A shocking new poll finds that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in two key states that will decide the race for the White House.
With just seven weeks until Election Day, Harris leads Trump by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent, in Michigan, and by two in Wisconsin, 49 percent to 47 percent, according to a study. New York Times/Siena College survey.
The poll shows a slight drop in support for Harris as her push to replace President Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket has apparently diminished.
In particular, the vice president’s perceived economic weakness compared to Trump was cited as a driving factor in her decline and could affect elections that lean Democratic but show support for Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris has a slim lead in Wisconsin and Michigan with seven weeks until Election Day, according to a new poll.
Voters perceive Trump as stronger than Harris on the economy, but he is losing support on the politically vulnerable issue of abortion.
Notably, the poll found that Harris and Trump’s support levels were within the margin of error, essentially putting them in a tie in Michigan and Wisconsin, which combined offer 25 electoral college votes.
Wisconsin has been decided by less than one point in four of the last six elections, while Joe Biden won Michigan by just three points in 2020.
The two states are among the few that will decide the election, with Harris consistently leading in national polls but trailing by the electoral college.
While Ohio is not considered a battleground state, the survey also focused on the state’s voters to show how the presidential race is impacting elections at the ballot box as it hosts one of the most competitive Senate battles in November.
It found that incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has a four-point lead over his Republican opponent Bernie Moreno, even though Harris lost to Trump by six points.
The result shows a worrying divide among voters who are open to supporting Democratic candidates but have not leaned toward Harris in the presidential race.
Wisconsin voter Antonio Dawkins, 40, told the New York Times that he was among those who planned to vote in the state election but were unconvinced in the presidential race, and said he might leave the presidential line blank.
“She’s adopting the car salesman narrative and trying to sell everyone that she’s not Trump, and that’s not enough,” Dawkins said.
‘He says a lot of things that sound good without details. I guess that’s what they call it: no meat and potatoes.
When asked about the candidates’ political platforms, voters leaned toward Trump by five points, 46 to 41, on which policies were most likely to help them personally.
However, when asked which candidate they trusted most to “help people like you,” voters gave Harris a slight lead, showing a chasm between the candidates’ perceived personalities and their platforms.
In Wisconsin, 55 percent of “undecided” voters cited Trump’s demeanor, temperament and honesty in office as their top concern for potentially supporting the former president, and in Michigan that number stood at 47 percent.
Voters also said the economy was the most important issue to them heading into the election, while abortion came in second, an issue Trump considers politically vulnerable.
Harris, seen on a visit to the southern border this week, was seen as more trustworthy on the economy among voters in the poll, but lost support when it came to specific policies.
Abortion appears to be growing in Americans’ consciousness with seven weeks left until the polls open, with 18 percent saying it was their central reason for voting, compared to 13 percent when the same pollster asked in May .
On abortion, voters in Michigan supported Harris over Trump by 20 points and in Wisconsin by 13 points.
As poll after poll shows the presidential race will be exciting, forecasters have warned there’s a chance a single congressional district in Nebraska could be decisive.
In an unlikely but statistically possible scenario, Harris and Trump could struggle to reach the 270 electoral college votes needed to win, and Nebraska’s slightly different system for awarding their votes could make the difference.
Nebraska is one of only two states, along with Maine, that allocates electoral votes by congressional district, while all others have a winner-take-all system.
Under Nebraska’s current system, Donald Trump is almost certain to win four of the state’s five electoral college votes, while the Democratic-leaning Omaha district could offer Kamala Harris a single electoral college vote.
Most undecided voters in Wisconsin cited Trump’s demeanor, temperament and honesty in office as their top concern in potentially supporting the former president.
In the New York Times/Siena College poll, Harris had a strong nine percent lead in that district, while Trump is expected to easily win the state race.
This same result occurred in the 2020 election, where Joe Biden won one electoral college vote despite losing the state by more than 19 points.
For a presidential candidate to win the presidency according to the electoral college, they must obtain at least 270 votes.
If neither party does so, the fate of the nation rests in the hands of the House of Representatives, which awards votes based on the support of each state delegation rather than the total number of congressmen who vote.
This would almost certainly give Trump a second term in the White House, as Republicans control more House delegations.
That is, Omaha’s prominent electoral college vote could take on national importance if Harris wins the ‘Blue Wall’ (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) but loses the other swing states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
In that case, the only electoral college vote would be the difference between a 269-269 tie and a 270-268 Harris victory.
