& # 39; Are you going to & # 39; r & # 39; use word? & # 39; Expert K David admits that a toxic mix of falling house prices and mining decline could soon see Australia in RECESSION
- US investment bank JP Morgan proposes four interest rate cuts in Australia
- Chief economist Sally Auld said the cash flow could fall to a new record of 0.5%
- Bell Direct stock analyst Julia Lee warned Australia in danger of a recession
- Housing, mining delays could shrink the economy for the first time since 1991
Interest in Australia is expected to fall by a third to a new low in the coming year, as the fear of a recession increases.
US investment bank JP Morgan now predicts four interest rate cuts by mid-2020, which means the cash rate would be just 0.5 percent, now less than 1.5 percent.
Australia's leading economist, Sally Auld, predicted that the Reserve Bank would lower interest rates twice at Christmas and twice more in the first half of next year.
Bell Direct analyst Julia Lee said that Australia was in danger of falling into recession for the first time since 1991, when house prices continued to fall and uncertainty in China and the United States affected global commodity prices.
& # 39; If the housing market continues to slow down and … when we begin to see mining coming back, I think we are on our way to a recession & # 39 ;, she told The Seven Network's Sunrise program on Thursday morning.
Sunrise host David Koch had to send Lee twice to admit that Australia was almost in recession.
& # 39; Come on, Julia, are you going to & # 39; r & # 39; use word? Are we on our way to a recession?, He asked.
While JPMorgan predicts four interest rate cuts, each with a quarter of a percentage point, Bell Direct predicts a great deal of relaxation, which would bring the cash rate to one percent.
& # 39; Here, inland, we are definitely slowing down and the numbers show that, & # 39; Lee said.
& # 39; Two interest rate cuts deserve what happens in terms of the domestic economy. & # 39;
JPMorgan economists Ms Auld, Ben Jarman and Tom Kennedy said that the surprise of Prime Minister Scott Morrison's election victory would not be enough to avert an economic slowdown, even though a coalition profit had improved confidence in homes and businesses.
Bell Direct Equities analyst Julia Lee (right) said that for the first time since 1991, Australia was in danger of falling into recession. Sunrise host David Koch (left) had to push her twice
& # 39; There is also the possibility that some economic data may become more positive in view of the election results and recent policy decisions, & # 39; they said in an economic note from Wednesday.
& # 39; But we would be inclined to blur any recovery of home data, given that income decline restrictions are a more binding restriction on credit growth and the housing market than currently on the usability test of interest rates. & # 39 ;
Labor lost this month's election, despite opinion polls and market predictions of victory, after campaigning to remove negative overruns on existing properties from January 2020.
Since the peak in July 2017, the median house price of Sydney has fallen by a record 16 percent, CoreLogic data for April showed.
Since August 2016, interest rates have been at a historic low of 1.5 percent.
Inflation rose by only 1.3 percent in the year to April, well below the target of two to three percent of the Reserve Bank.
Economic growth during the December quarter was a weak 0.2 percent.
Mrs. Lee said the slowdown in the Australian housing market contributed to the recession risk, as the US investment bank JPMorgan predicted four interest rate cuts by mid-2020 (pictured is Cecil Hills in Sydney)
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