A prognosticator with a forty-year track record of correctly predicting the winner of every presidential election believes Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to win the presidential race in November.
Professor Allen Lichtman of American University has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since President Reagan’s re-election in 1984.
Lichtman updated his tracker to reflect President Biden dropped out of the race and Vice President Harris secured the delegates needed last week to become the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.
Based on his model, which includes thirteen factors, or keys, as he calls them, the vice president is currently on track for victory this fall with less than 100 days until the election.
Professor Allen Lichtman believes Kamala Harris is on track to win the November election against Donald Trump despite the shakeup at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket
Lichtman’s model measures factors against the party currently in the White House, which is currently the Democrats.
He said he will make his official election prediction next month, but Harris has most of her keys leaning in her favor to win.
Factors giving Harris the edge include the fact that she did not face a primary challenger, there has been little threat from third-party candidates so far and the economy is strong in the short and long term.
With the switch to Harris, the White House has not made a major policy shift, the vice president is not facing a scandal or major social unrest, and she has a rather uncharismatic rival.
Lichtman noted that with Biden’s transition to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, Democrats have lost one advantage: the incumbency factor.
Professor Allen Lichtman has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984
Now that Harris and Trump are facing each other, the professor believes the race is virtually wide open.
But he noted that Democrats were able to avoid further fallout with their shakeup, as the party overwhelmingly united behind Harris rather than launching a chaotic open primary or having other presidential hopefuls jump into the race at this late stage.
“I haven’t made a final prediction. I said I’ll make that after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman told C-SPAN.
“But I’ve said for months and continue to say that a lot of things would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose,” he added. “That could happen, but a lot of things would have to change.”
President Biden speaking on July 29, 2024. Professor Lichtman said the president’s withdrawal from the race on July 21 has not fundamentally changed his outlook for who will win the November election so far.
Lichtman also said the new energy injected into Harris’ campaign could have a positive effect on several key issues for her, including fewer people voting for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and potentially further curbing social unrest.
“The result is a mixed bag, Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s presumptive nomination,” he said. “But that doesn’t fundamentally change my assessment that a lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose.”
Lichtman’s prediction comes as polls show the presidential race remains extremely close, with Harris leading the pack.
An average of recent polls shows Trump leading by less than two points, according to Real Clear Politics.
As far as polls in key states are concerned, there is also a tight race between Trump and Harris now that Biden is no longer on the Democratic ticket.
But recent polls show there has been a surge in enthusiasm among Democrats, as Lichtman noted. Harris’s approval rating since she became the presumptive presidential candidate has also risen in recent days.
