just signed for four more years.

Determination: Made. A long season awaits Joel Embiid and the 76ers.