A month after the only poll that matters, former President Donald Trump has regained a substantial lead in our electoral model.
A series of recent polls show him with leads in key battleground states. And when the data is run through our DailyMail.com/JL Partners model, it shows that the former president won in 56.7 percent of the simulations.
As always, the path to the White House seems to pass through Pennsylvania, with its 19 votes in the electoral college.
For weeks it has been in “confusion” territory. Now the model moves him to ‘lean toward Trump’ in what could be a decisive moment in the electoral race.
If she loses that state, Vice President Kamala Harris would have a hard time succeeding even if she wins Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
With fewer paths to victory in the electoral college, Harris wins in only 43.2 percent of simulations.
It means that overall Trump is up to a 13-point lead from just five points earlier in the week.
To be clear, this is not like a survey advantage. Instead, it shows how often Trump wins the electoral college when our model analyzes the thousands of possible permutations of states using the latest available data (along with decades of election results combined with economic data).
Until now, its highest point was a 10-point lead last month, but that number has risen and fallen with new data.
And the race remains incredibly close.
Harris is on track to win the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight elections).
Minnesota appears safer than ever for her, consolidating her foothold in the electoral college, and she is two points stronger in Michigan, where both she and Trump campaigned on Thursday.
But the result of the latest model shows a clear direction forward, said Callum Hunter, data scientist at JL Partners.
Former President Donald Trump has focused on the Midwest over the past week. On Thursday he was in Michigan and after a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday he will be in Wisconsin.
“After a brief lull over the past week, Trump’s dominance appears to have returned, although this may simply be due to the cyclical nature of the polls,” Hunter said in his most recent assessment.
‘That said, there has been a steady increase, since Trump’s drop in probability on September 24, of his probability of winning the electoral college.
‘It’s a sign of waning support for Harris after her stellar two months as heir presumptive and new candidate.
“It appears that, at least according to our model, Trump has slightly solidified his coalition and is on track to win in about three out of five simulations.”
He added that the worst news for Harris was seeing Pennsylvania tilt toward “leaning toward Trump.”
“This could all change with the polls next week, but the current situation looks bleak for Harris: We’re at the place where a small move can make a big difference,” he said.
Vice President Kamala Harris was also in Michigan on Thursday.
JL Partners runs its model twice a week, using the most recent data.
Some days it shows little change. Other times, like today, it shows one side or the other making a movement.
Another imponderable that the model must calculate is the impact of Hurricane Helene. Last week it devastated the southeast.
It caused more damage in Republican-voting areas of North Carolina than in other parts of the state, for example, so any impact on turnout could have a disproportionate impact on the Trump campaign.
At the same time, criticism of the federal emergency response could mean bad news for Vice President Harris.