The North Carolina scandal over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s strange past Internet activity has dominated headlines in what is a critical state in the 2024 election.
The Republican gubernatorial candidate was accused of calling himself a “black Nazi” on a pornographic forum called “Naked Africa.”
He denied the accusations and promised to sue CNN, the first outlet to publish the lurid accusations.
While Robinson has taken a hit in the polls and could struggle in his race for governor, the question that remains is whether his behavior will affect the front-runner, Donald Trump.
Political experts have mixed feelings about whether Robinson’s doubts will hurt the former president, with most saying no.
But one pollster told DailyMail.com that one factor could cause a domino effect in a state where the Republican Party has emerged victorious since 2008.
Mark Robinson’s name will appear on the November ballot in North Carolina no matter what, despite calls for him to end his candidacy after the latest scandal.
If Republicans’ voter turnout is hurt by their lack of enthusiasm to vote in the governor’s race, it could also help swing the state for Democrats in the presidential race.
And pro-Robinson signs are increasingly disappearing from yards across North Carolina.
Republicans are increasingly distancing themselves from their candidate after a CNN report last week alleged that Robinson called himself a “black Nazi” and a “pervert” on the porn forum Nude Africa.
But the party appears deadlocked with him as at this point in the race, Robinson would have to opt out of his bid, and he has said he has no intention of dropping out of the race.
Jason Husser, a political science professor at Elon University who is also the university’s polling director, said the Robinson scandal probably won’t “hurt Trump in terms of convincing people… to suddenly change his ways.” opinion about him.”
“I think, however, that Robinson’s problems don’t help Trump in another way: the governor’s campaigns can help voter turnout. And North Carolina is so divided that turnout is often what can swing an election in one sense or another,” Husser responded.
“When you have an electorate as divided down the middle as North Carolina, if you get 1 extra percentage point because your governor is running on your side, you have a very good ground game to vote on, motivate people and appeal to everyone.” “That the supporters of the local candidates also align themselves with the governor and the presidential candidate, that can make a difference.”
Husser says Robinson’s campaign has “stalled” those hopes for Trump, but that Josh Stein, the Democrat running in the state’s gubernatorial race, is “doing fine.”
At least 10 Republican individuals and groups have canceled events with Robinson so far, and several local politicians and lawmakers have removed images with the candidate from their social media.
Some voters are showing how disenfranchised they feel with Robinson by removing signs from their yards.
‘It’s been about 50/50 the question of whether the Robinson signs are still in yards. Some people leave and some people pick them up,” Husser said of the right-wing community where he lives.
The CNN report revealing a series of lewd, racist and generally lewd comments made by Robinson is prompting calls for him to drop out of school.
There was a small window after the report came out in which Robinson could have suspended his candidacy and the NCGOP could have filed a lawsuit to prevent ballots with his name from going out.
Now, no matter what, Robinson’s name will appear on the ballots, as they have already been sent to overseas and out-of-town voters.
Husser explained that there is still a way for the Republican Party in North Carolina to field a different candidate, but it would be a long shot.
Robinson would need to voluntarily end his run for the Governor’s Mansion, which is already highly unlikely.
The party would then need to select a new candidate to replace him.
That’s when the work begins. Husser detailed. The NCGOP would need to spend a lot of money informing voters that even if they voted for Robinson in November, that would actually mean their vote would go to whichever candidate was selected to replace him.
Husser recently published a survey Taken pre-porn scandal that put Vice President Kamala Harris 1 percentage point ahead of Trump in North Carolina: 46 percent to 45 percent.
The results represent a statistically insignificant split and are within the Elon University poll’s 3.75 percentage point margin of error.
North Carolina, which has 16 Electoral College votes, turned red in 2016 and 2020 for Trump.
In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 3.6 percent. The gap narrowed against Joe Biden in 2020, when the former president won by 1.3 percent.