As Robert F. Kennedy Jr. prepares to reveal his running mate on Tuesday, there’s still a big question about which candidate he hurts more: Democratic President Joe Biden or former Republican President Donald Trump.
Some recent national polls show that he is apparently being a liability for Biden.
The Harvard-Harris Poll that was released Sunday shows Trump with a two-point lead over Biden when it comes to a two-person race. That lead expands to four points (43 percent to 39 percent) when Kennedy is taken into account.
But Ipsos polls from earlier this month shows Kennedy pulling voters away from Trump and Biden almost evenly, and in the long run, the independent could help the current president’s re-election bid.
“He helps Biden more than Trump,” Ipsos president Cliff Young told DailyMail.com. “What we’re really seeing is that disaffected suburban moderate Republican who really didn’t like Dobbs, probably doesn’t like Donald Trump’s record with women, who doesn’t know where to go,” Young said of the typical Kennedy supporter. .
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will announce his running mate Tuesday from Oakland, California. While some polls show him holding a drag on President Joe Biden, voter demographics suggest he could further hurt former President Donald Trump.
The March 7-13 Ipsos poll, conducted immediately after the Republican primaries concluded, found that Trump was receiving 32 percent to Biden’s 31 percent, while 16 percent of Americans surveyed supported RFK Jr.
RFK Jr.’s base tends to be female, attracting slightly more Republicans than Democrats and more independents compared to the demographics of all Americans.
Dobbs was the landmark Supreme Court case that overturned Roe v. Wade, which granted women a constitutional right to abortion with limits.
‘He represents the dissatisfied vote. I think it’s less about him. And more about the moment. “There are basically two primary party candidates that are not that interesting to people,” Young also said.
Kennedy voters lean toward women, and Young said “there’s probably an overlap there” with Republicans who supported Trump’s rival, the former ambassador. Nikki Haley, in the Republican primaries.
Haley retired on March 6 after losing to Trump in all but one state on Super Tuesday.
The March Ipsos poll, which was conducted from March 7 to 13, marking the beginning of the general election, shows that Trump received 32 percent of the vote nationally, Biden received 31 percent and Kennedy received 16 percent. percent.
Young said early in Kennedy’s candidacy that his base was “a little more fringe.”
“But really what we’re seeing now – the fact that he’s getting like 16, 15, 17 – somewhere around there – percent of the vote when we ask the question, really represents a broader critique about today’s options.” Young said.
The independent candidate’s base also represents Americans casting protest votes. When Kennedy supporters had to choose between Trump and Biden, more than 70 percent said they were doing so to vote against the other major party candidate.
Kennedy voters tend to be more in line with Democrats on issues such as climate change and abortion, although they lean toward Republicans on immigration. In general, Kennedy voters, Democrats and Republicans care greatly about the economy.
When Kennedy supporters were forced to choose Trump or Biden, a much higher percentage than average said they were voting against one of the major party’s candidates.
Seventy-three percent of Kennedy supporters who said they would back Biden said they were doing so to vote against Trump, while 71 percent said their reluctant vote for Trump was actually a vote against Biden.
Among all Americans, 57 percent said they would vote for Biden because they didn’t like Trump and 47 percent said they would vote for Trump because they didn’t like Biden.
“What we’re saying is that the anti-vote among RFK voters is even stronger against Trump and the same for Biden,” Young explained. “What they are doing is rejecting both candidates.”
Kennedy voters tend to lean more Democratic on issues such as whether the government should help combat climate change and protect abortion rights, although they lean more Republican on immigration.
When asked if immigration made life more difficult for native-born Americans, 66 percent of Kennedy supporters agreed.
That compares with 81 percent of Republicans who thought this way and just 41 percent of Democrats.
Kennedy voters are voting more against President Joe Biden (left) and former President Donald Trump (right) than they are voting for Kennedy, Ipsos president Cliff Young told DailyMail.com.
While Biden and Trump improve their numbers when the group is narrowed to registered likely voters, Kennedy actually loses support, suggesting that his supporters are not always fully engaged in the political process.
Young also warned that support for RFK Jr. could decline as the November general election approaches.
Traditionally, Americans adopt “strategic voting,” meaning they will hold their nose and vote for the major party candidate they consider less objectionable than selecting a third-party candidate.
‘I think we’re a little over the top here. “In terms of what would actually happen, I think these numbers will be lower,” Young said.
Ipsos polls also showed that Kennedy’s support fell from 16 percent to 12 percent when the sample of likely voters was recorded.
Young also said that historically a vice presidential election doesn’t move the needle.
“People don’t change their calculations, it’s usually the first thing,” Young said.