EXIT POLLS: BJP party looks to ‘keep Gujurat bastion’, as PM Modi’s party predicted to triumph in the state of the heart it has controlled since 1995
- A study predicts that the BJP will get between 99 and 113 seats in the 182-seat Gujarat meeting
- PM Narendra Modi is a local boy in the Gujurat area and is seen to spark local pride
- BJP predicted to cross the finish line due to its strong performance in its traditional strongholds
- Axis-My-India exit poll also shows big gains for Congress in the 54 seats of Saurashtra and Kutch and also in the 32 seats of Northern Gujarat
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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been able to fend off an attack by Congress and is all set to keep its bastion Gujarat, according to the results of the India Today-Axis-My-India exit poll.
The saffron party also seems to want power of Congress in Himachal Pradesh to struggle with a mountain state landslide that follows a uniform pattern of sitting incumbent drivers every five years, the exit poll showed.
The study predicts that the BJP will secure between 99 and 113 seats in the 182-seat Gujarat meeting.
BJP National President Amit Shah and his wife flash victory signs after they cast their votes
The Congress alliance is expected to have between 68 and 82 seats. The BJP’s voting share is expected to drop 1 percent from 48 percent in 2012 to 47 percent in 2017, while Congress is expected to get 42 percent of the vote, which is 3 percent more than the party’s voting share in the latter elections.
The Axis-My-India exit poll shows big gains for Congress in the 54 seats of Saurashtra and Kutch and also the 32 seats of Northern Gujarat, but the BJP crosses the finish line due to its strong performance in its traditional strongholds of South – and Central Gujarat and also in the 21 seats of Ahmedabad district.
The regional data from the exit poll explains why both experts and netas picked up mixed signals during the Gujarat campaign.
While the Leva and Kadva Patels, Thakors, Kolis and Dalits voted in large numbers for the Congress in Saurashtra and Kutch and also in Northern Gujarat, the Congress could not find favor with these communities in Central and South Gujarat and in the 21 seats of Ahmedabad district.
The exit poll suggests that Congress would have done better in South and Central Gujarat if it had been able to form alliances with Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh three to four months before the election.
For the BJP, which has been in power in Gujarat since 1995, the 2017 election was a bloody battle in which anti-incumbency was a major factor.
However, the pride that comes with having a Gujarati PM and a formidable election machine led by BJP chief Amit Shah would have helped the BJP cross the finish line.
What the exit poll shows is that GST and demonetization did not damage the prospects of the BJP in urban areas.
The party is expected to pack as many as 42 out of the 55 seats of urban Gujarat and Congress just 13 seats in the city. The elections were exciting in the 127 rural seats of Gujarat.
Here the BJP picked up 64, while Congress picked up 62. The caste-like figures of the Gujarat exit poll throw up interesting insights into the mind of the Gujarati voter. Of the 12 seats of Gujarat dominated by Leva Patel, Congress is in the lead at 8, while the BJP is at 4.
Prime Minister Modi tasted victory in Gujurat because the BJP retained power in the area. The party has been in power in the state since 1995
Congress leads in three of the four Kadva Patel-dominated seats in the state. This shows that the Hardik Patel factor has damaged the prospects of the BJP on the Patidar-dominated seats of the state previously considered BJP strongholds.
The other interesting insight is that the agitation of Patidar and Thakor only had an impact in Northern Gujarat where Hardik and Alpesh come from. In South and Central both the Patidars and the Thakor in large numbers sided with the BJP.
Voters have shown that although Rahul Gandhi may have improved his game, he still has a long way to go before he can catch up with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Rahul Ghandi was made Monday afternoon by the central election authority (CEA), head Mullappally Ramachandran, head of the congress party against a backdrop of fireworks and outdoor cheers
The poll has a sample size of 40,267 respondents, ages 18-61 plus. Personal interviews were conducted in 182 Assembly constituencies by 60 dedicated surveyors.
The poll in Himachal, based on direct interviews with a cross-section of 14,222 voters in all 68 constituencies, predicted 47 to 55 seats for the saffron party, versus 26 in the outgoing meeting.
The congress forecast is expected to drop between 13 and 20 from the current 36, the forecast showed.