California could be months away from a major magnitude 6 earthquake, which would be one of the largest seismic events in two decades.
A new study has found that earthquakes occur every 22 years on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault in central California, which runs through Eureka and ends just after Palm Springs.
The most recent earthquake along this stretch of the fault was a magnitude 6 in 2004, following an earlier one One of magnitude 6.7 in 1983, one of 6.0 in 1966 and one of magnitude 6.5 in 1934.
Parkfield is suspected to be nearing the end of its quiet period and an earthquake could hit the fault this year, according to lead researcher Luca Malagnini.
Scientists have long been monitoring the San Andreas fault line that is predicted to be the source of the ‘Big One.’
Researchers determined that earthquakes occur every 22 years on the Parkfield section of the fault in central California, with the last one occurring in 2004.
The San Andreas Fault, seen here on the Carrizo Plain in Southern California, runs hundreds of miles across the state and is the site of relatively frequent earthquakes.
Experts believe that a large earthquake, generally defined as 7.0 and above, could kill at least 1,800 people, injure 50,000 and cause more than $200 billion in damage.
On September 28, 2004, an earthquake shook the area with its epicenter in the city of Parkfield, where only 37 people lived at the time.
The earthquake was felt within a 350-mile radius, from Orange County to Sacramento.
Scientists also recorded 150 aftershocks after the seismic event.
Malagnini, research director at Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, said Living science who believes an earthquake will occur this year, but may not reach the 2004 epicenter.
Although the earthquake window is approaching quickly, scientists say the area is not making much seismic noise.
The team set out to discover a possible pattern with the Parkfield earthquakes.
They analyzed measurements of the fault up to six weeks before each seismic event, discovering there There was a different type of sign that seemed to indicate cracks in the rocks opening and closing in the tense area.
Using nearly 23 years of seismic measurements from the area, they determined that a “preparatory phase,” which includes cracks opening and closing beneath the Earth’s surface, signals an upcoming earthquake.
When this happens, sound waves travel differently through the ground.
Their measurements are of something called “seismic wave attenuation,” a scientific term that describes how sound waves travel through rock. Waves naturally lose energy as they travel through rock, a process called attenuation.
Earthquakes are high-energy waves, but on a fault there can be small waves that occur even when there is no earthquake.
Scientists have long been monitoring the San Andreas fault line that is predicted for the ‘Big One.’ The photo shows what Los Angeles would look like if a magnitude 6 earthquake occurred
If a major rapid occurred, experts have predicted that about 1,800 people would die, 50,000 would be injured and more than 60 buildings would collapse, causing at least $200 billion in damage. The photo shows what the AI predicts Sacramento would look like after the Big One.
And it is these waves that scientists measured. What they found was that certain types of waves lost energy more quickly in the six weeks before the 2004 earthquake, while others lost energy more slowly.
High-frequency waves attenuated (or lost energy) more slowly, while low-frequency waves attenuated more rapidly as the earthquake approached.
The fact that there aren’t many volcanoes in the area helps, the researchers wrote.
Because there are no volcanoes nearby, they can be more confident that the waves they are measuring are actually coming from the stress built up on the fault.
And fortunately, there is currently no evidence that ‘God is sending America strong signals to tell us to repent,’ as US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene recently claimed when an earthquake struck near Donald Trump’s Bedminster golf course in New Jersey.
The East and West Coast earthquakes are not scientifically related, although it is impossible to completely rule out whether they are religiously related.
A new study determined that earthquakes occur every 22 years on the Parkfield section of the fault in central California, which runs through Eureka and ends just after Palm Springs.
Earthquakes occur when sections of the Earth’s plates move against each other. This is usually the result of stress built up from pressing the plates together.
So if the stress on a plate has recently been relieved elsewhere, it won’t cause an earthquake in the Parkfield section so soon.
With all of these dynamic processes happening at the same time, it is difficult to predict when and where the next earthquake will occur, and researchers do not claim that they can do so.
But they are optimistic that these types of measurements could one day lead to earthquake prediction systems.
He study was published in the magazine Frontiers in Earth Sciences.