There are many unknowns for the knockout rounds ahead of the final day of the group stage on Wednesday at Euro 2024.
The tournament features 24 teams in six groups of four and 16 teams advance to the knockout rounds. The top two teams from each group automatically qualify and the last four places are reserved for the four best third places from all groups.
We know that the Netherlands will surely advance to the round of 16 despite the 3-2 loss to Austria on Tuesday. The results of the Group C matches (two disappointing 0-0 draws) ensured that Denmark and Slovenia finished with three points each. The Dutch earned four points in Group D and have the most points of any third-place team with two groups left to play.
The third-placed team in Group E also has a great chance of advancing. Romania, Belgium, Slovakia and Ukraine each have three points from the first two rounds of games. Belgium plays Ukraine and Slovakia plays Romania on Wednesday.
In Group F, Portugal already won the group with two wins in two games. Türkiye is in second place with three points, while Czechia and Georgia have one point each. Portugal plays Czechia and Türkiye plays Georgia on Wednesday afternoon.
Germany won Group A with seven points and Switzerland finished second with five points. In Group B, Spain earned all nine points, while Italy took second place in the group thanks to a last-gasp goal to draw against Croatia on Monday afternoon. Italy will play Switzerland in the round of 16.
Despite a drab draw with Slovenia on Tuesday, England won Group C with five points and will also play a third-place team, while Denmark and Slovenia tied with three points, an equal goal difference, two goals allowed and two goals scored.
Denmark advanced as the second team thanks to one yellow card less in the three games than Slovenia. But Slovenia’s neutral goal difference means they are in a good position to advance.
How matchups against third-place teams are determined
This is how the four third-place teams that have played the three group stage games before Wednesday are classified.
1. Netherlands, 4 points
2. Slovenia, 3 points (0 goal difference)
3. Hungary, 3 points (-3)
4. Croatia, 2 points (-3)
Croatia will not advance as all teams in Group E already have three points. Both Romania and Belgium have a goal difference of +1 in that group, Slovakia’s goal difference is 0 and Ukraine is -2.
Before the tournament, UEFA ranked the four teams in third place through a predetermined order. As Croatia has already been eliminated, there are five different combinations still alive awaiting the results of Wednesday’s matches. If Hungary advances, they will play Portugal. Meanwhile, the Netherlands could face England or the winner of Group E, depending on how Wednesday unfolds.
In Group F, Türkiye is at -1 goal difference with three points, while Czechia is at -1 with 1 point and Georgia is at -2 with 1 point. Thanks to the draws in Group C, Türkiye will qualify for the knockout rounds with a win, a draw or a one-goal loss against Georgia. Both Czechia and Georgia need to win their matches to qualify in second or third place.
Simply put, we won’t know the combination of the four third-place teams that will advance to the knockout rounds until all pool play is completed on Wednesday. And the four first-place teams that will face the third-place teams also won’t know their opponents until Group F play concludes.