In the last Essential bearing, support for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to parliament increased slightly to 60-40, from 59-41 in March. But hard “no” supporters had risen by 2% to 26%, soft “no” supporters had fallen by 3% to 14%, while soft “yes” remained at 27%.
When asked about opposition leader Peter Dutton and the Liberals’ decision to oppose the Voice, 52% said they were playing politics, while 48% said they were genuinely concerned.
On voting intentions, federal Labor held a 52-43 two-party lead, including undecided (just under 53-42 last two weeks). This poll was conducted from April 12 to 16 among a sample of 1,136 people.
Primary votes were 34% Labor (up one), 31% Coalition (up one), 14% Greens (fixed), 6% One Nation (fixed), 3% United Australia Party (up one), 9% for all others ( one down), and 4% undecided (one down).
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings fell slightly to 51-36 approval, from 52-35 last two weeks. For the first time, Essential included an approval question on Dutton, finding him with 44% disapproval, 36% approval.
In terms of social media use, 57% of those surveyed used Facebook at least once a day, followed by YouTube at 38% and Instagram at 35%. Only 14% used Twitter once a day. Between the ages of 53 and 25, respondents felt that their right to privacy was not sufficiently protected by law.
Read more: Why can’t we just legislate the Voice to Parliament? A state law expert explains
Solve Poll: Vote Support at 58-42
voters supported the Voice by 58-42 when asked to choose “yes” or “no” with no option for undecided, as part of a nine-newspaper Resolve poll conducted April 12-16 of a sample of 1,600 people. Support was up one point from 57-43 in March.
In combined March and April surveys, a majority was in favor in every state, as well as nationally.
Initial preferences were 46% “yes” (stable since March), 31% “no” (down one), and 22% undecided (stable).
In a question about turnout in a referendum, 81% said they would probably vote, 10% unlikely and 9% doubted.
Morgan poll: 56-44 for Labour
a Morgan poll, held 10-16 April, gave Labor a 56-44 lead. This was unchanged from the previous week, but a gain of 1.5 points for Labor since the last two weeks. The primary vote was 37% Labour, 33% Coalition, 12% Greens and 18% for all others.
Newspoll Voice survey over three months
The Bearing Bludger reported on April 5 that aggregated data from three Newspoll polls on the Voice to Parliament, conducted between February and April, gave “yes” to the Voice with an overall lead of 54-38.
State breakdowns had “yes” leading 55-36 in New South Wales, 56-35 in Victoria, 49-43 in Queensland, 51-41 in Western Australia, 60-33 in South Australia and 55-39 in Tasmania . The number of respondents by state ranged from 334 in Tasmania to 1,414 in NSW.
A “yes” vote in a referendum requires majority support in at least four of the six states, as well as national majority support.
Newspoll has also released its voting intentions Demographic data from February to April. The Poll Bludger reported on Saturday that Labor led 55-45 overall, Victoria 58-42, SA 56-44 and NSW and WA 55-45. In Queensland there was a 50-50 tie.
Queensland remains the most pro-coalition state after being the only state to vote for the coalition in the last election (by a margin of 54-46).
Animal Justice now stands a good chance of winning the final NSW seat in the upper house
NSW’s upper house has 42 members, 21 of which are up for election every four years, so the members serve eight-year terms. All 21 are elected by statewide proportional representation with optional affiliations. An election quota is 1/22 of the vote or 4.5%.
With the NSW upper house check the number completed for the March 25 election, Labor won 8.05 quota, the Coalition 6.55, the Greens 2.00, One Nation 1.30, Legalize Cannabis 0.81, the Liberal Democrats 0.78, the Shooters 0.69, Animal Justice 0.48 and Elizabeth Farrelly 0.29.
Both major parties fell short of their projected totals on the first count, with the Coalition expected to win 6.60 quotas and Labor 8.10. As a result, Animal Justice only needs to close a quota gap of 0.07 in terms of preferences, instead of the expected 0.12 – see analyst by Kevin Bonham commentary.
While the final seat is clearly a contest between the coalition’s seventh candidate and Animal Justice, a few parties will take votes that would otherwise reach either the coalition or Animal Justice. This includes Legalize Cannabis, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers and Liberal Democrats as they are all well below the full quota.
So the coalition will compete with two other right-wing parties, while Animal Justice will compete with Legalize Cannabis for left-wing preferences.
Bonham doesn’t think there’s a clear favorite between the Coalition and Animal Justice. However, Animal Justice won from just short of primary votes in both the 2015 And 2019
elections.
The push of the “button” to distribute preferences electronically is scheduled for Wednesday at 11 a.m. An Animal Justice win would give the left an overall 22-20 majority in the upper house, while a Coalition victory would bring it to 21-21.
The Liberals won in the lower house Ryde tells by 54 votes on Saturday, a marginal difference from the original Liberal margin of 50 votes. This confirms the lower house result of 45 Labor out of 93 seats, 36 Coalition, three Greens and nine Independents, with Labor two seats short of the 47 needed for a majority.
