Doctors who give advanced breast cancer patients an average survival time & # 039; was wrong 80% of the time & # 039;

Doctors who give patients with incurable breast cancer a survival prediction are wrong almost 80 percent of the time, research shows.

Leading GPs ask patients to get the best and worst time frames to paint a more accurate picture of their future.

The majority of patients with a fatal diagnosis want to know how long they are still alive, according to Dr. Belinda Kiely, an oncologist at the University of Sydney.

This is usually the case so that they know whether they should stop working or sell their house, or whether they can attend a loved one's wedding, she claims.

But the doctor said that the average life expectancy they get is only 20 to 30 percent of the time.

Doctors in the UK and US, similar to Australia, use their experience to predict how long patients will survive. There is not one fixed model.

They take into account the age of the patient, the physical condition and how aggressive their cancer is before referring to it with average survival times and adjustments.

The problem with the average survival times is that there is a 50 percent chance that the patient will survive, according to Dr. Kiely.

At the Fifth International Consensus Conference on Advanced Breast Cancer in Lisbon, she said: & Every week I meet women of all ages with advanced breast cancer in my clinic.

& # 39; They often ask: & # 39; How long do I still have? & # 39; They have very practical concerns and ask what they want help with.

& # 39; For example, they want to know if they need to cancel a planned vacation, whether they can attend their daughter's wedding, or whether they should stop working or sell their house.

& # 39; Oncologists are sometimes not sure how they can help. They may be worried … whether it is possible to provide accurate information and how best to talk about it without destroying hope. & # 39;

Dr. Kiely's research has shown that it is better to provide estimates for the best-case, worst-case and typical survival times. She said this was more accurate and useful for patients.

It involves physicians estimating the expected survival time for a patient, dividing it by four to get the worst-case scenario and multiplying it by three to get the best case outcome.

The typical life expectancy for advanced breast cancer patients is between half and twice the doctor's estimate.

Dr. Kiely told the conference: & # 39; If we tell a patient that her estimated median survival time is six months, that gives no hope of a possibly longer survival, although she has a 50 percent chance of living longer.

& # 39; On the other hand, providing three & # 39; s scenarios helps patients to prepare for the possible worst case and at the same time hope for the possible best case.

& # 39; This is more useful for patients who make plans and decisions for the future. & # 39;

Dr. Kiely and her colleagues conducted a trial with 33 oncologists who spoke to 146 patients with advanced cancer about their expected survival times.

Each patient received a printed one-page summary of their individual best-case, typical and worst-case scenarios.

Ninety-one percent of patients said they found the printed information useful, 88 percent said it helped them make plans, and 88 percent said it improved their understanding.

Seventy-seven percent of patients said the scenarios were the same or better than they had expected.

Based on their findings, Dr. Kiely and her colleagues now promote the & # 39; three-scenario & # 39; approach by oncologists in Australia. They hope to encourage doctors around the world to do the same.

Dr. Fatima Cardoso, director of the breast department at the Champalimaud Clinical Center in Lisbon, Portugal, endorsed the conference approach.

The physician, who was not involved in the study, said: This tool for calculating and sharing the three scenarios offers physicians the help they need to interact with patients in a realistic and useful way. to communicate.

& # 39; Research shows that patients who discuss these problems with their physicians have a better quality of life, are less likely to undergo aggressive resuscitation and are less likely to die in the hospital.

& # 39; But we also know that many patients do not have these conversations.

& # 39; Most patients with advanced cancer want some information about how long they are likely to live, although many say they find it difficult to ask this question. & # 39;

One in eight UK and US women will develop breast cancer at some point in their lives, according to statistics from Cancer Research UK.

In the UK, triple negative breast cancer accounts for 15 percent of cases of the disease – around 7,500 people a year.

And in the US, according to Breastcancer.org, it is responsible for 10 to 20 percent of breast cancer

The chances of long-term survival are better the earlier the cancer is diagnosed.

About nine out of ten women live older than five years if they are diagnosed with the first phase of breast cancer.

Phase one describes a tumor less than 2 cm long and cancer that has not spread throughout the body.

But the five-year survival rate dropped to one in 10 for those diagnosed with stage four breast cancer – when cancer has spread to other organs in the body.